Orioles DO NOT Sign Fowler

[Eminor3rd]

If Avi is our Opening Day RF, then it has NOT been a good offseason. There has maybe never been a better buyer's market for corner OF in the history of free agency, and corner OF was the single biggest hole we had to fill on the team.

 

We bicker back and forth around here a lot about the team's willingness to spend money. Some feel like the team should spend as much as it can every year to win, while others don't want to see inefficient and sloppy moves being made simply for the sake of spending resources. I've tended to fall on the latter side -- even though I acknowledge that ownership[ is making money and has a TON at its disposal, money should still be treated as a finite resource, because losing money is not a sustainable model. The rub on that line of thinking about falls around where the limit SHOULD be. How do you set a limit when you technically have more to spend than you need?

 

To me, the answer is that you buy when the market is ripe for you to buy. Going into the offseason, no "contender" needed an corner OF more than us, with the exception of the Royals, and there were no less than 8 significant upgrades available (Heyward, Upton, Gordon, Cespedes, Fowler, Jackson, Parra, Dickerson). Pitchers and catcher have now reported, nearly all of those options are off the board, and nearly all of them have cost LESS than expected. The teams that have gotten them have, in many cases, created logjams with the acquisitions simply because the value to cost ratio was so good.

 

And yet the White Sox still have nothing. I loved the Frazier, Lawrie, and Latos acquisitions, but if I knew our front office was going to stare a gift horse in the mouth for six straight months until the OF market collapsed entirely, I'd have rather they gone in a totally different direction.

[OmarComing25]

If Avi is our Opening Day RF, then it has NOT been a good offseason. There has maybe never been a better buyer's market for corner OF in the history of free agency, and corner OF was the single biggest hole we had to fill on the team.

 

We bicker back and forth around here a lot about the team's willingness to spend money. Some feel like the team should spend as much as it can every year to win, while others don't want to see inefficient and sloppy moves being made simply for the sake of spending resources. I've tended to fall on the latter side -- even though I acknowledge that ownership[ is making money and has a TON at its disposal, money should still be treated as a finite resource, because losing money is not a sustainable model. The rub on that line of thinking about falls around where the limit SHOULD be. How do you set a limit when you technically have more to spend than you need?

 

To me, the answer is that you buy when the market is ripe for you to buy. Going into the offseason, no "contender" needed an corner OF more than us, with the exception of the Royals, and there were no less than 8 significant upgrades available (Heyward, Upton, Gordon, Cespedes, Fowler, Jackson, Parra, Dickerson). Pitchers and catcher have now reported, nearly all of those options are off the board, and nearly all of them have cost LESS than expected. The teams that have gotten them have, in many cases, created logjams with the acquisitions simply because the value to cost ratio was so good.

 

And yet the White Sox still have nothing. I loved the Frazier, Lawrie, and Latos acquisitions, but if I knew our front office was going to stare a gift horse in the mouth for six straight months until the OF market collapsed entirely, I'd have rather they gone in a totally different direction.

Couldn't have put it better myself. Agree 100%. Great post.

[bmags]

Some reports out that Fowler is seeking 3/45

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles...0217-story.html

 

I think this stands out to me. WIth previous "bargain hunting" we've seen that the actual contract delivered ends up quite a bit hired than the "they can be had for x" numbers.

 

3/45 is probably right for him, but, I was never a big Fowler fan. He is, without a doubt, certainly an upgrade, though.

[shysocks]

If you think the delta between Avi and Jackson in 2016 will be 3.7 WAR you're off your rocker.

 

Austin Jackson is not putting this team over the top. There's a reason nobody has bothered signing him. I mis read his age earlier he's "only" 29 instead of 30 and you're going to be asking him to play a new position, RF -- FWIW he has a negative fWAR in RF in an ultra small sample size.

 

Avi sucks but just like Viciedo the scenario is such that you pretty much have to give him another 300 or so PA to figure out if you can safely cut bait. A torn labrum is no joke and an obvious reason why he was unable to consistently generate bat speed or play any sort of defense last year. I'm not expecting him to turn into a 4 WAR player but would anyone be shocked if both him and Jackson finished around 1 fWAR this season?

 

It really surprises me how many folks think the Austin Jackson is some surefire upgrade. I just don't think you've looked at his stats or watched him play since he left Detroit. He's clearly a player in decline that relies on his athletic ability (which is leaving him) for most of his value.

 

FFS he had a .311 OBP and struck out 22% of the time last year -- and this was a bounceback for him!

 

Jackson is a better player than Avi, nobody is going to dispute that. But there's more to it than just that.

"You pretty much have to start this sub-replacement level guy while we're trying to win on the remote chance that he doesn't suck."

 

You don't pretty much have to do anything. Garcia is a bad baseball player and he has not earned another half season. He just hasn't, he does everything poorly. I also find it incredible that you would mention Viciedo's name in support of Avi. If Viciedo taught us anything, it's that once you know a guy is bad, you stop giving him chances.

 

Earlier in the thread you brought up the opportunity cost of signing Jackson. Well, the Sox are at a crucial part of the win curve. They're probably a .500 team right now. Luck will likely push them five games in either direction. The AL will be fiercely competitive. HERE is the key point of my post: The opportunity cost of rolling with Garcia is that he is predictably terrible again and you miss the playoffs by one or two games.

 

I'm not even specifically advocating for Jackson, but even if I accept the claim that he'll only be one win better than Avi next year, that's fine. We need that one win.

 

And I see an increasing number of posters saying, "Welp, just go with Avi, we can always replace him in July." No. I just outlined why you can't do that. And I wonder if Avi were on some random team and had done how he's done, would there be anybody on this board going to bat for him? No. He'd be just another bad player. There'd be no excuses about the number of full seasons, or his age, or injuries that sapped defensive ability that he's never had anyway.

 

[Jerksticks]

I wonder what the dodgers want for Trayce.

[BlackSox13]

I really dont think this is the back breaker that people are thinking it is. Do i want Avi in right this season? No, not really. But I dont really feel like Fowler is the glue

 

I do think the team is incomplete, but I dont think they are done.

 

 

This.

 

I'm shocked at the negative reaction to this.

I'm with you guys. Sure, Fowler would have been a nice addition but not signing him isn't the end of the world either. I still believe Hahn will pull something off to add more legitimate depth to the outfield. If not, I'm still very happy about the things accomplished this off season and I'm excited about the upcoming season.

[BlackSox13]

Probably for the fact some just really want a move for an OF'er to be made. All off season we have been linked to every OF'er on the market. They all have signed elsewhere. At 1 point no one wanted Fowler but the fact he was the last one left makes it sting to some more. I didn't want him but he would have been a nice corner defender that gets on base at a high clip. He would fit nicely. I do hope we sign someone but I for one am not upset with losing out on the Fowler race. (Well reportedly losing out on the Fowler race).

You hit it right on the head in this post, well done!

 

At the beginning of the off season I wanted nothing to do with Fowler or Jackson but as time wore on and free agents signed elsewhere I began to realize that both Fowler and Jackson are upgrades over Avi so I accepted the possibilities.

 

If Fowler signs in the suspected range of 3/45, I consider it a blessing that Baltimore signed him. That kind of contract, money and loss of a pick is not worth it, IMHO.

 

 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Just sign Jackson already.

 

He's the best of both worlds at this point IMO. He's good defensively and wouldn't cost the Sox a draft pick.

[ChiSox59]

Just sign Jackson already.

 

He's the best of both worlds at this point IMO. He's good defensively and wouldn't cost the Sox a draft pick.

 

I'd be fine with Jackson, but he's not going to make a huge difference. Sure he plays some nice D, but offensively has very little upside.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Just sign Jackson already.

 

He's the best of both worlds at this point IMO. He's good defensively and wouldn't cost the Sox a draft pick.

 

I want no part of Jackson. I would rather take Avi's offensive potential over Jackson's defense for what will be 1/3 or 1/4 the cost.

[oldsox]

I think Sox are comfortable with starting the season with Avi in RF, hoping that he improves significantly. At same time Courtney Hawkins will be tearing it up at Charlotte, and if Avi falters, Hawkins comes up amid high hopes, bordering on hysteria. He delivers big time, LaRoche gets DFA'd, the Comp Pick turns out to be the top prospect in the system, all is good heading into 2017.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I think Sox are comfortable with starting the season with Avi in RF, hoping that he improves significantly. At same time Courtney Hawkins will be tearing it up at Charlotte, and if Avi falters, Hawkins comes up amid high hopes, bordering on hysteria. He delivers big time, LaRoche gets DFA'd, the Comp Pick turns out to be the top prospect in the system, all is good heading into 2017.

No offense, but are you high?

 

[oldsox]

No offense, but are you high?

 

No, Mike; just ready for ST.

[shipps]

No, Mike; just ready for ST.

 

When tomorrows 60 degree weather comes I am going to get that giddy feeling of baseball and spring on its way.

 

Even though we can totally get another 2 feet of snow before then.

[southsider2k5]

If Avi is our Opening Day RF, then it has NOT been a good offseason. There has maybe never been a better buyer's market for corner OF in the history of free agency, and corner OF was the single biggest hole we had to fill on the team.

 

We bicker back and forth around here a lot about the team's willingness to spend money. Some feel like the team should spend as much as it can every year to win, while others don't want to see inefficient and sloppy moves being made simply for the sake of spending resources. I've tended to fall on the latter side -- even though I acknowledge that ownership[ is making money and has a TON at its disposal, money should still be treated as a finite resource, because losing money is not a sustainable model. The rub on that line of thinking about falls around where the limit SHOULD be. How do you set a limit when you technically have more to spend than you need?

 

To me, the answer is that you buy when the market is ripe for you to buy. Going into the offseason, no "contender" needed an corner OF more than us, with the exception of the Royals, and there were no less than 8 significant upgrades available (Heyward, Upton, Gordon, Cespedes, Fowler, Jackson, Parra, Dickerson). Pitchers and catcher have now reported, nearly all of those options are off the board, and nearly all of them have cost LESS than expected. The teams that have gotten them have, in many cases, created logjams with the acquisitions simply because the value to cost ratio was so good.

 

And yet the White Sox still have nothing. I loved the Frazier, Lawrie, and Latos acquisitions, but if I knew our front office was going to stare a gift horse in the mouth for six straight months until the OF market collapsed entirely, I'd have rather they gone in a totally different direction.

 

Yes we are a couple of pieces short. So is the entire AL Central. I don't think we are the leading candidate here, but we sure aren't out of it. The team has been improved a lot during the off-season, and it might be enough.

 

Here is the thing though, even if we can't win it this year, the next off-season is probably going to be one of the best sellers markets in the history of baseball. All you have to do is look at the free agent market and know that teams that are willing to trade assets aren't going to be competing against quality free agents. They are going to be going against the worst free agent market in modern history. In a scenario where the Sox don't make it, AND decide to sell, they can decide to sell short term assets, such as Frazier and Lawrie, or they can go full out rebuild and trade from the starting pitcher stash. If they were to do it, they should be able to control the selling market more than most times.

[chitownsportsfan]

Yes we are a couple of pieces short. So is the entire AL Central. I don't think we are the leading candidate here, but we sure aren't out of it. The team has been improved a lot during the off-season, and it might be enough.

 

Can't believe I'm arguing on the side of 2k5, surely it's a new year!

 

Pnoles had a piece on SSS the other day pedantically explaining an normal distribution and how another 2 WAR would put the Sox closer to the occasional outcomes around 88 wins (and thus playoffs). Well OK, but every team in the Central other than the Twins is in the same damn boat. I'd much rather wait and see how things look in July and then see where the Sox are looking relative the division and wild card race. What Pnoles really never acknowledged is that the Sox are just as likely to fall on the wrong side of the distribution curve as the the "right" side. By waiting until July you get much, much more information on where your team is.

 

Other than signing Fowler for a reasonable deal I really think the position right now is "wait and see".

Edited February 18, 2016 by chitownsportsfan

[Dick Allen]

Yes we are a couple of pieces short. So is the entire AL Central. I don't think we are the leading candidate here, but we sure aren't out of it. The team has been improved a lot during the off-season, and it might be enough.

 

Here is the thing though, even if we can't win it this year, the next off-season is probably going to be one of the best sellers markets in the history of baseball. All you have to do is look at the free agent market and know that teams that are willing to trade assets aren't going to be competing against quality free agents. They are going to be going against the worst free agent market in modern history. In a scenario where the Sox don't make it, AND decide to sell, they can decide to sell short term assets, such as Frazier and Lawrie, or they can go full out rebuild and trade from the starting pitcher stash. If they were to do it, they should be able to control the selling market more than most times.

All the more reason to buy one of these guys next season. If they are so afraid they may have to sell off next year, these contracts aren't going to do any damage to them. As Stacey says, if your scared, buy a dog. You want to win, need an OF, and some reasonably priced OFs are available, if you don't jump on them and your guy fails, you failed. Then it's time to bring in someone with other ideas. This half assed going for it hasn't worked. Yes, they are improved from last year, but why stop now? It's like scoring 5 runs in the first, and giving up all of your other ABs. If they are going to go for it, go for it. It doesn't require a superstar or $100 million for a huge upgrade.

[southsider2k5]

All the more reason to buy one of these guys next season. If they are so afraid they may have to sell off next year, these contracts aren't going to do any damage to them. As Stacey says, if your scared, buy a dog. You want to win, need an OF, and some reasonably priced OFs are available, if you don't jump on them and your guy fails, you failed. Then it's time to bring in someone with other ideas. This half assed going for it hasn't worked. Yes, they are improved from last year, but why stop now? It's like scoring 5 runs in the first, and giving up all of your other ABs. If they are going to go for it, go for it. It doesn't require a superstar or $100 million for a huge upgrade.

 

I have said all winter that I don't think it is fear. I think it is a limitation of resources. They have spent all winter trying to get someone, but haven't been able to. That tells me there is more to the story than fear.

[Dick Allen]

I have said all winter that I don't think it is fear. I think it is a limitation of resources. They have spent all winter trying to get someone, but haven't been able to. That tells me there is more to the story than fear.

I am the first to say there is more money in a budget to sign a guy like Cespedes or Gordon, than a guy like Fowler. And I will give you they don't have unlimited resourses. But if they can't afford Dexter Fowler or some of these other lesser guys, there is something wrong somewhere. It's the time to stick your neck out. It's not sticking your neck out so far you put the franchise in danger. Not making the move may actually cost you more in the long run than making it.

[shysocks]

Can't believe I'm arguing on the side of 2k5, surely it's a new year!

 

Pnoles had a piece on SSS the other day pedantically explaining an normal distribution to and how another 2 WAR would put the Sox closer to the occasional outcomes around 88 wins (and thus playoffs). Well OK, but every team in the Central other than the Twins is in the same damn boat. I'd much rather wait and see how things look in July and then see where the Sox are looking relative the division and wild card race. What Pnoles really never acknowledged is that the Sox are just as likely to fall on the wrong side of the distribution curve as the the "right" side. By waiting until July you get much, much more information on where your team is.

 

Other than signing Fowler for a reasonable deal I really think the position right now is "wait and see".

He acknowledged it by printing each team's playoff odds in his simulation in the article.

 

Rebuilding teams are out to learn about their players. The Sox are out to win, they've already made that choice. By upgrading now, they slide their curve to the right, past or closer to the other teams in the division.

 

I have said all winter that I don't think it is fear. I think it is a limitation of resources. They have spent all winter trying to get someone, but haven't been able to. That tells me there is more to the story than fear.

If they knew there were limitations that would prevent them from finishing the job, then as I've said all winter, they shouldn't have borrowed from the future to become a .500 team. If they didn't know, that's worse.

[southsider2k5]

I am the first to say there is more money in a budget to sign a guy like Cespedes or Gordon, than a guy like Fowler. And I will give you they don't have unlimited resourses. But if they can't afford Dexter Fowler or some of these other lesser guys, there is something wrong somewhere. It's the time to stick your neck out. It's not sticking your neck out so far you put the franchise in danger. Not making the move may actually cost you more in the long run than making it.

 

If you are Rick Hahn, are you willing to go to Jerry Reinsdorf and the Board of Directors and tell them that Dexter Fowler is the guy you need to put you over the top?

[SoCalSox]

I'm not really sure there is a way to cut this where the Sox FO has done a smart job this offseason.

 

If they knew they were limited, trying to compete was probably a stupid idea.

 

They know the market next year & know where they stand right now & while they may be in the "mix", why not better your odds if you're going for it?

 

This offseason has once again shown me that the leadership with this team has no real direction.

 

What I will say is, if this blows up in their face, we better be seeing either KW ousted, or RH & Ventura gone.

[chitownsportsfan]

Pnoles' piece was fine (other than the over wrought explanation of standard distributions) but nobody would ever, ever be against adding WAR in the abstract. But in the real world the Sox have a hard budget and player that they have invested in like Avi. These are considerations that a narrow "just add more WAR" argument avoids.

 

The Sox are betting on themselves, including their player development, which seems a pretty silly bet I acknowledge. But if they actually are better than they expect THEN you really go for it in July.

 

The tenor on this board, when the projections have the Sox as actually a fringe contender, compared to last year, when the projections had them as not even a fringe contender, is just bizarre to me. The team is BETTER ON PAPER now then it was last year with all the moves.

 

Every season needs to be viewed as its own entity. Don't let the failures of the last few years color your opinion on this year's squad. If the team sucks again, yea, it's probably time to blow it up and fire a bunch of people. But on paper, there's reason to be optimistic this year -- much, much moreso than 2014 and 2015.

Edited February 18, 2016 by chitownsportsfan

[Y2Jimmy0]

I'm not really sure there is a way to cut this where the Sox FO has done a smart job this offseason.

 

If they knew they were limited, trying to compete was probably a stupid idea.

 

They know the market next year & know where they stand right now & while they may be in the "mix", why not better your odds if you're going for it?

 

This offseason has once again shown me that the leadership with this team has no real direction.

 

What I will say is, if this blows up in their face, we better be seeing either KW ousted, or RH & Ventura gone.

 

 

I actually think they can win the division with the team they have.

[Dick Allen]

If you are Rick Hahn, are you willing to go to Jerry Reinsdorf and the Board of Directors and tell them that Dexter Fowler is the guy you need to put you over the top?

Considering some of his other choices, I think that would be easy, and an easy sale. If JR didn't want to pay, OK. Of course, JR was sold a bill of goods with Avi.

 

 

The biggest problem I have with the wait until they play a couple of months and see how Avi fares, , if Avi sucked, you may have cost yourself precious games. If you sign Fowler and Avi suddenly shows he can play, there will be plenty of opportunities to play him unless LaRoche snaps back, and Melky returns to his steroid day performance. And if all of them came up big, who cares?

 

They were willing to stick their necks way out for Cespedes and Gordon, if the reports are anywhere near accurate. For Fowler or Jackson or someone similar, the neck doesn't have to go out as far. At least theoretically.