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Ian Kennedy to the Royals


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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 09:55 AM)
Ventura

Volquez

Kennedy

Medlen

Young

Duffy

Jason Vargas (back at midseason from TJ)

Zimmer

 

The one thing they do have is some depth now...

I know you love random pulled out of mid air made up percentages, sothat clubhouse convo guy said Vargas has about a .1 % chance of pitching for the Royals this season.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 10:18 AM)
I know you love random pulled out of mid air made up percentages, sothat clubhouse convo guy said Vargas has about a .1 % chance of pitching for the Royals this season.

 

They're certainly better off taking the insurance settlement and not pushing him to return at all this season.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 09:11 AM)
Should be interesting to see how Kennedy's stats translate to the AL with the DH. If he pitches well, the Royals gave him a good contract but if he doesn't the Royals are stuck like a pig. I guess that's the gamble though.

 

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien 40m40 minutes ago

Royals reach 5-year, $70 million deal with Ian Kennedy. In his career against the American League, he's 6-17 with a 5.48 ERA.

 

Did the Royals even do their research on him? This is a puzzling move...

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 10:22 AM)
This contract makes literally no f***ing sense.

 

Why not use that $70 million to try to lock up one of their stars (Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, etc) rather than signing an aging NL pitcher? I don't get it, but more power to them.

 

Cain just signed a two year extension but not into free agency because of his relatively older age.

 

Boras will take both those guys into free agency no matter what...especially Hosmer since he will be Heyward's age.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 10:22 AM)
This contract makes literally no f***ing sense.

 

Why not use that $70 million to try to lock up one of their stars (Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, etc) rather than signing an aging NL pitcher? I don't get it, but more power to them.

Because they need pitching and can't afford to pay much. That's why they needed to sign the second tier pitching.

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 10:22 AM)
This contract makes literally no f***ing sense.

 

Why not use that $70 million to try to lock up one of their stars (Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, etc) rather than signing an aging NL pitcher? I don't get it, but more power to them.

 

Hosmer and Moustakas are Boras clients correct? No way they'd be able to re-sign them if that's the case.

 

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 12:17 PM)
Hosmer and Moustakas are Boras clients correct? No way they'd be able to re-sign them if that's the case.

 

Yep.

 

Most KC fans feel Hosmer will leave because he will be near to Heyward's age at the time of free agency and that Moustakas has a very slight chance of sticking around and not wanting to be closer to the West Coast.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 12:47 PM)
I doubt they'd have the cojones, but wonder if they would be willing to move Hosmer and Moustakas after 2016 to avoid losing them for nothing.

Given the Kennedy deal, I think they're going all-in the next two years regardless of the long-term consequences. Nothing would make me happier than watching the Royals be cellar dwellers once again.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 01:15 PM)
That's almost what a small market team has to do...maximize the contention window and then bottom out and rebuild with high draft picks for 3-5 years.

 

It makes more sense than trying to spend your way into contention every season.

Rebuild 3-5 years? I'm pretty K.C.'s last go around was like 20 years.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 03:22 PM)
lol 0.8 WAR last year and he gets $14 million a year for 5 years. This market...

3.5 fWAR the year before that and his strikeout rate and walk rate both improved in 2015 (he threw fewer innings which FG weights pretty heavily and his HR rate skyrocketed).

 

I wouldn't have done it, if I were spending that money I'd have spent it earlier this offseason when there were better options, but there's some logic here.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 04:16 PM)
3.5 fWAR the year before that and his strikeout rate and walk rate both improved in 2015 (he threw fewer innings which FG weights pretty heavily and his HR rate skyrocketed).

 

I wouldn't have done it, if I were spending that money I'd have spent it earlier this offseason when there were better options, but there's some logic here.

And an 0.6 WAR the year before that. And they gave him $70 million, surrendered the 24th pick in the draft,and are most likely stuck with him for 5 years.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 16, 2016 -> 04:16 PM)
3.5 fWAR the year before that and his strikeout rate and walk rate both improved in 2015 (he threw fewer innings which FG weights pretty heavily and his HR rate skyrocketed).

 

I wouldn't have done it, if I were spending that money I'd have spent it earlier this offseason when there were better options, but there's some logic here.

 

5 WAR over the last 3 years in a good pitcher's park. You can maybe argue he's an average starter. I don't think $14 million/year is necessarily the issue, it's the fact that they gave him $70 million guaranteed.

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Still surprised they didn't go with Latos.

 

The connection to Dave Eisland from his NY days, the elevated K (9+) and missed bats rate, the outfield size and defense (compared to the SD trainwreck) behind him...those were the 3 main reasons.

 

Still waiting to see how front or backloaded the deal is...will have a lot to do with how long he ends up in KC.

 

Backloaded, more flexibility for additional moves this season and next...frontloaded, much better likelihood he opts out after 2017.

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http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...s-city-rotation. Crasnick's take

 

"For sake of comparison, San Diego’s Petco Park was the 10th-friendliest home run park in the majors last season, while Kauffman Stadium ranked 25th."

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/i...for-ian-kennedy

 

"Since the beginning of the 2010 season, when Kennedy broke into a major league starting rotation, he ranks 14th in the majors in innings pitched. That workload indicates some level of performance, although his Wins Above Replacement during the past six seasons (9.6) ranks 27th among 35 pitchers with at least 1,000 innings. He hasn’t posted a WAR of more than 2.3 in a season since his 21-4, 1.09 WHIP, 3.6 strikeout-to-walk showing of 2011."

 

Fwiw, Keith Law was a huge skeptic of the deal as well.

 

ROYALS PAY STEEP PRICE FOR IAN KENNEDY

"There's more downside than upside here for the Royals, and even with the big revenue boost they should receive off their 2015 World Series win, they will have a hard time carrying a contract like this if it goes south and they need to spend more money to fill the same need," Keith Law writes. Analyzing Kennedy, Davis deals (Insider)

 

 

In the end, it was all about insurance/protection for Medlen, Young and Duffy...

Edited by caulfield12
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