Sox interested in Carlos Gonzalez

[bschmaranz]

1. They wouldn't, but they'd take him if it meant getting back a very high quality prospect like Anderson.

2. A declining Reyes is still leagues a head of the trash put out by most teams at SS. His salary is a bit high, not sure how to work with that. Domestic violence issue is a non-factor here. We are going for it all.

3. You'd be going for it with Gonzalez, Cespedes, Reyes. Uh, Yeah babyyy.

 

3b Frazier

SS Reyes

2b Lawrie

1b Abreu

C who cares

OF Gonzalez, Cespedes, Eaton

DH Whoevers left

 

Hell yeah

 

You forgot to make that green.

 

[BlackSox13]

Nobody wants Adam LaRoche. Nobody wants Jose Reyes.

Yep. I'll take one year of LaRoche at 13M and hope for the best instead 2 years 48M of Reyes wife abusing ass.

 

I strongly disagree.

Absolutely agree!

 

Also, where are people getting the idea that we may get both Cespedes and Gonzalez?

Apparently they have the inside scoop to White Sox finances or JR is playing with Monopoly money.

[coco1997]

2) why in the hell would the Sox want a declining Reyes, his 22M annual salary through '17 and his domestic violence nonsense?

 

Wouldn't be the first time the Sox acquired an alleged wife beater. Remember Brett Myers?

 

 

[caulfield12]

Yep. I'll take one year of LaRoche at 13M and hope for the best instead 2 years 48M of Reyes wife abusing ass.

 

 

Absolutely agree!

 

 

Apparently they have the inside scoop to White Sox finances or JR is playing with Monopoly money.

 

This is equally likely.

 

Raymond Reddington pilfered the new $100 bill printing plates and paid back JR for a past favor.

[caulfield12]

Wouldn't be the first time the Sox acquired an alleged wife beater. Remember Brett Myers?

 

That was one half season as opposed to a four year commitment.

 

Wil Cordero and D'Angelo Jimenez came with flashing warning signs as well...Albert Belle, etc.

 

Probably not the best marketing moves from the standpoint of the female portion of the fanbase...yeah yeah, doesn't get in the way of the NFL's profits machine. Always the counterargument.

Edited January 9, 2016 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

CarGo makes sense in that he will be the least expensive option is younger than Cespedes, plays RF, and fits in the three year window that the Sox supposedly do not want to surpass. I imagine a package would be built around Anderson and Fulmer to get the deal done with some other pieces thrown in there.

 

Cargo and Cespedes are almost the exact same age. Cargo born 1 day before Cespedes.

[caulfield12]

But it was a never-ending day!

[BlackSox13]

This is equally likely.

 

Raymond Reddington pilfered the new $100 bill printing plates and paid back JR for a past favor.

Catch me if you can!

[BlackSox13]

Wouldn't be the first time the Sox acquired an alleged wife beater. Remember Brett Myers?

You cannot be serious. This is your justification for the idea of trading for Reyes?

 

Forget that Reyes could likely serve a suspension. Forget Reyes is owed 48M including an '18 buyout. Forget that Reyes is declining. Forget Anderson should be ready before Reyes' current contract expires. f*** Reyes, he's the Rockies problem.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

f*** Reyes and his s***ty defense. No thanks

[GreenSox]

Trade the farm for him. Better than making JR go 5 years.

The Sox are just a Cargo away.

[GGajewski18]

Trade the farm for him. Better than making JR go 5 years.

The Sox are just a Cargo away.

 

This has to be sarcasm coming from you.

[GreenSox]

Often injured and huge home and away splits his entire career.

 

Last year he was .243/.294/.464 on the road. His road OPS for his career is over 200 points less than it is at home. If you don't like Cespedes' OBP, you aren't going to like GarGo's. No reason to give up top prospects for him when alternatives cost just money. If they want Anderson or Fulmer or Q, just hang up the phone. They are going nowhere anyway.

Exactly (plus hang up the phone with Adams as well).

 

[knightni]

You bring up a fantastic point that I overlooked. Throw in Reyes to the deal, now we don't even need to sign Alexi. I think you could be my VP if we were in business together.

How long would this business be open and not bankrupt?

[BlackSox13]

How long would this business be open and not bankrupt?

About as long as it takes for smart Baseball fans to find a new favorite team. So, not long at all.

 

That said, Jose Reyes is a TRUE hero! Bet the house on it.

[BlackSox13]

Interesting perspective from a Rockies fan POV. I don't think it's any one particular thing keeping Colorado from trading CarGo but I'd venture to guess their FO is over valuing CarGo in a market full of OF options.

 

http://www.purplerow.com/2016/1/10/1071374...lb-trade-rumors

 

"Colorado Rockies trade rumors: A number of things could be delaying a Carlos Gonzalez deal"

Edited January 10, 2016 by BlackSox13

[OmarComing25]

http://www.purplerow.com/2016/1/10/1071374...7242.1436820968

 

Some possible reasons for why CarGo hasn't been traded yet.

 

From that article I also found this other article that talks about the Coors Hangover effect, and how Rockies' hitters have to face a sharp adjustment whenever they go on the road, and their performance away from home suffers more than any other team. Pretty interesting article about how you can't just use road numbers for Rockies' hitters to judge them.

 

http://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/15/5712224...mbers-are-lying

 

Now the plot really thickens. While the data does confirm the general idea of teams naturally hitting better at home than on the road due to familiarly of playing in the same park over and over again, the rest of the National League falls into a pile where that advantage is confined to a small window between four and nine notches on the wRC+ scale. If you average out the difference in wRC+ numbers at home and on the road for the other 14 National League teams, it comes to a difference of seven.

 

However, for the Rockies, that number jumps to a staggering 17, which is miles and miles outside of what we see from any other team. Again, with a park adjusted stat like wRC+, we shouldn't see wildness like this. It's supposed to compensate for the environment and tell us how good a player or team is offensively regardless of location or time.

 

This leads us to a chilling reality where one of two earth-shattering notes almost has to be true. Either wRC+ is wrong when it comes to the Rockies and how it adjusts its formula to Coors Field, or the Rockies are playing a game that's rigged against them.

 

If the former explanation is correct, the road wRC+ numbers are correct and the Park Effect formula does not penalize our hitters enough for the offensive boon they receive for playing 81 games a year a mile above sea level. In this scenario, the Rockies have actually put the worst offensive product on the field in the National League since 2002 as indicated by their road wRC+ number. It's only been masked by the generosity of Coors Field and the inability of wRC+ to properly account for it. It seems unlikely with guys like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gonzalez on these rosters, but it would fit one of the plausible scenarios.

 

If the second explanation is correct, wRC+ is accurately (or very close to accurately) accounting for Coors Field, and in that scenario the Rockies since 2002 have actually put out an offense closer to the 99 wRC+ number. However, because the Rockies' hitters have to adjust to the abrupt changes in breaking pitches at sea level, their offense gets considerably worse on the road to the point where it causes them to lose an extra handful of games every season that no other team would lose.

Edited January 11, 2016 by OmarComing25

[QuickJones81]

http://www.purplerow.com/2016/1/10/1071374...7242.1436820968

 

Some possible reasons for why CarGo hasn't been traded yet.

 

From that article I also found this other article that talks about the Coors Hangover effect, and how Rockies' hitters have to face a sharp adjustment whenever they go on the road, and their performance away from home suffers more than any other team. Pretty interesting article about how you can't just use road numbers for Rockies' hitters to judge them.

 

http://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/15/5712224...mbers-are-lying

 

A good case study would be to see how players wRC+ splits compare before and after leaving the Rockies. Take Tulo, Holliday, etc. and see how their road wRC+ changed being a Rockie, and in their new home. You could do it for guys like Morneau who became a Rockie after life elsewhere. Without actually doing the work, and buying into your second article, I'm guessing you find the home numbers comes down a bit, and the road numbers come up to a greater degree. This would mean overall wRC+ might actually come up after leaving Colorado.

[caulfield12]

A good case study would be to see how players wRC+ splits compare before and after leaving the Rockies. Take Tulo, Holliday, etc. and see how their road wRC+ changed being a Rockie, and in their new home. You could do it for guys like Morneau who became a Rockie after life elsewhere. Without actually doing the work, and buying into your second article, I'm guessing you find the home numbers comes down a bit, and the road numbers come up to a greater degree. This would mean overall wRC+ might actually come up after leaving Colorado.

 

Except with Morneau it's hard to isolate and discoonect here from health-related issues.

 

Maybe Cuddyer and Fowler as well...

[Balta1701]

A good case study would be to see how players wRC+ splits compare before and after leaving the Rockies. Take Tulo, Holliday, etc. and see how their road wRC+ changed being a Rockie, and in their new home. You could do it for guys like Morneau who became a Rockie after life elsewhere. Without actually doing the work, and buying into your second article, I'm guessing you find the home numbers comes down a bit, and the road numbers come up to a greater degree. This would mean overall wRC+ might actually come up after leaving Colorado.

Biggest part of the problem is that for the big name guys there's not enough data to really say it with confidence and other things muck stuff up.

 

For example, Troy Tulowitzki was surprisingly awful with the bat in Toronto last year even before he got hurt. RC+ declined from 104 to 91. What will he do next year? I don't know yet.

 

Holliday is an interesting case. When he left Colorado for Oakland his RC+ declined from 141 to 123. But then he went back to the NL in the 2nd half of the season and his RC+ shot back up to 168. Did he just hate playing in Oakland? Did he just really know NL pitchers better? Or could it be that there's an adjustment time once you leave Coors to get your swing into a mode that works elsewhere?

 

Morneau had a 107 RC+ last year, but that was in

 

I think the reality is that there's way too many "mitigating factors" to say we have a 100% confident trend. If you had to guess you'd say his production would dip down some but not hugely, but with both upside chances and downside risk. Dexter fowler left and his batting improve while his defense took a nose dive, then he went to chicago and his defense recovered but his bat weakened. There are some guys who declined more seriously, but some of them were players who were already struggling in Colorado.

 

Unfortunately there's no easy answer. The Rockies bats should not be as good at home and as bad on the road as they actually are unless there is a huge effect of players acting differently, but there's enough complication that there's no easy trend when players arrive and leave. Most of the time you expect you're ok trading for one, but there's always going to be a risk involved. How much risk are you willing to take?

 

If it turns out that Cargo can't adapt his game well outside of Coors next year, is our roster ok with that? Are we hanging our entire season and several future seasons on that chance?

[Jose Abreu]

My biggest concern with Gonzalez isn't the Coors effect, it's his chronic health issues. I really hope he's just a backup plan to a FA OF.

[iamshack]

My biggest concern with Gonzalez isn't the Coors effect, it's his chronic health issues. I really hope he's just a backup plan to a FA OF.

We've done pretty well on that front.

[Jose Abreu]

We've done pretty well on that front.

While we do tend to do well with injury prevention, it seems like our injuries happen to the star players. Quentin, Sale, Abreu, Eaton to name a few

[caulfield12]

We've done pretty well on that front.

 

This was true with the players that we acquired from 2004-2006 (Dye, for example, or Thome) and less so as time went on.

 

If you look at examples like Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Jenks, Crede, Crain.

 

By and large, we've had good health in recent years (across complementary or secondary players), but the times we have had health issues, the impact has been higher because they were often core pieces that were hurt and/or getting older.

 

Then you have Eaton because of his style of play and Sale just for the torque on his body parts over time...not to mention Abreu's lower body issues caused by the sheer size of him.

[BlackSox13]

Because I am a pathetically bored Sox fan, I'll play devil's advocate.

 

We did trade for Lawrie, despite his pre '15 health issues.

 

I will say this for CarGo, he played 153 games with over 600 PA in '15 so he has that going for him.