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Fangraphs WAR projections for Sox


southsider2k5

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 03:42 PM)

Was about to create this thread.

 

We could use an outfielder - anybody noticed that yet?

 

Full post at fangraphs coming tomorrow. Comes out to 38 WAR from the chart, 19 from the pitching staff and 19 from the lineup. 38 WAR roughly vaguely sorta translates to about an 86-76 record which is significantly better than I would have guessed.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 03:43 PM)
Was about to create this thread.

 

We could use an outfielder - anybody noticed that yet?

 

Full post at fangraphs coming tomorrow. Comes out to 38 WAR from the chart, 19 from the pitching staff and 19 from the lineup. 38 WAR roughly vaguely sorta translates to about an 86-76 record which is significantly better than I would have guessed.

 

Yeup. A 38 WAR basically equated to a playoff team last year. Loving those projections, time to address RF and be done for the offseason.

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 03:54 PM)
Yeup. A 38 WAR basically equated to a playoff team last year. Loving those projections, time to address RF and be done for the offseason.

If these are accurate that's great. Q finally gets a little love from ZiPS. Optimism around Saladino, catchers, bullpen surprises me. The last may be Nate Jones related?

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QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 03:56 PM)
That's pretty generous for Garcia

 

Generous for LaRoche too.

 

Surprised to see Avila and Navarro with 3 WAR at catcher.

 

Also Saladino at 2 WAR...wow.

Edited by chw42
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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 03:58 PM)
If these are accurate that's great. Q finally gets a little love from ZiPS. Optimism around Saladino, catchers, bullpen surprises me. The last may be Nate Jones related?

 

I think the catchers are perfectly capable of combining for 3 WAR, Saladino I'm not sure about being a 2 win player. You really, really need to get another OFer though, you cannot start the season with Avi in RF.

 

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The more I think about it I am leaning towards more in building upon our strengths instead of trying to make our weakness average at best.

 

Go get another starter like Gallardo or make a trade for a solid number 3/4 to put in your 4 spot and have Danks/EJ compete for spot number 5. If you are going to do anything next year its going to have to be through pitching and defense. Get a defense only guy to put in RF and be ok with knowing you may not get much out of the bat but that they will save you some runs here or there. Come to terms with Saladino playing good defense at short and possibly getting little out of his at bat. The pen already looks good for next year. You have added a couple of good bats to the offense so its not like they havent addressed the lineup at all. They did enough to get by with a great pitching staff. So they better make for damn sure that the starting staff is great.

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Ya the Saladino one is the one that surprises me most. I think our catchers managed correctly are above average so not surprised there but I think those projections are a bit optimistic on Tyler. Nice to see though.

 

But yes, go get an outfielder please. Please. Please.

Edited by Rowand44
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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 04:07 PM)
Ya the Saladino one is the one that surprises me most. I think our catchers managed correctly are above average so not surprised there but I think those projections are a bit optimistic on Tyler. Nice to see though.

 

But yes, go get an outfielder please. Please. Please.

 

Defense and speed add to Saladino's projection. Kind of the anti-Avi

 

I'd be curious to see where Sanchez would fit at SS or 2B.

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QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 04:44 PM)
Defense and speed add to Saladino's projection. Kind of the anti-Avi

 

I'd be curious to see where Sanchez would fit at SS or 2B.

 

He certainly was one of our best base runners immediately.

 

I really hope he's a 2 WAR player.

 

Cespedes/Gordon/Upton would have basically doubled our value in OF. Really, really agree with Shipps, at this point, would be fine if we just rolled with Jackson + flyers on SP. I don't know that Gallardo comes all that cheap despite it being late.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:58 PM)
Optimism around Saladino, catchers, bullpen surprises me.

 

I'm not pessimistic about Saladino, but the projection seems to assume his elite 3rd base defense will morph into elite SS defense, and I don't think a reasonable person assumes he's that much better than average at SS. Not knocking him, just probably isn't top 5 in baseball. I'd be fine with him as shortstop, but I think Desmond is potentially too good of a deal to pass up.

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QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 05:33 PM)
I'm not pessimistic about Saladino, but the projection seems to assume his elite 3rd base defense will morph into elite SS defense, and I don't think a reasonable person assumes he's that much better than average at SS. Not knocking him, just probably isn't top 5 in baseball. I'd be fine with him as shortstop, but I think Desmond is potentially too good of a deal to pass up.

 

Seems like a reasonable assumption given that he came up as a SS, and should be a more natural position.

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QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 05:33 PM)
I'm not pessimistic about Saladino, but the projection seems to assume his elite 3rd base defense will morph into elite SS defense, and I don't think a reasonable person assumes he's that much better than average at SS. Not knocking him, just probably isn't top 5 in baseball. I'd be fine with him as shortstop, but I think Desmond is potentially too good of a deal to pass up.

 

I'll keep the pick and roll the dice on Saladino till Anderson is ready

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QUOTE (glangon @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 05:10 AM)
Interestingly enough, the bullpen WAR doesn't include Matt Albers, I wonder if that Pen WAR would increase even more with Albers added to that mix.

 

Also, did anyone else notice that they had a platoon of Olt and La Roche.

Quick check around the Central - they have the White Sox bullpen as the only bullpen in the AL Central putting up 4. Including the Royals. Somehow I'm skeptical about a prediction of the White Sox bullpen being more valuable than the Royals as is, so adding Albers doesn't seem like a difference maker there.

 

Quick count shows the Royals coming in at about 34-35 (had to guess for Kennedy and Gordon, done before those signings) and the Indians and Tigers at 37.

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I'm not really surprised by it.

 

Here's the ERA+ from the pen last year:

Albers 326

Jones 120

DUke 115

Robertson 115

Petricka 108

Jennings 98

Putnam 96

 

Now obviously Albers isn't going to repeat that number, but if your worst reliever has an ERA+ of 96, that's an awfully solid pen.

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You almost have to get regression from Davis and Herrera.

 

That said, Collins and Duffy will be a huge upgrade over Morales from the LH side, one of the biggest weaknesses last year.

 

Soria is possibly a wash with Madson, but Madson put up some pretty eye-popping numbers.

 

Hochevar's better two years removed from TJ, in theory.

 

Chris Young, Duffy, Dillon Gee all in the running for long man or fifth...no Blanton as well, who had surprisingly good numbers last year, aided primarily by stadium and defense.

 

 

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