OmarComing25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Projected numbers: Sale: 2.99 ERA Quintana: 3.73 ERA Rodon: 3.81 ERA Johnson: 4.70 ERA Danks: 4.88 ERA Beck: 5.38 ERA Carroll: 5.35 ERA Turner: 5.98 ERA Frazier: .255/.318/.449 Eaton: .277/.352/.400 Abreu: .285/.352/.505 Lawrie: .255/.310/.406 Saladino: .232/.290/.347 Navarro: .259/.314/.385 Avila: .203/.321/.336 Melky: .281/.325/.403 LaRoche: .226/.317/.401 Garcia: .265/.311/.394 Anderson: .257/.283/.369 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:12 AM) Projected numbers: Sale: 2.99 ERA Quintana: 3.73 ERA Rodon: 3.81 ERA Johnson: 4.70 ERA Danks: 4.88 ERA Beck: 5.38 ERA Carroll: 5.35 ERA Turner: 5.98 ERA Frazier: .255/.318/.449 Eaton: .277/.352/.400 Abreu: .285/.352/.505 Lawrie: .255/.310/.406 Saladino: .232/.290/.347 Navarro: .259/.314/.385 Avila: .203/.321/.336 Melky: .281/.325/.403 LaRoche: .226/.317/.401 Garcia: .265/.311/.394 Anderson: .257/.283/.369 Those ERA projections for Quintana and Rodon are laughable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 We've got one guy who's projected to break .350 wOBA. Yuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:14 AM) Those ERA projections for Quintana and Rodon are laughable. Quintana sure, but I think that's where Rodon is expected to be ATM. His walk rate is still a bit high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:14 AM) Those ERA projections for Quintana and Rodon are laughable. Quintana's is strange not only because of the ERA, but also his projected FIP (3.29). Not sure why the projection has such a big gap between the two numbers, especially considering Quintana's career ERA (3.46) is almost identical to his career FIP (3.45). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:17 AM) Quintana's is strange not only because of the ERA, but also his projected FIP (3.29). Not sure why the projection has such a big gap between the two numbers, especially considering Quintana's career ERA (3.46) is almost identical to his career FIP (3.45). The White Sox defense sucked last year. The OF hasn't changed as of today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB2.0 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 12:17 PM) Quintana's is strange not only because of the ERA, but also his projected FIP (3.29). Not sure why the projection has such a big gap between the two numbers, especially considering Quintana's career ERA (3.46) is almost identical to his career FIP (3.45).The big uptick in ERA is odd. He's never been higher than a 3.51 in a 200IP season. The lower FIP isn't as surprising to me, as SS noted, due to the same OF defense. He's posted a FIP .5 lower than his ERA before (2014). Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The hitters actually look pretty realistic to me except maybe being a best case scenario for LaRoche (honestly). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:10 PM) The hitters actually look pretty realistic to me except maybe being a best case scenario for LaRoche (honestly). Assuming LaRoche doesn't see much time against LHP this year, I don't see that batting line as best case scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:12 AM) Projected numbers: Sale: 2.99 ERA Quintana: 3.73 ERA Rodon: 3.81 ERA Johnson: 4.70 ERA Danks: 4.88 ERA Beck: 5.38 ERA Carroll: 5.35 ERA Turner: 5.98 ERA Frazier: .255/.318/.449 Eaton: .277/.352/.400 Abreu: .285/.352/.505 Lawrie: .255/.310/.406 Saladino: .232/.290/.347 Navarro: .259/.314/.385 Avila: .203/.321/.336 Melky: .281/.325/.403 LaRoche: .226/.317/.401 Garcia: .265/.311/.394 Anderson: .257/.283/.369 These all seem very pessimistic. Sale/Quintana/Rodon/Johnson/Eaton/Abreu should all outperform these numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB2.0 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 (edited) Neither Abreu nor Frazier with 30/90? Yikes. I really hope that's not the case. And why is Viciedo on there with a 253/299/430 and 52 RBIs? Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjusttyped Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'm not sure why so many people are disappointed with Rodon's projection. If he could finish the year with an above average ERA, FIP, and be worth ~3 WAR I think that should be considered a successful season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 12:35 PM) The White Sox defense sucked last year. The OF hasn't changed as of today. QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 12:59 PM) The big uptick in ERA is odd. He's never been higher than a 3.51 in a 200IP season. The lower FIP isn't as surprising to me, as SS noted, due to the same OF defense. He's posted a FIP .5 lower than his ERA before (2014). I understand the point about the defense, but last year Quintana only had a 0.18 difference from FIP to ERA. Compare that to Danks (0.22), Sale (0.68) and Samardzija (0.73). Rodon actually is projected to have a lower ERA (3.81) than FIP (3.88). It just doesn't make sense why Quintana is projected to have the biggest FIP-ERA gap by far among all our SP (0.44), when the other starters sans Rodon all have gaps projected in the 0.20-0.25 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:15 PM) These all seem very pessimistic. Sale/Quintana/Rodon/Johnson/Eaton/Abreu should all outperform these numbers. Well, that's a better ERA than Sale put up last year and a higher OPS than Abreu put up last year. That's a little low for Eaton compared to last year but I get why a projection system would be skeptical that he can put up 2015 type HR numbers again in 2016 when he hadn't hit more than 7 in a season since he got to AA then suddenly he hit 14 last year. The youngsters...always hard to project, could be better or worse in both cases and I wouldn't be surprised. And let's not forget the world just hates Jose Quintana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:10 PM) The hitters actually look pretty realistic to me except maybe being a best case scenario for LaRoche (honestly). LaRoche is going to have a nice bounce back season. If he doesn't, they'll cut his ass by June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB2.0 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Yeah, seems so. Quintana is expected pitch nearly identical number of innings as Sale, yet yield 30 more hits to 40 more batters faced. And again - how are we getting 16HRs and 52 RBIs from a guy that was released outright....a year ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) Well, that's a better ERA than Sale put up last year and a higher OPS than Abreu put up last year. That's a little low for Eaton compared to last year but I get why a projection system would be skeptical that he can put up 2015 type HR numbers again in 2016 when he hadn't hit more than 7 in a season since he got to AA then suddenly he hit 14 last year. The youngsters...always hard to project, could be better or worse in both cases and I wouldn't be surprised. And let's not forget the world just hates Jose Quintana. Yeah I don't see anything that wrong with Eaton or Abreu's projections, especially knowing that projections are conservative by nature. However, I'd be a little more optimistic on Abreu just going by his splits. In 2014 he had a 155 wRC+ against RHP and 203 wRC+ against LHP. In 2015 he had a 144 wRC+ against RHP and 78 wRC+ against LHP. I doubt we'll see 203 wRC+ against LHP again, but that 78 seems really fluky too. I would expect a lot of improvement there, and if he stays the course against RHP, he should be better than last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:20 PM) And why is Viciedo on there with a 253/299/430 and 52 RBIs? He is? He's playing in Japan lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) Yeah, seems so. Quintana is expected pitch nearly identical number of innings as Sale, yet yield 30 more hits to 40 more batters faced. And again - how are we getting 16HRs and 52 RBIs from a guy that was released outright....a year ago? Projection systems always spit out inexplicable quirks like that. Steamer is a special offender, always having tons of guys with one plate appearance yet a triple slash like .236/.291/.358 (that's 2016 Paul Konerko). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:40 PM) LaRoche is going to have a nice bounce back season. If he doesn't, they'll cut his ass by June. In other news, the sky is blue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB2.0 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:49 PM) He is? He's playing in Japan lmao Yeah, per ZiPS, he's gonna be the 2016 Sox #3 slugger! QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:50 PM) Projection systems always spit out inexplicable quirks like that. Steamer is a special offender, always having tons of guys with one plate appearance yet a triple slash like .236/.291/.358 (that's 2016 Paul Konerko). But this is 438 trips to the plate...that's a pretty big flocking quirk considering he's not even affiliated with the team anymore. Edited January 27, 2016 by CB2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:55 PM) Yeah, per ZiPS, he's gonna be the 2016 Sox #3 slugger! But this is 438 trips to the plate...that's a pretty big flocking quirk. The projections just spit out numbers for any player who has an even remote chance to see playing time. Viciedo was probably just a mistake, but ZiPS has 476 projected PA for Gerson Montilla and 425 PA for Eudy Pina. I doubt those guys play for the 2016 White Sox either. Edited January 27, 2016 by OmarComing25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalapse Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 For reference, the 2015 Zips projections: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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