Orioles DO NOT Sign Fowler

[Eminor3rd]

Yes we are a couple of pieces short. So is the entire AL Central. I don't think we are the leading candidate here, but we sure aren't out of it. The team has been improved a lot during the off-season, and it might be enough.

 

That doesn't change the fact that we had several very realistic opportunities to make a substantial upgrade and passed for reasons unknown. I'm not talking about whether or not this team has a chance to win, I'm talking about a front office that didn't do everything it could to put it in the best position to win.

 

If anything, the "flawed" state of every team in our division should have made investment in further improvement MORE valuable.

 

Here is the thing though, even if we can't win it this year, the next off-season is probably going to be one of the best sellers markets in the history of baseball. All you have to do is look at the free agent market and know that teams that are willing to trade assets aren't going to be competing against quality free agents. They are going to be going against the worst free agent market in modern history. In a scenario where the Sox don't make it, AND decide to sell, they can decide to sell short term assets, such as Frazier and Lawrie, or they can go full out rebuild and trade from the starting pitcher stash. If they were to do it, they should be able to control the selling market more than most times.

 

The acquisition of a corner outfielder at the extraordinarily reasonable prices that teams have been paying wouldn't hinder our ability to take advantage of a seller's market next year. In fact, it might HELP it. Also, that HAS to be the contingency plan, not the main plan.

Edited February 18, 2016 by Eminor3rd

[fathom]

Or did they just misjudge the market, especially in regards to how much the Big 3 outfielders were going to receive with the limited number of teams involved?

[fathom]

I have said all winter that I don't think it is fear. I think it is a limitation of resources. They have spent all winter trying to get someone, but haven't been able to. That tells me there is more to the story than fear.

 

I think that's very obvious now, and probably why they only were willing to go a 3 year base on the outfielders. I also wonder if Reinsdorf isn't preparing the books to eventually sell the team.

[Eminor3rd]

If you are Rick Hahn, are you willing to go to Jerry Reinsdorf and the Board of Directors and tell them that Dexter Fowler is the guy you need to put you over the top?

 

If I was Rick Hahn, I would have gone to JR early in the season and said, "I see paths to fill four huge holes (3B, 2B, SP, RF) at bargain level prices. If we fill all four, I think we're arguably the best team in the Central. The downside is that they're all relatively short-term solutions, so if we do one, we should do all four to ensure that we realize the benefits. Here's what I think it costs."

 

And if I couldn't get JR to commit to even ONE significant free agent, even when that free agent was going to cost under $50m, I would not have sold my precious assets for the partial upgrade. Not for 2 seasons, anyway.

 

EDIT: 5 huge holes, including catcher.

Edited February 18, 2016 by Eminor3rd

[fathom]

Fowler's probably close to signing, as he finally removed Chicago Cubs outfielder from his twitter page.

[bmags]

If I was Rick Hahn, I would have gone to JR early in the season and said, "I see paths to fill four huge holes (3B, 2B, SP, RF) at bargain level prices. If we fill all four, I think we're arguably the best team in the Central. The downside is that they're all relatively short-term solutions, so if we do one, we should do all four to ensure that we realize the benefits. Here's what I think it costs."

 

And if I couldn't get JR to commit to even ONE significant free agent, even when that free agent was going to cost under $50m, I would not have sold my precious assets for the partial upgrade. Not for 2 seasons, anyway.

 

This is how I felt in November and saw the fool's gold for 3 months before realizing where we're at.

[Eminor3rd]

Or did they just misjudge the market, especially in regards to how much the Big 3 outfielders were going to receive with the limited number of teams involved?

 

I'd buy that if all of those OFs got $130m+ contracts, but they simply didn't. Literally no one expected the contracts for position players to be so reasonable, on the whole.

 

If the Sox somehow thought that they were going to get one of those guys for EVEN LESS, they have no idea what they're doing.

[southsider2k5]

If I was Rick Hahn, I would have gone to JR early in the season and said, "I see paths to fill four huge holes (3B, 2B, SP, RF) at bargain level prices. If we fill all four, I think we're arguably the best team in the Central. The downside is that they're all relatively short-term solutions, so if we do one, we should do all four to ensure that we realize the benefits. Here's what I think it costs."

 

And if I couldn't get JR to commit to even ONE significant free agent, even when that free agent was going to cost under $50m, I would not have sold my precious assets for the partial upgrade. Not for 2 seasons, anyway.

 

EDIT: 5 huge holes, including catcher.

 

Except when you have that many moving parts it is nearly impossible to know what it is going to take to fill all of them. It isn't like you can say to each team that they need to wait until you get the other four things lined up.

[fathom]

Except when you have that many moving parts it is nearly impossible to know what it is going to take to fill all of them. It isn't like you can say to each team that they need to wait until you get the other four things lined up.

 

They've missed on so many rumored outfield targets that it's hard to comprehend what their actual plan was out there. If they were going to keep Avi in RF all along, then Hahn messed up big time with his comments on the Score after the Frazier trade.

[southsider2k5]

They've missed on so many rumored outfield targets that it's hard to comprehend what their actual plan was out there. If they were going to keep Avi in RF all along, then Hahn messed up big time with his comments on the Score after the Frazier trade.

 

I have no doubt they wanted an OF. Who knows what the plan or hope was. I would love to hear that. I would love to hear the details of the big discussions were like for the winter. Was selling off a real option at any point? Did they know their limitations and still buy? Did they expect another deal to happen for an OF that did not?

[Eminor3rd]

Except when you have that many moving parts it is nearly impossible to know what it is going to take to fill all of them. It isn't like you can say to each team that they need to wait until you get the other four things lined up.

 

But he made the trades first and VERY quickly. He essentially had four months to feel out the historically slow OF market, and watch and waited as prices fell further than anyone could have predicted. During the period, all of his "moving parts" were already settled; the OF signing was the final piece. We all laughed when Nightengale tweeted that the Sox were pushing for 3 years max on an OF, but then BOTH Gordon and Cespedes somehow DID fall to three years and below $80m! No we're seeing Fowler essentially begging for 3/$45m, and we're not in the picture.

 

The Sox could have had these guys if they were willing to pay a very fair price. They have continually chosen not to, even after the players have been forced to give in to their "three year max" demands.

[shysocks]

Here are two facts.

 

1) The Sox will try to contend in 2016.

2) As of now, Avisail Garcia is their starting right fielder. Each day that passes makes it more likely to stay this way.

 

I cannot reconcile these two facts. It does not matter why they are both facts, all the reasons lead to the same conclusion. Mistakes were made.

[Dick Allen]

Maybe we will be pleasantly surprised in the next few days. I know I am more than surprised it appears at this point, the 3 days with Todd Steverson in Miami has the Sox feeling good about Avi.

[fathom]

Here are two facts.

 

1) The Sox will try to contend in 2016.

2) As of now, Avisail Garcia is their starting right fielder. Each day that passes makes it more likely to stay this way.

 

I cannot reconcile these two facts. It does not matter why they are both facts, all the reasons lead to the same conclusion. Mistakes were made.

 

If no other changes are made, it will be shocking to see how poorly the roster is constructed (bench wise). A bench of Navarro/Sanchez/Shuck/Sands (or Olt, etc) is pretty awful.

[fathom]

Maybe we will be pleasantly surprised in the next few days. I know I am more than surprised it appears at this point, the 3 days with Todd Steverson in Miami has the Sox feeling good about Avi.

 

For me, LaRoche is the bigger concern. Not only was he a failure on the field, but it seems like they were disappointed in his clubhouse presence. Hahn even said some of the guys they thought would be good clubhouse people for 2015 weren't due to their struggles on the field (LaRoche and Samardzija most likely). When you add in the Sox tried to pay a team 8 million dollars to take him, it just seems like a bad situation where the Sox have no capable bat to push him.

[Dick Allen]

If no other changes are made, it will be shocking to see how poorly the roster is constructed (bench wise). A bench of Navarro/Sanchez/Shuck/Sands (or Olt, etc) is pretty awful.

Is it really much worse than the World Series bench with Timo, Ozuna, Widger, Harris, Blum for half a year? I think people put way too much stock in the bench.

[fathom]

Is it really much worse than the World Series bench with Timo, Ozuna, Widger, Harris, Blum for half a year? I think people put way too much stock in the bench.

 

That team also had 10 competent hitters on the roster (Everett was able to fill in for Thomas). The current roster has a bunch of weak hitters on it, which is scary considering the possible struggles of LaRoche, Avi and Saladino.

[bmags]

I actually feel pretty good about our bench with Sanchez. I think he'll be much improved this year.

[OmarComing25]

Why is that bench so bad? The catcher situation is fine, Sanchez is a fine utility infielder, and Shuck was capable as a backup outfielder last year.

Edited February 18, 2016 by OmarComing25

[fathom]

Why is that bench so bad? The catcher situation is fine, Sanchez is a fine utility infielder, and Shuck was capable as a backup outfielder last year.

 

None of those guys can hit (outside of the catching spot). I also have doubts about Sanchez defensively at SS. Of course, I half expect Anderson to win SS job during ST and Saladino to be utility player.

[Dunt]

They've missed on so many rumored outfield targets that it's hard to comprehend what their actual plan was out there. If they were going to keep Avi in RF all along, then Hahn messed up big time with his comments on the Score after the Frazier trade.

 

Really makes you wonder if they ever even had a plan honestly. I mean, KW sure made it sound like Hahn wasnt prepared earlier this offseason. I have no idea what this FO is doing anymore, and it's really tough to rationalize why I continue to give them so much of my time and energy. I wish the Bears were good so I didnt need to agonize over the Sox all winter.

[Dick Allen]

Really makes you wonder if they ever even had a plan honestly. I mean, KW sure made it sound like Hahn wasnt prepared earlier this offseason. I have no idea what this FO is doing anymore, and it's really tough to rationalize why I continue to give them so much of my time and energy. I wish the Bears were good so I didnt need to agonize over the Sox all winter.

I think many took those KW comments out of context. He wasn't throwing Hahn under a bus, he was saying he was still gathering information. The reality is they didn't pay much of a price to upgrade at cather. Lawrie didn't cost much. Frazier cost some prospects, but considering the lack of 3B in MLB, it wasn't a really high price to pay. Latos at $3 million was nothing. Jones will be farther from surgery and around on day 1. They have paid a minimal price for their upgrades. I can understand why they didn't sing Gordon or Cespedes or Upton. Those guys went places where if the Sox matched those contracts, they were staying there. In Upton's case, Detroit probably would have gone as high as it had to go. Gordon wasn't leaving KC unless the Sox offer was significantly better, and Cespedes would probably have cost at least $30 million for the 2016 season. If Fowler gets 3/$45 million, I can accept them not signing him. But if it is 2/$25 million or something like that, I'm sorry, that is something you cannot pass up if you are going for it and don't want to waste Sale/Abreu etc. prime years.

[chitownsportsfan]

Really makes you wonder if they ever even had a plan honestly. I mean, KW sure made it sound like Hahn wasnt prepared earlier this offseason. I have no idea what this FO is doing anymore, and it's really tough to rationalize why I continue to give them so much of my time and energy. I wish the Bears were good so I didnt need to agonize over the Sox all winter.

 

my goodness. Where were you in 13-15 then? Those teams were much worse on paper and the system was consistently dead last in MLB. As I've continually said, the ORG Hahn inherited was arguably in dead last in overall system talent: international, minors, and MLB.

 

Now they are clearly middle tier without significantly mortgaging the future. Overall, they've done a decent job. Not a great job, but not a bad one either.

[fathom]

my goodness. Where were you in 13-15 then? Those teams were much worse on paper and the system was consistently dead last in MLB. As I've continually said, the ORG Hahn inherited was arguably in dead last in overall system talent: international, minors, and MLB.

 

Now they are clearly middle tier without significantly mortgaging the future. Overall, they've done a decent job. Not a great job, but not a bad one either.

 

I'll wait until the performance on the field illustrates that. Last year at this time, we thought Hahn put together an upper-tier team.

[chitownsportsfan]

I'll wait until the performance on the field illustrates that. Last year at this time, we thought Hahn put together an upper-tier team.

 

who thought that? Certainly wasn't the projection systems that had them at 76-78 wins. This year I've seen them lowest at 82 and highest at 88. They are better on paper now then any time in the last few years.