Sox/Cubs showing interest in Fowler

[caulfield12]

Why do you keep repeating 45 million caulfield? It doesnt even look like he'll get 3 years let alone 3 years for 15 million per.

 

If you discount him down to Denard Span territory (because of the draft pick loss), then all of a sudden the mathematics are starting to make sense.

 

I've been operating under the assumption all offseason that he would be in that range ($40-46 million for 3 years). Let's not forget the comparison with the Cabrera deal as well, last year.

 

Now obviously it could be off. We won't know until he signs, or see the AAV of a one-year deal, two year or three year deal with an opt out after 2, etc.

 

The assumption has become that Kendrick, Gallardo, Desmond, Fowler and Jackson will have to content taking much less or signing one-year deals and going back into the market next year.

Edited January 28, 2016 by caulfield12

[fathom]

Should have a better idea tomorrow about Fowler, as Tampa might be making a deal. They still haven't announced the Pearce signing, as their 40 man is full

[caulfield12]

The other thing with Fowler and Jackson...

 

The Cardinals, Cubs, Orioles, Nats, White Sox, Rangers, Brewers and "mystery team" (there's always one) are all theoretically in the market looking for another outfield improvement.

 

My assumption is that Fowler's market isn't yet depressed to the point where he has to accept $20-22.5 million for 2 years or $30-35 million for three years.

 

Of course, that could be totally wrong. Just a guess.

[Whisox05]

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/01/27/cubs-w...-dexter-fowler/

[Dunt]

I'd be extremely happy if this ended up being the move. Not only are you upgraded the defense slightly, but the offense gets a big boost:

 

Eaton RF

Fowler CF

Abreu 1B

Frazier 3B

Cabrera LF

LaRoche DH

Lawrie 2B

Avila/Navarro C

Saladino SS

 

I think that's a playoff caliber roster with our pitching

[fathom]

I'd be extremely happy if this ended up being the move. Not only are you upgraded the defense slightly, but the offense gets a big boost:

 

Eaton RF

Fowler CF

Abreu 1B

Frazier 3B

Cabrera LF

LaRoche DH

Lawrie 2B

Avila/Navarro C

Saladino SS

 

I think that's a playoff caliber roster with our pitching

 

Brings some solutions to the bench questions. Avi can platoon with LaRoche. Schuck won't be needed as much for defense, so he will be your designated PR

[caulfield12]

Just as likely is you have to move Eaton to LF and Cabrera to RF...but that's just me.

 

There's no ideal defensive solution.

[Kalapse]

I'd be extremely happy if this ended up being the move. Not only are you upgraded the defense slightly, but the offense gets a big boost:

 

Eaton RF

Fowler CF

Abreu 1B

Frazier 3B

Cabrera LF

LaRoche DH

Lawrie 2B

Avila/Navarro C

Saladino SS

 

I think that's a playoff caliber roster with our pitching

If LaRoche and Melky were the players the Sox thought they were signing, I'd really like this lineup.

[Kalapse]

Would you trade Spencer Adams for Dexter Fowler at 3/$42M?

[Buehrle>Wood]

Just as likely is you have to move Eaton to LF and Cabrera to RF...but that's just me.

 

There's no ideal defensive solution.

Eaton has a great arm. People won't accept that because he's "scrappy" or small or something, but whatever. He'd be fine in RF.

[caulfield12]

Would you trade Spencer Adams for Dexter Fowler at 3/$42M?

 

Only if I was sure as GM I would be able to add on at least $10 million in salaries for the last two months of the season...otherwise, kinda pointless to get 90-95% of the way there and then just arbitrarily stop.

[BlackSox13]

I have no problem either with the Sox signing Fowler.

 

When the so-called Big Three were in play, I was most interested in Gordon because I felt his overall skill set best fit what the Sox needed. Granted, part of the Gordon package was near-elite play in LF and Fowler is at best an adequate OFer (but Avi is currently so bad out there that bringing in anybody that results in less defensive innings for Avi is an overall net gain). But on the offensive side, Fowler brings many of the same offensive gifts that Gordon would have brought -- high OBP, lots of doubles, 13-17 HRs, and left-handedness (when he isn't hitting right-handed).

 

I recognize I'm in the minority, but I have no problem giving away our comp round pick provided we still have our first and second round picks to play prospect lottery. When we kept Samardzija post trade deadline -- knowing we'd give him a QO and wind-up with a comp round pick -- it gave us an asset. Great, one way to use that asset is to use our superior amateur scouting capabilities and turn a top 30 pick into a can't miss stud player. Except wait -- we don't have a superior amateur scouting system, do we? Not by any metric. And what's more, even if we did, once you get past the top 10-12 in any given draft there are many, many more misses than hits on the major league prospects of the selected player. Yeah, it's valuable, but that pick is not THAT valuable. Losing that pick to pick-up a Dexter Fowler brings value too. In this case, certain value because he WILL play in the bigs, and at worst he adds skills we don't already have, and at best he turns into the missing link that ignites a lineup that for the first time in a few years has some actual overall offensive capabilities.

 

And ... we still have the customary full set of draft picks (we just lose that extra overall #28 pick, or whatever the current high 20s number is).

 

By the way, while it makes a good story, the Cubs don't get THE PICK we were given when Samardzija turned down the QO and was signed by the Giants. Nobody gets that pick. If we sign Fowler, we lose that pick, but it just disappears into thin air. The Cubs get A PICK (not OUR pick) when their guy Fowler is signed by anybody. The most we're doing to help the Cubs is you can say that their pick is one pick higher than it otherwise would have been because our pick disappeared. But that would happen if virtually any team signed Fowler -- and somebody will.

 

Sign Fowler. OR, sign Desmond AND Jackson. Lose one pick and one only. We started a plan and have yet to finish it. There are ample ways to still improve in the OF, or just generally on offense. Finish your plan, Rick.

Cy, this is one heck of a very well thought out post. Well done sir!

 

At first I didn't like the idea of Fowler but after looking closer at his overall game and taking into consideration some valid points made by SoxTalk members, I'm much more open to the idea and am really beginning to like it. I'd love to see Fowler lead off with Eaton batting second. Can you imagine what would go through the pitchers mind if the 6'5" base stealing threat that is Fowler gets on base ahead of Eaton and has to pitch to Eaton's 5'8" strike zone while worrying about Fowler stealing second? Hmmm, I like the idea of Fowler that much more when I look at it that way.

 

I am a bit confused on the pick. I understand that the Sox lose the (currently) #28 pick if they were to sign Fowler so would the pick the cubs received as compensation be at the tail end of the current list of comp picks? I admit that I'm not really sure how that works. Just curious really, I could care less that the pick would fo to the cubs. As a Sox fan, what matters is that the team improves and not to whom the pick goes to.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Cy, this is one heck of a very well thought out post. Well done sir!

 

At first I didn't like the idea of Fowler but after looking closer at his overall game and taking into consideration some valid points made by SoxTalk members, I'm much more open to the idea and am really beginning to like it. I'd love to see Fowler lead off with Eaton batting second. Can you imagine what would go through the pitchers mind if the 6'5" base stealing threat that is Fowler gets on base ahead of Eaton and has to pitch to Eaton's 5'8" strike zone while worrying about Fowler stealing second? Hmmm, I like the idea of Fowler that much more when I look at it that way.

 

I am a bit confused on the pick. I understand that the Sox lose the (currently) #28 pick if they were to sign Fowler so would the pick the cubs received as compensation be at the tail end of the current list of comp picks? I admit that I'm not really sure how that works. Just curious really, I could care less that the pick would fo to the cubs. As a Sox fan, what matters is that the team improves and not to whom the pick goes to.

 

 

The draft started out 1-30. The Sox have the 3rd pick in the comp round (33) because it goes by record. 5 teams forfeited 1st rounders (Giants, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Royals, Nationals) giving the White Sox the 28th pick in the draft. The Cubs pick for Fowler would be at the end of the comp round. However, the Cubs signed Lackey and Hayward so they lose their 1st 2 picks (1st rounder, and 2nd rounder if they re-sign Fowler) or (1st rounder and comp round) if Fowler signs elsewhere.

[BlackSox13]

The draft started out 1-30. The Sox have the 3rd pick in the comp round (33) because it goes by record. 5 teams forfeited 1st rounders (Giants, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Royals, Nationals) giving the White Sox the 28th pick in the draft. The Cubs pick for Fowler would be at the end of the comp round. However, the Cubs signed Lackey and Hayward so they lose their 1st 2 picks (1st rounder, and 2nd rounder if they re-sign Fowler) or (1st rounder and comp round) if Fowler signs elsewhere.

Thanks for taking the time to explain that Jimmy. Makes sense to me now.

[dpd9189]

Losing the draft pick really doesn't upset me because it's not a top ten pick. If I have one reservation about signing Fowler it's that he had a lousy first half last year before he turned it on and if there's one thing the Sox don't need more of, it's guys who start off slow.

 

Aside from that he's a quality MLB player and if they can get him on a 1-2 year deal then I'd be fine with it. Going back to the Cubs doesn't make sense unless they trade Soler. Doesn't mean it can't or won't happen but it hasn't yet.

[BlackSox13]

Back to Fowler. I kind of like the Sox chances and wonder if the cubs rumors are an effort to drive the price up on the Sox. By the time the cubs come to an agreement with Arrieta and fill out their roster with league minimum players, their payroll should end up around 165M+. How much more can they or are they willing to spend? Signing Fowler would put them around 180M which doesn't leave much room for adding future payroll without going over the luxury tax threshold.

[SoCalSox]

I have no doubt the Cubs have interest in bringing Fowler back but at this point, they would need to deal Soler for that to happen, IMO.

[dmbjeff]

Did you know Fowler is 25th among all active players in OBP according to baseball-reference and is based upon their parameters of 3000PA or 500 games played? Did you also know that every player higher than him on that list has had a 20+ HR season before? Every player on the list outside of Joe Mauer are still legit threats to hit 20+ HR a year still. Fowler is very elite OBP guy and considering nearly everyone ahead of him has the benefit of being pitched around due to their big time power. He has really elite OBP skills for not being a power hitter.

 

Does that make him worth the risk of losing a comp pick? I say yes! The White Sox are in "win now" mode. They need help immediately. They need more guys who provide positive WAR. Fowler is a guy who can do that. The player they could choose around 28th overall will not be ready to help this "win now" team most likely. If they trade for someone like a CarGo, prospects are leaving regardless. Whether they be in the system now for someone like CarGo or via this comp pick for Fowler. Even if they stand pat and go with Avi in RF, they will still need to move prospects at the trade deadline to bolster the deficiencies of the roster provided they are still in the race. Either way you look at it, the farm system will take a hit, providing they are a good team this year. Only way the farm system improves is if this team makes no moves at all, falls flat on it's face the first 3 months and then we are out selling off pieces to get prospects in return, but that clearly isn't the goal. I think they do themselves a much greater good by starting with a more elite team now, rather than a wait and see approach.

 

I think if they had $20 million a year for Cespedes, it can be divided up to get Fowler and get a rebound SP candidate, like Latos. It helps in multiple areas and this team needs more pieces then currently constructed to make a serious run at the playoffs.

[caulfield12]

Did you know Fowler is 25th among all active players in OBP according to baseball-reference and is based upon their parameters of 3000PA or 500 games played? Did you also know that every player higher than him on that list has had a 20+ HR season before? Every player on the list outside of Joe Mauer are still legit threats to hit 20+ HR a year still. Fowler is very elite OBP guy and considering nearly everyone ahead of him has the benefit of being pitched around due to their big time power. He has really elite OBP skills for not being a power hitter.

 

Does that make him worth the risk of losing a comp pick? I say yes! The White Sox are in "win now" mode. They need help immediately. They need more guys who provide positive WAR. Fowler is a guy who can do that. The player they could choose around 28th overall will not be ready to help this "win now" team most likely. If they trade for someone like a CarGo, prospects are leaving regardless. Whether they be in the system now for someone like CarGo or via this comp pick for Fowler. Even if they stand pat and go with Avi in RF, they will still need to move prospects at the trade deadline to bolster the deficiencies of the roster provided they are still in the race. Either way you look at it, the farm system will take a hit, providing they are a good team this year. Only way the farm system improves is if this team makes no moves at all, falls flat on it's face the first 3 months and then we are out selling off pieces to get prospects in return, but that clearly isn't the goal. I think they do themselves a much greater good by starting with a more elite team now, rather than a wait and see approach.

 

I think if they had $20 million a year for Cespedes, it can be divided up to get Fowler and get a rebound SP candidate, like Latos. It helps in multiple areas and this team needs more pieces then currently constructed to make a serious run at the playoffs.

 

Interesting stat find.

 

One thing is for sure, talent and wins will do more for this franchise than high-tech scoreboards.

 

Heck, there are probably traditionalists who want to bring back the board from Old Comiskey.

[QuickJones81]

Would you trade Spencer Adams for Dexter Fowler at 3/$42M?

 

I'd Keon Barnum or Keenyn Walker

[Dick Allen]

Fowler is not worth what becomes a late first round draft pick.

 

If we sign him and lose the pic then keeping the Shark and offering him arbitration was just a waste of time. We should of just traded him at the deadline and picked up prospects. Its one thing to lose this pic for an Upton or Gordon. Its another thing to lose it for 2nd and 3rd tier guys.

3 of the last 4 years Fowler has put up a better WAR than CarGo. Including CarGo's 40 homer season in 2015.

[hogan873]

3 of the last 4 years Fowler has put up a better WAR than CarGo. Including CarGo's 40 homer season in 2015.

I'd rather the Sox sign Fowler and lose the pick than trade some established prospects for CarGo.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'd rather the Sox sign Fowler and lose the pick than trade some established prospects for CarGo.

Yeah, I really see four options for the OF.

 

1) Sign Fowler and lose a draft pick.

 

2) Sign Jackson and lose nothing.

 

3) Trade Adams+ for a legit upgrade.

 

4) Stick with Avi in RF.

 

Honestly, given that we're "going for it", I think option #4 is a horrible idea. And I'd rather give up a draft pick than trade Adams (our best remaining headliner not named Anderson/Fulmer) if the player coming back is of similar ability to Fowler. The wild card here is Jackson. I'd prefer Jackson plus another move (Desmond/SP) to just Fowler, but if I can only have one or the other I think Fowler will provide the bigger impact. Too bad we couldn't land one of the big 3 OFs, because all these options sucks in comparison.

[caulfield12]

3 of the last 4 years Fowler has put up a better WAR than CarGo. Including CarGo's 40 homer season in 2015.

 

What's the highest salary you would have the White Sox pay him for one, two and three years?

 

Would you stop at three or go to four?

How close would you be willing to go to $68-72 million?

Edited January 28, 2016 by caulfield12

[fathom]

Back to Fowler. I kind of like the Sox chances and wonder if the cubs rumors are an effort to drive the price up on the Sox. By the time the cubs come to an agreement with Arrieta and fill out their roster with league minimum players, their payroll should end up around 165M+. How much more can they or are they willing to spend? Signing Fowler would put them around 180M which doesn't leave much room for adding future payroll without going over the luxury tax threshold.

 

They would almost definitely be trading Hammel to free up money