White Sox interested in SS Ian Desmond

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

You kind of make my point by bringing Alexei into the discussion. Alexei's RngR and UZR are considerably worse than Desmond's so less errors are going to happen when a player cannot get to as many balls in play. Desmond had 9 throwing errors last season and Alexei had 10. I think Desmond's capability of getting to more balls in play than Alexei led to some additional errors made by Desmond, at least to some extent.

 

I'm not saying Desmond is a good SS but I'm not saying he isn't bad either. His defensive numbers are just plain weird to me.

 

I'm definitely up for the idea of Ethier since upgrading the OF is a bigger necessity than SS. Jay Bruce on the other hand comes with the same question marks as Desmond so I can't see how someone would be against Desmond and yet be fine with Bruce. Bruce took a few steps back last year defensively, much like Desmond.

I want absolutely nothing to do with Ethier.

 

old + expensive = bad

Edited January 27, 2016 by ChiSoxFanMike

[OmarComing25]

Anyway you cut it, this guy made 27 errors last year and 24 the year before that. Alexei made 16 last year, just for comparison. He is not a reliable defender, and therefore not what we need to resolve our problem.

We've long moved past just looking at # of errors to determine good defense. That's just lazy analysis.

[CB2.0]

I wouldn't go so far as to call it lazy analysis. And I'm a guy that likes advanced statistics, but the defensive ones still leave a ton to be desired.

 

In order for an error to be recorded, that means that a fielder:

Has to play a ball in such a way as to allow a batter or baserunner to advance one or more bases or, allows an at bat to continue after the batter should have been put out.

This is the problem I have with the "Well, he just has great range, and is getting to balls that most ordinary fielders wouldn't".

 

If that were true, he wouldn't be charged with an error. He's clearly doing things.....LOTS OF THINGS...that cost BASES. At least 11 more bases than a bad Alexei year, and most likely a lot more than just 11.

Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0

[shipps]

We've long moved past just looking at # of errors to determine good defense. That's just lazy analysis.

 

I am not sure of that. Of all the metrics I think the defense metrics are the furthest away of giving accurate assessments. Just for the fact of the team's positioning of that individual fielder can effect that given play. Maybe they positioned him in a bad spot or maybe the fielder positioned himself in a bad spot.

 

I just dont look too much into defensive metrics. But thats just me.

[OmarComing25]

I didn't say to ignore errors, but saying things like "he makes a lot of errors so he's not a good defender" is short-sighted.

[shipps]

I didn't say to ignore errors, but saying things like "he makes a lot of errors so he's not a good defender" is short-sighted.

 

I would say ignoring errors because you have a lot of confidence in defensive metrics is also short sighted.

 

But I do agree that saying that errors is the be all end all is not a way to properly assess a guys defense.

[OmarComing25]

I wouldn't go so far as to call it lazy analysis. And I'm a guy that likes advanced statistics, but the defensive ones still leave a ton to be desired.

 

In order for an error to be recorded, that means that a fielder:

 

This is the problem I have with the "Well, he just has great range, and is getting to balls that most ordinary fielders wouldn't".

 

If that were true, he wouldn't be charged with an error. He's clearly doing things.....LOTS OF THINGS...that cost BASES. At least 11 more bases than a bad Alexei year, and most likely a lot more than just 11.

That's just not true. There are dozens of examples every year of plays being mistakenly marked as errors or non-errors, it's a subjective judgment call, and if a player gets to a ball that leads to an error he's not giving up extra bases if the other player doesn't even get to the ball. You're also completely ignoring throwing errors, which can easily happen on balls the defender with poorer range doesn't get to.

[blackmooncreeping]

Anyway you cut it, this guy made 27 errors last year and 24 the year before that. Alexei made 16 last year, just for comparison. He is not a reliable defender, and therefore not what we need to resolve our problem.

 

More and more I am beginning to believe that either Ethier or Jay Bruce is the best available OF answer, and we stick with Saladino at SS. And that is assuming that : a) we get the Dodgers to eat some money for Ethier; and b) we give up the likes of no more than a Guerrero or Phillips. We could keep Avi to platoon DH with LaRoche.

Jay Bruce is god awful and not a big improvement over Avi. No thanks to Bruce.

[CB2.0]

That's just not true. There are dozens of examples every year of plays being mistakenly marked as errors or non-errors, it's a subjective judgment call, and if a player gets to a ball that leads to an error he's not giving up extra bases if the other player doesn't even get to the ball. You're also completely ignoring throwing errors, which can easily happen on balls the defender with poorer range doesn't get to.

 

The scoring of an error is subjective - I agree with you, but a throwing error is not. A tough throw on a ball fielded that others wouldn't ordinarily be able to field, yet is errant, is still a bad decision. It's a point I think YOU are ignoring. Nobody is charged with an error for fielding a ball deep in the hole, and holding onto it.

 

As for dozens of examples - I'd like to see that, but recall that we're talking about over a dozen difference in errors just between a bad 2015 Alexei and a 2015 Desmond just in this example. Are you suggesting that 16 additional errors charged to Desmond were likely erroneous too? If so, that's a big pill.

 

[bear_brian]

That's just not true. There are dozens of examples every year of plays being mistakenly marked as errors or non-errors, it's a subjective judgment call, and if a player gets to a ball that leads to an error he's not giving up extra bases if the other player doesn't even get to the ball. You're also completely ignoring throwing errors, which can easily happen on balls the defender with poorer range doesn't get to.

 

If the shortstop with great range gets to the ball in the hole, makes the throw to first and throws it away, the batter winds up on second base. If that ball is not fielded, the batter is only on first. That errant throw DOES have a potential effect on the inning, on the pitcher and possibly on the outcome of the game. Ask the Sox pitchers when Jose Valentine played SS.

 

 

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

If the shortstop with great range gets to the ball in the hole, makes the throw to first and throws it away, the batter winds up on second base. If that ball is not fielded, the batter is only on first. That errant throw DOES have a potential effect on the inning, on the pitcher and possibly on the outcome of the game. Ask the Sox pitchers when Jose Valentine played SS.

Not all bad throws result in the batter getting to second. Just say'in.

[Eminor3rd]

Here's the thing about Desmond: if he didn't have warts, he wouldn't be available to us at all.

 

The play on Desmond is that he's been a star player for a LOT longer than he's been a scrub since his breakout -- you pick him up hoping that his most recent crap-stretch was temporary and conveniently located right before he became a free agent. If you have reason to believe he's cooked, you leave him alone. but I don't think any of US have evidence to suggest either outcome is more likely. He have to trust (hope) that if the Sox get him, it's because they're evaluations say he's alright.

 

But either way, we're not talking about paying him the $100m he'd have already secured if he just put up another 4-win season. His recent performance and draft pick compensation will be baked into the price he can command.

[shysocks]

Errors are bad. I don't think anybody is disputing that. I'd like it if Sox players never made errors.

 

But they're just a deficient way of judging a fielder. They don't tell you nearly enough. I don't even know if a guy who leads the league in errors at his position is good or not.

[bear_brian]

Errors are bad. I don't think anybody is disputing that. I'd like it if Sox players never made errors.

 

But they're just a deficient way of judging a fielder. They don't tell you nearly enough. I don't even know if a guy who leads the league in errors at his position is good or not.

 

You are absolutely correct. I was only trying to compare Desmond to Alexei with reference to our need for defense at that position.

[CB2.0]

Errors alone are not enough...at least without context.

 

In Desmond's case, he committed the most in his league last year, and the next closest guy committed nearly 30% less.

 

I think its pretty safe to say you're not very good defensively in that context, without the need for an in-depth advanced defensive stat analysis.

Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0

[OmarComing25]

Errors alone are not enough...at least without context.

 

In Desmond's case, he committed the most in his league last year, and the next closest guy committed nearly 30% less.

 

I think its pretty safe to say you're not very good defensively in that context, without the need for an in-depth advanced defensive stat analysis.

Lorenzo Cain led all CF in errors last year, and his total was 30% higher than the next guy too. Ian Kinsler is among the leaders in errors at 2B every year. Josh Donaldson has the most errors of any 3B over the last 3 years. Errors need context.

[bschmaranz]

Lorenzo Cain led all CF in errors last year, and his total was 30% higher than the next guy too. Ian Kinsler is among the leaders in errors at 2B every year. Josh Donaldson has the most errors of any 3B over the last 3 years. Errors need context.

 

Frazier led the NL in errors at 3B last year. Still considered a solid guy on the hot corner. Just more fuel on that fire, hehe.

Edited January 27, 2016 by bschmaranz

[CB2.0]

Lorenzo Cain led all CF in errors last year, and his total was 30% higher than the next guy too. Ian Kinsler is among the leaders in errors at 2B every year. Josh Donaldson has the most errors of any 3B over the last 3 years. Errors need context.

Now you're just being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative...or disingenuous.

 

There's a big difference between 27 errors (Desmond) and 10 (Cain/Kinsler). That 30% is roughly equivalent to the TOTALS of the guys you try to use as examples.

 

Also, Donaldson's "league leading"18 errors are evenly matched with Lawrie, and just a single error away from guys like Arrenado, Beltre, and Bryant.

 

Yes - context.

 

Frazier led the NL in errors at 3B last year. Still considered a solid guy on the hot corner. Just more fuel on that fire, hehe.

No, that's not more fuel because his league leading number of errors is only 2 more than the 3 I mentioned above (+10% ). That's not remarkably significant. Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0

[OmarComing25]

Now you're just being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative...or disingenuous.

 

There's a big difference between 27 errors (Desmond) and 10 (Cain/Kinsler). That 30% is roughly equivalent to the TOTALS of the guys you try to use as examples.

 

Also, Donaldson's "league leading"18 errors are evenly matched with Lawrie, and just a single error away from guys like Arrenado, Beltre, and Bryant.

 

Yes - context.

You can't compare CF and SS by total number of errors, because shortstops in general are always going to have a lot more errors. The point was that Cain had the most errors at his position, but no one is going to say he's a bad or even average defender. Also doesn't your 3B example just help prove my point? Donaldson, Arenado and Beltre all have glowing defensive reputations, yet they were among the league leaders in errors.

Edited January 27, 2016 by OmarComing25

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Lorenzo Cain led all CF in errors last year, and his total was 30% higher than the next guy too. Ian Kinsler is among the leaders in errors at 2B every year. Josh Donaldson has the most errors of any 3B over the last 3 years. Errors need context.

 

Sometimes you take the good with the bad. Like Abreu. His defense isn't stellar.

[Eminor3rd]

Sometimes you take the good with the bad. Like Abreu. His defense isn't stellar.

 

His point is that all of those guys are elite defenders.

[CB2.0]

You can't compare CF and SS by total number of errors, because shortstops in general are always going to have a lot more errors. The point was that Cain had the most errors at this position, but no one is going to say he's a bad or even average defender. Also doesn't your 3B example just help prove my point? Donaldson, Arenado and Beltre all have glowing defensive reputations, yet they were among the league leaders in errors.

Of course you can't - I'm not the one that introduced comparisons between SS and CFers. My point is that if you look at just errors as a means to evaluate defensive capability, and you put in context with the league...and see a HUGE difference like you do with Desmond (and you don't with the examples you gave)....one can REASONABLY settle on the idea that Desmond is really NOT a good defensive SS.

 

You said looking at errors is lazy, and I'm saying that with Desmond....just looking at errors (and how many he is charged with...comparatively)....is, probably, enough and not a lazy analysis.

 

Look, I see value in advanced stats as I mentioned earlier. But you don't always need them for evaluating everyone and everything, and it's not fair to call a guy lazy for reaching a conclusion when, in this case, it's clearly not necessary.

Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0

[Knackattack]

Of course you can't - I'm not the one that introduced comparisons between SS and CFers. My point is that if you look at just errors as a means to evaluate defensive capability, and you put in context with the league...and see a HUGE difference like you with Desmond (and you don't with the examples you gave)....one can REASONABLY settle on the idea that Desmond is really NOT a good defensive SS.

 

You said looking at errors is lazy, and I'm saying that with Desmond....just looking at errors (and how many he is charged with...comparatively)....is, probably, enough and not a lazy analysis.

I think Desmond committed like 30% of his errors in the first 12 games of the season.. his entire bad year is kind of attributed to pressing too hard to not look like an idiot for turning down the 107m or whatever washington offered him. Desmond is a guy with good range and a strong arm but those are the types of guys that are likely to commit an error trying to make a play on balls most guys don't get to (that would go through as hits anyway), so some of it has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Knackattack

[caulfield12]

Okay...but then you're not also looking at 2012-2014....

 

Or the fact he made 8 errors in 15 games, temporarily/anomalously had the yips and then had 19 for the remainder of the season.

 

If you go back a decade or so, we had this exact same debate with Clayton and Valentin, who made 25% more errors than Desmond last year but always had amongst the top 3-5 in total chances and top 2-3 arms in the game at that position. KW got fooled by Clayton's error totals being so low.

[CB2.0]

I think Desmond committed like 30% of his errors in the first 12 games of the season.. his entire bad year is kind of attributed to pressing too hard to not look like an idiot for turning down the 107m or whatever washington offered him. Desmond is a guy with good range and a strong arm but those are the types of guys that are likely to commit an error trying to make a play on balls most guys don't get to (that would go through as hits anyway), so some of it has to be taken with a grain of salt.

So what would be different on a 1 year deal?

 

Can we afford to continue to compromise defense in the hopes for a bigger bat?

 

What about Anderson?

 

Is it worth $12-14M?

 

I look at all these things and think, no.

Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0