Sox/Cubs showing interest in Fowler

[southsider2k5]

670 The Score ‏@670TheScore 7m7 minutes ago

 

#Cubs, #WhiteSox continue to express interest in Dexter Fowler, @MLBBruceLevine reports: http://cbsloc.al/1QtrMyx

[shipps]

Let the Cubs have him. I am over the OF FA's, they are all over priced at the end of the day.

[caulfield12]

The way the last month has gone, the Cubs will sign him Thursday or right before SoxFest kicks off...

[fathom]

All along, I have felt the Cubs told Fowler to hold off signing with another team as they finalize a monster deal with Tampa. Recent leaks about Tampa being interested in Dickerson and Desmond seem like a push to get the Cubs to up their offer. If the sox do get a Fowler, it needs to be two years at minimum.

[southsideirish71]

Fowler is not worth what becomes a late first round draft pick.

 

If we sign him and lose the pic then keeping the Shark and offering him arbitration was just a waste of time. We should of just traded him at the deadline and picked up prospects. Its one thing to lose this pic for an Upton or Gordon. Its another thing to lose it for 2nd and 3rd tier guys.

 

 

[Baron]

I dont like Fowler. But there's no way they can go into next season with the OF as currently constructed. If they make zero moves from now until the start of the season the front office deserves to be ridiculed.

Edited January 28, 2016 by Baron

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm not a huge fan of giving up the pick, but Fowler makes a ton of sense. I would prefer Melky down in the lineup.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Fowler is not worth what becomes a late first round draft pick.

 

If we sign him and lose the pic then keeping the Shark and offering him arbitration was just a waste of time. We should of just traded him at the deadline and picked up prospects. Its one thing to lose this pic for an Upton or Gordon. Its another thing to lose it for 2nd and 3rd tier guys.

 

They already scorched the minors. What's one more pick at this point ? Mybe Fowler can be Upton- lite. Speed, some power, pretty good OPS, really good OBP .

 

Career OPS against RH's .761 , LH's .829 and with RISP ( my fav. stat.) .808 . So everything really does point to him being Upton-lite.

[Thad Bosley]

Fowler is not worth what becomes a late first round draft pick.

 

If we sign him and lose the pic then keeping the Shark and offering him arbitration was just a waste of time. We should of just traded him at the deadline and picked up prospects. Its one thing to lose this pic for an Upton or Gordon. Its another thing to lose it for 2nd and 3rd tier guys.

Completely agree. And what's with Hahn's predisposition for acquiring below average defensive players? Garcia, Cabrera, Gillespie, and now considering Fowler? What is that the Hawk always says, "The first rule in baseball is to catch the baseball"? He's right about that. I don't think what Fowler brings to the game offensively is worth putting yet again another sub-par glove in the outfield.

Edited January 28, 2016 by Thad Bosley

[BlackSox13]

It would be just a bit ironic if the Sox signed Fowler. Cubs traded Samardzija to Oakland who later trades Samardzija to the Sox. Samardzija turns down the the QO netting the Sox a comp pick, Sox sign Fow!er and that Samardzija comp pick goes to the cubs. Talk about coming full circle.

 

I like the idea of the Sox having 3 picks in the first two rounds but having two speedy players at the top of the lineup with good OBP sounds pretty damn good. I will not complain if the Sox do end up signing Fowler.

Edited January 28, 2016 by BlackSox13

[BlackSox13]

Completely agree. And what's with Hahn's predisposition for acquiring below average defensive players? Garcia, Cabrera, Gillespie, and now considering Fowler? What is that the Hawk always says, "The first rule in baseball is to catch the baseball"? He's right about that. I don't think what Fowler brings to the game offensively is worth putting yet again another sub-par glove in the outfield.

Thing is, the Sox would be taking Avi out of RF. Fowler is a slight defensive upgrade in CF over Eaton, Eaton should be an upgrade over Melky in LF and Melky would be an upgrade over Avi in RF so the overall OF defense would be improved with better range too.

 

You know the OF defense was bad last year when adding Fowler is considered an upgrade.

[caulfield12]

It's very depressing to think of it this way:

 

Semien (#8 war SS under control for ages), Bassitt, Phegley, Ravelo

+ loss of $11-13 million in "value" for the #28 pick

 

ALL for the exclusive right to overpay second-tier Dexter Fowler $45 million for 3 years

So we're essentially paying Fowler $56-58 million over three years in terms of opportunity cost/alternative choices foregone.

 

We also lost a player in Semien who would be likely to produce a high 2/low 3's WAR at SS for minimal cost...which has now led us down the path to the even riskier Saladino AND the possibility of spending on Desmond to cover that loss in depth.

 

If you start putting it in THOSE terms, it's not very far at all from what the Tigers are paying Upton...granted, you also lose the draft pick there as well. But, you KEEP Upton away from a divisional rival and you're putting your franchise in a very solid position to compete through 2019/2020, but that's ONLY if you called Upton right.

 

(And we don't have any tangible reason to believe Upton was ever open to coming to Chicago...otoh, if you're a FA and can choose between Chicago and Detroit, not much of a contest...and we never heard a peep about the Tigers being in on him at all, either.)

Edited January 28, 2016 by caulfield12

[klaus kinski]

Anything now with what is left is not a difference maker and a letdown. Move on-incomplete as usual

[Dick Allen]

While he is not a great defender, he still improves the defense. Career .363 OBP, has some pop. Probably the best of what is out there without giving up your top prospects. Definitely improves the team.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Anything now with what is left is not a difference maker and a letdown. Move on-incomplete as usual

 

Don't discount what a difference having 2 guys who get on base at a good clip in front of Abreu/Fraizer would make. I would rather take a chance on Yadiel Hernandez for the same reason, but Fowler is proven to be that guy.

[Sockin]

Eaton and Fowler at the top of the order means lots of baserunners for Jose. That being said I'm really beginning to believe that they're going with Avi and don't think they'll sign Fowler.

[CyAcosta41]

It would be just a bit ironic if the Sox signed Fowler. Cubs traded Samardzija to Oakland who later trades Samardzija to the Sox. Samardzija turns down the the QO netting the Sox a comp pick, Sox sign Fow!er and that Samardzija comp pick goes to the cubs. Talk about coming full circle.

 

I like the idea of the Sox having 3 picks in the first two rounds but having two speedy players at the top of the lineup with good OBP sounds pretty damn good. I will not complain if the Sox do end up signing Fowler.

 

 

I have no problem either with the Sox signing Fowler.

 

When the so-called Big Three were in play, I was most interested in Gordon because I felt his overall skill set best fit what the Sox needed. Granted, part of the Gordon package was near-elite play in LF and Fowler is at best an adequate OFer (but Avi is currently so bad out there that bringing in anybody that results in less defensive innings for Avi is an overall net gain). But on the offensive side, Fowler brings many of the same offensive gifts that Gordon would have brought -- high OBP, lots of doubles, 13-17 HRs, and left-handedness (when he isn't hitting right-handed).

 

I recognize I'm in the minority, but I have no problem giving away our comp round pick provided we still have our first and second round picks to play prospect lottery. When we kept Samardzija post trade deadline -- knowing we'd give him a QO and wind-up with a comp round pick -- it gave us an asset. Great, one way to use that asset is to use our superior amateur scouting capabilities and turn a top 30 pick into a can't miss stud player. Except wait -- we don't have a superior amateur scouting system, do we? Not by any metric. And what's more, even if we did, once you get past the top 10-12 in any given draft there are many, many more misses than hits on the major league prospects of the selected player. Yeah, it's valuable, but that pick is not THAT valuable. Losing that pick to pick-up a Dexter Fowler brings value too. In this case, certain value because he WILL play in the bigs, and at worst he adds skills we don't already have, and at best he turns into the missing link that ignites a lineup that for the first time in a few years has some actual overall offensive capabilities.

 

And ... we still have the customary full set of draft picks (we just lose that extra overall #28 pick, or whatever the current high 20s number is).

 

By the way, while it makes a good story, the Cubs don't get THE PICK we were given when Samardzija turned down the QO and was signed by the Giants. Nobody gets that pick. If we sign Fowler, we lose that pick, but it just disappears into thin air. The Cubs get A PICK (not OUR pick) when their guy Fowler is signed by anybody. The most we're doing to help the Cubs is you can say that their pick is one pick higher than it otherwise would have been because our pick disappeared. But that would happen if virtually any team signed Fowler -- and somebody will.

 

Sign Fowler. OR, sign Desmond AND Jackson. Lose one pick and one only. We started a plan and have yet to finish it. There are ample ways to still improve in the OF, or just generally on offense. Finish your plan, Rick.

 

[fathom]

Cy, you are killing it lately. Bravo!!

[Whisox05]

I have no problem either with the Sox signing Fowler.

 

When the so-called Big Three were in play, I was most interested in Gordon because I felt his overall skill set best fit what the Sox needed. Granted, part of the Gordon package was near-elite play in LF and Fowler is at best an adequate OFer (but Avi is currently so bad out there that bringing in anybody that results in less defensive innings for Avi is an overall net gain). But on the offensive side, Fowler brings many of the same offensive gifts that Gordon would have brought -- high OBP, lots of doubles, 13-17 HRs, and left-handedness (when he isn't hitting right-handed).

 

I recognize I'm in the minority, but I have no problem giving away our comp round pick provided we still have our first and second round picks to play prospect lottery. When we kept Samardzija post trade deadline -- knowing we'd give him a QO and wind-up with a comp round pick -- it gave us an asset. Great, one way to use that asset is to use our superior amateur scouting capabilities and turn a top 30 pick into a can't miss stud player. Except wait -- we don't have a superior amateur scouting system, do we? Not by any metric. And what's more, even if we did, once you get past the top 10-12 in any given draft there are many, many more misses than hits on the major league prospects of the selected player. Yeah, it's valuable, but that pick is not THAT valuable. Losing that pick to pick-up a Dexter Fowler brings value too. In this case, certain value because he WILL play in the bigs, and at worst he adds skills we don't already have, and at best he turns into the missing link that ignites a lineup that for the first time in a few years has some actual overall offensive capabilities.

 

And ... we still have the customary full set of draft picks (we just lose that extra overall #28 pick, or whatever the current high 20s number is).

 

By the way, while it makes a good story, the Cubs don't get THE PICK we were given when Samardzija turned down the QO and was signed by the Giants. Nobody gets that pick. If we sign Fowler, we lose that pick, but it just disappears into thin air. The Cubs get A PICK (not OUR pick) when their guy Fowler is signed by anybody. The most we're doing to help the Cubs is you can say that their pick is one pick higher than it otherwise would have been because our pick disappeared. But that would happen if virtually any team signed Fowler -- and somebody will.

 

Sign Fowler. OR, sign Desmond AND Jackson. Lose one pick and one only. We started a plan and have yet to finish it. There are ample ways to still improve in the OF, or just generally on offense. Finish your plan, Rick.

 

And couple corrections to you post. Sox could have a good scouting department unfortunately it's the player development group that's the issue. Sox get guys with potential but unfortunately can not develop the players to get the talent out of them. Secondly cubs dont don't get a pick for fowler. They get one but will be lost right away. Remember they signed both lackey and Heyward which each cost a pick. So they loose their 1st round pick and also the comp pick tied to fowler. They just will get their second round pick.

[CyAcosta41]

Cy, you are killing it lately. Bravo!!

 

Just keeping it real, Brother Fathom. Thanks.

[fathom]

And couple corrections to you post. Sox could have a good scouting department unfortunately it's the player development group that's the issue. Sox get guys with potential but unfortunately can not develop the players to get the talent out of them. Secondly cubs dont don't get a pick for fowler. They get one but will be lost right away. Remember they signed both lackey and Heyward which each cost a pick. So they loose their 1st round pick and also the comp pick tied to fowler. They just will get their second round pick.

 

What sucks about the system is they can bring back Fowler and just spend a fortune on Lazarito and not have their system suffer. They already signed a guy last October that some thought would be the first pick in draft if eligible.

[Eminor3rd]

I didn't want Fowler, but I'm not going to be upset if we sign him. If he has a typical season, he improves the team by two to three wins.

[CyAcosta41]

And couple corrections to you post. Sox could have a good scouting department unfortunately it's the player development group that's the issue. Sox get guys with potential but unfortunately can not develop the players to get the talent out of them. Secondly cubs dont don't get a pick for fowler. They get one but will be lost right away. Remember they signed both lackey and Heyward which each cost a pick. So they loose their 1st round pick and also the comp pick tied to fowler. They just will get their second round pick.

 

I hadn't focused on that. Sounds right.

 

But my point was the Sox-centric one -- one of the oft-repeated reasons to refrain from Fowler was (gasp) helping the Cubs. Signing Fowler doesn't help them. In fact, signing Fowler hurts them because I believe the Cubs want him back at a bargain-basement price, plus I think he absolutely brings a needed dimension to that team.

 

The Cubs angle is a side issue. Signing Fowler helps US -- quantum of that help, TBD. Refraining from signing Fowler (or Desmond) in order to keep that #28 pick MIGHT help us -- but that will take 3-5 years to ascertain and we still have the customary allotment of picks anyway.

 

I do understand those who might value this year's 3 in the top 50 thing more than I do -- it DOES have value -- but in my opinion, we've charted a strategy for this year so it's sort of goofy to stop with the strategy before it's completed.

[caulfield12]

Yeah, there's the whole other side of this...how much do they believe in Hostetler to deliver results with that pick?

 

If it was completely the same group running the process, then I could see the argument, that we're almost 0 for the decade producing a DRAFTED hitter, so we can look at past drafts until we're blue in the face and find All-Stars chosen in that same area and find about a 5-10% overall success rate in finding big league regulars.

 

Of course, the other argument, and it's hard to "prove" beyond a shadow of a doubt, is the issue of other players that are drafted like an Adams and you now have the financial flexibility to bring in another potential stud after the first high first round because of your overall pool of money.

 

If you look at it like this:

 

Losing Semien/Bassitt/Phegley/Ravelo + foregoing Adams for the right to pay Fowler $45 million for 3 years...it doesn't seem like that great of an idea.

 

Of course, there's no guarantee we can find another Adams there. On the other hand, there might be someone who turns out even better.

 

 

The biggest issue is to me that signing Fowler alone (and platooning Garcia/Cabrera in RF but more likely Cabrera in RF with Garcia/LaRoche as DH) isn't quite enough.

 

I would argue Jackson + Desmond for let's say $22.5 million gives you a much higher likelihood of making the playoffs than Fowler alone at $15 million.

 

Now, of course, since nobody here controls the budget or payroll, it might be completely a moot point and nobody will be added other than a veteran bench player.

 

 

 

Nevertheless, in "win now/all-in" mode, which we aren't quite there yet...you put everything into the pot and roll the dice. And yeah, the odds of the 2016 draft pick making much of a difference before the midpoint of the 2019 season are very low regardless. That's the difference with KW and Hahn. KW is more of a gambler, Hahn is more calculating and risk-averse. He's cautious about making that one big franchise defining mistake, or maybe he just doesn't have the financial wherewithal to make it after the ineffective spending spree on free agents last offseason.

Edited January 28, 2016 by caulfield12

[Baron]

Why do you keep repeating 45 million caulfield? It doesnt even look like he'll get 3 years let alone 3 years for 15 million per.