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Orioles DO NOT Sign Fowler


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QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 09:42 AM)
If they can get Fowler at 2/20, what the f*** are they waiting for?

 

If Fowler was willing to settle on 2/20, I think he would of signed yesterday. Sox and Fowler are playing chicken it seems.

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Yeah I still think that deal is too low. Kendrick is very specifically a 2b or a DH. Fowler could pass in 3 OF positions, or DH (in a literal sense). He is younger than Kendrick. There's no reason he should be stuck to that specific deal. I'd be surprised if less than 12 mill per year.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 10:57 AM)
Yeah I still think that deal is too low. Kendrick is very specifically a 2b or a DH. Fowler could pass in 3 OF positions, or DH (in a literal sense). He is younger than Kendrick. There's no reason he should be stuck to that specific deal. I'd be surprised if less than 12 mill per year.

 

I would, too. But I just want to point out that comparison pricing in this situation is a fallacy -- "market rates" only apply when demand significantly outstrips supply. In the case of free agency, and ESPECIALLY late-offseason free agency, every time a guy signs a deal, he removes a major chunk of demand along with the supply he provides. Dexter Fowler is not currently shopping in the same environment that earlier free agents (even Kendrick) signed.

 

So who knows? He could get sign any manner of crazy deal.

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2/$20 million would obviously be a steal, and if those were the terms of current offers then there would be many more suitors than just the Sox in on the bidding. The market MIGHT end up there, but it's not there yet. Maybe 3 years/$35 with an opt out after year 2 gets it done before the sharks start to gather? Even those terms would be a bargain; it's looking more and more like Fowler might end up as one of the best bargains on the FA market by the time he signs.

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QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 09:52 AM)
Apparently my post wasn't very well written. My entire point was that if they could sign Fowler for that deal it would have been done.

The point being, as time goes on and suitors fall by the boards, his demands will go down. He turned down $15.8 million 1 year contract. I'm pretty sure he would sign that today. You are right, if they could sign him to that today, they would. It doesn't mean they won't be able to at some point.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 12:46 PM)
If the Sox can pick up Desmond/Fowler on a 3 year (or less deal) with an AAV around 11 this offseason would have to be considered outstanding.

 

Replace black holes at 3B/2B & SS/RF with three ~2 WAR+ players. Add an incredible value to the rotation and insulate from injury. Lose nothing from the pen and add a couple arms for more depth. Get a more offensively exciting catching position.

 

Catcher = call it even

First Base = same

Second Base = good improvement

Third Base = huge improvement

Shortstop = either improvement because it can't get worse from '15 or big improvement in Desmond

Left Field = same

Center Field = same

Right Field = Same or good improvement

DH = Same, can't get worse

 

SP1 = same

SP2 = same

SP3 = I'll call Rodon even to Samardzija but could go either way

SP4 = improved

SP5 = same

Depth = better

 

Bullpen = Everyone is back, Jones/Albers healthy + more depth in Kahnle, Aunmont, Lamb, etc.

 

Is there one position they got worse at? Potentially catcher. That's it.

 

The team lost Montas, Thompson, prospect depth and their payroll was raised just above the extent of salary inflation in average. This is a good offseason. Finish it.

 

 

Stop making sense.

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We always expect best case scenarios though. One or several of our players will have career low years, hopefully several will post career bests. His projections are pretty modest.

 

C is improved, but probably #1 position to expect significant time off.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 01:14 PM)
I was operating under career norms and I am in no way expecting best case scenarios. If Frazier could has a sub .300 OBP I wouldn't be surprised.

 

LaRoche performed in the 90-100 percentile. He can't get worse.

 

3B, SS, 2B and RF were all black holes. You cannot get worse. If a performer is worse than one these positions production level last year they will be replaced.

 

I think Eaton/Melky could have drop offs. Other than that, the Sox just need Sale/Q/Abreu/Eaton/Rodon/Robertson to stay healthy and the bullpen can't blow up.

 

I was actually defending you. I thought your anticipated improvements were pretty conservative.

 

Eaton I would say is most likely drop off in power, hopefully he raises OBP to make up for it.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 01:20 PM)
I was actually defending you. I thought your anticipated improvements were pretty conservative.

 

Eaton I would say is most likely drop off in power, hopefully he raises OBP to make up for it.

Yeah the only one I could see decent regression from compared to last year is CF, and that's because I'm not sure Eaton has 14 HR in him again. Abreu was complete trash against LHP in 2015 after demolishing them in 2014, I think we'll see improvement from him considering his RHP splits pretty much stayed the same. SS, 3B, 2B, DH and RF pretty much can't be worse (especially if they pick up Fowler/Jackson) even with regression from the newcomers, Rodon over a full season should be better than rookie Rodon's partial season, and Latos/Johnson should easily outperform Samardzija. Danks could fall off, as that 2nd half seems unlikely to happen again, and Sale will very likely have a much better ERA this year compared to last. Bullpen should be a push even in a bad-case scenario, and we have depth in case some guys underperform/get injured. We did outperform our WAR and run differential by about 4-5 games, so we have to take that into account. But picking up Desmond/Fowler should have us right in the mix. For all the talk about the Sox relying on guys to bounce back, the Tigers are pretty much hoping for the same thing.

Edited by OmarComing25
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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 04:09 PM)
Austin Jackson and a nice three high picks come draft time to rebuild the recently lost prospects is going to sit well with me.

 

Fowler doesnt do much for a moribund OF defense.

 

I'd be more than happy with Austin Jackson at this point, I've maintained OF defense is the quickest way to get this team better.

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 05:08 PM)
Sox brass is going to get pounded if Avi is your starting RFer

 

And they should, honestly. When the market is completely flush with options and prices are lower than they've been in years, you have to make a move that makes as much sense as this one has.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 04:16 PM)
And they should, honestly. When the market is completely flush with options and prices are lower than they've been in years, you have to make a move that makes as much sense as this one has.

 

 

I honestly feel bad for Avi...first sign of trouble and he's going to get absolutely roasted. He's going to hear it at the ball park.

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QUOTE (Baron @ Feb 10, 2016 -> 04:25 PM)
I honestly feel bad for Avi...first sign of trouble and he's going to get absolutely roasted. He's going to hear it at the ball park.

You're not kidding. The fans boo'd him pretty good at SoxFest so I can only imagine what they will do at the ballpark if Avi struggles in the beginning of the season.

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