MLB looking at strategy of deliberate tanking

[caulfield12]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14696106...-annual-meeting

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=12222

Four anti-tanking proposals...including one from Boras called the "E" System

 

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2016/2/2/1089...tanking-problem

A very good point by point rebuttal, particulary aimed at the Boras plan...

Edited February 3, 2016 by caulfield12

[venom4789]

i saw scott boras name in there and stopped right away.

[caulfield12]

Like him or not, he still has an important say in terms of the next CBA.

[reiks12]

I have always liked the idea of a draft lottery because it would be an exciting event. Imagine if there was one this season and we somehow landed the #1 pick?

[caulfield12]

The question, like the NBA....how many teams do you limit it to?

 

10? The teams not making the playoffs? Do you have a different number of balls that could be chosen based proportionally on record, from worst to first, or just one for each team?

 

As the writer with the Philly website noted, the Sixers are the most notorious tankers in sports, and they're under the supposedly fairer NBA system.

 

The Marlins at least have spent on Stanton and Wei Yin Chen. The other two teams with the biggest current revenue generation issues, Oakland and TB, are still fielding competitive teams. Finally, the Royals and Pirates are small market teams as well.

 

By definition, can we accuse the Yankees for not spending this offseason?

Edited February 3, 2016 by caulfield12

[Middle Buffalo]

By definition, can we accuse the Yankees for not spending this offseason?

I say we do it!

 

You start. I'll second the accusation. The rest of you guys chime in alphabetically.

[cabiness42]

Snake the draft for non-playoff teams. Worst record picks 1st in odd rounds but 20th in even rounds.

[Eminor3rd]

Since the most recent CBA, tanking in baseball is a non-issue. There are maybe four teams tanking this year, and all of them look like they'll got a shot to compete within 2-3 seasons. The only team that looks like it'll run into that problem in the foreseeable future is the Tigers.

[caulfield12]

Since the most recent CBA, tanking in baseball is a non-issue. There are maybe four teams tanking this year, and all of them look like they'll got a shot to compete within 2-3 seasons. The only team that looks like it'll run into that problem in the foreseeable future is the Tigers.

 

 

Brewers

Reds

Padres (sort of)

Phillies

Braves

Rockies

 

 

Interestingly, there's an article out today about the Braves being one of the favorites for Lazarito, fwiw.

 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/163477810/am...ason-contenders

 

Article about how every team in the AL is basically a postseason contender.

Edited February 3, 2016 by caulfield12

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Brewers

Reds

Padres (sort of)

Phillies

Braves

Rockies

 

 

Interestingly, there's an article out today about the Braves being one of the favorites for Lazarito, fwiw.

Why can't the Sox be in the NL?!?!?

 

Ugh.

[Bob Sacamano]

Brewers

Reds

Padres (sort of)

Phillies

Braves

Rockies

 

 

Interestingly, there's an article out today about the Braves being one of the favorites for Lazarito, fwiw.

 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/163477810/am...ason-contenders

 

Article about how every team in the AL is basically a postseason contender.

 

Yeah there was an article about how them and another team (forgot who) are already lining up a bunch of amateur international signings for next period. Hope we are doing that too.

[caulfield12]

Why can't the Sox be in the NL?!?!?

 

Ugh.

 

 

The Phillies are sitting on a pile of new money with their huge regional rights deal just kicking in this year.

 

The Braves are well-positioned with their new stadium opening soon and quickly clearing the payroll except for guys like Freeman, Markakis and a couple of others.

 

And the Brewers have been one of the most profitable franchises in baseball among the smaller markets since opening their new stadium.

 

The Padres, Reds and Rockies probably have the most difficult situations to overcome....with the Reds having pissed off their fans the most.

[caulfield12]

Yeah there was an article about how them and another team (forgot who) are already lining up a bunch of amateur international signings for next period. Hope we are doing that too.

 

 

As someone mentioned, it makes sense if you can first anchor your class with a Moncada/Lazarito/Alvares/Jimenez phenom type...but you definitely don't want to go over simply because you've signed a bunch of mid-range lottery tickets without one or two clear superstar/breakout possibilities.

 

 

But if the Braves could convince Armenteros to wait to sign after the new period starts July 2, they could offer him any amount. The Braves already are expected to far exceed their signing-bonus allotment for the period that starts July 2, and some baseball insiders are convinced the Braves already have a handshake agreement in place to sign Venezuelan shortstop Kevin Maitan, the No. 1-rated prospect in that group that becomes available July 2. Maitan is described as an elite hitter and has even been compared to countryman Miguel Cabrera when Cabrera was that age.

 

A person familiar with the situation confirmed reports that the Braves will hold a private workout Saturday at their Dominican Republic academy for Amenteros, who had been expected to sign with a major league team next week and could command a bonus of $20 million or more.

 

http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/baseball/...pect-laz/nqHj4/

 

Pretty unexpected the Rays, DBacks and Royals are three of the teams that have exceeded their caps.

Edited February 3, 2016 by caulfield12

[Bob Sacamano]

As someone mentioned, it makes sense if you can first anchor your class with a Moncada/Lazarito/Alvares/Jimenez phenom type...but you definitely don't want to go over simply because you've signed a bunch of mid-range lottery tickets without one or two clear superstar/breakout possibilities.

 

Well yeah I get that. I just hope we are lining up some of those that will be eligible to sign next period now.

[caulfield12]

Well yeah I get that. I just hope we are lining up some of those that will be eligible to sign next period now.

 

Looks like the Braves are already off to a head start with #1 and #10 (Lazarito).

 

Don't forget they also ended up picking up Cuban Hector Olivera from the Dodgers and Inciarte from AZ...really focusing on their Latin American side of things when it hasn't been an area of emphasis in terms of position players since Andruw Jones came out of Curacao in 1993.

 

[Harry Chappas]

The MLB draft is as a big a crap shoot as any tanking in the MLB does not work.

 

You know what works, winning trades

 

Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo and Jake Arrieta say hi

 

The cubs have Bryant and the White Sox Rodon becasue the team that tanked missed on Appeal and Aiken

 

Houston shows some promise but they also could fall back to earth this year although Carlos Correa looks to be all that

[caulfield12]

The MLB draft is as a big a crap shoot as any tanking in the MLB does not work.

 

You know what works, winning trades

 

Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo and Jake Arrieta say hi

 

The cubs have Bryant and the White Sox Rodon becasue the team that tanked missed on Appeal and Aiken

 

Houston shows some promise but they also could fall back to earth this year although Carlos Correa looks to be all that

 

They have a really solid rotation, improved bullpen, Springer, Carlos Gomez, Altuve, they don't have the look of a flash in the pan.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Teams should be able to do whatever they want. Sometimes it is essential to get really bad in order to get really good.

[Eminor3rd]

Brewers

Reds

Padres (sort of)

Phillies

Braves

Rockies

 

 

Interestingly, there's an article out today about the Braves being one of the favorites for Lazarito, fwiw.

 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/163477810/am...ason-contenders

 

Article about how every team in the AL is basically a postseason contender.

 

Rockies are bad, but they're not tanking. They held onto CarGo, signed Gerardo Parra, and traded a younger OF for two years of a closer.

 

Padres resisted moving any of their starters despite a strong market, signed Alexei Ramirez, added Jon Jay, kept Matt Kemp.

 

And the Phillies, I'd argue, are actually now beginning the climb upward. I can almost guarantee the plan is to begin adding next winter.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

Speaking of "tanking" - why didn't Rachel Phelps just trade everybody instead of taking away the team whirlpool and team airplane??

[cabiness42]

Speaking of "tanking" - why didn't Rachel Phelps just trade everybody instead of taking away the team whirlpool and team airplane??

 

They didn't start playing well until after the trade deadline.

[harfman77]

Since the most recent CBA, tanking in baseball is a non-issue. There are maybe four teams tanking this year, and all of them look like they'll got a shot to compete within 2-3 seasons. The only team that looks like it'll run into that problem in the foreseeable future is the Tigers.

 

You are coming off the Astros and Cubs both tanking during the most recent CBA, so I'm not sure its a non-issue. Obviously it has worked well for them to accumulate talent to either join their ML rosters or to be used as trade chips to acquire ML assets. It is obviously an issue, I was hoping the Sox could have taken advantage of the system in the impending rebuild after this rebuild fails. People focus on the number one pick, but it is about much more than that, it is about having the financial flexibility in the draft to select top talent in the later rounds of the draft.

 

When the Astros selected Correa and signed him to an underslot deal, they were able to select guys like Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz later in the draft using the money banked on the Correa deal. Both guys were thought top 30 talents. Then when they selected Aiken, they had deals worked out with Jacob Nix and Mac Marshall, again two really highly thought of guys that were thought to be tough signs. Obviously Aiken not signing hurt that, but they came out ahead when they were able to sign three of the top 10 players in the draft this season re-allocating money from the Aiken pick again.

[Iwritecode]

The MLB draft is as a big a crap shoot as any tanking in the MLB does not work.

 

This.

 

Just looking back at the last few HOF classes, the only player drafted #1 overall was Griffey Jr. The only other player drafted in the top 10 was Frank Thomas.

 

Looking through a handful of recent drafts, there are a ton of names in the top ten of each year that never made much of an impact in MLB.

[Y2Jimmy0]

As Dave Cameron points out, there are really only like 4 teams rebuilding (tanking) right now anyway: Braves, Phillies, Reds, Brewers.

[Balta1701]

This.

 

Just looking back at the last few HOF classes, the only player drafted #1 overall was Griffey Jr. The only other player drafted in the top 10 was Frank Thomas.

 

Looking through a handful of recent drafts, there are a ton of names in the top ten of each year that never made much of an impact in MLB.

Somebody did need to add one of these. There's a pretty solid average difference especially in the first 5 picks, after that there's a weak trend downward.

 

Basically, on average, if you have the #1 pick and drafting is about as good as it was during this 20+ year time period, you on average get ~10 fWAR from that slot before they hit FA. If you're drafting 30th, you get on average about 2.5.

 

However, those are again averages with wide deviations. There's a pretty clear benefit to being in the top 5 picks, and a lesser but still noticeable benefit of being in the top 10. The benefit drops off pretty dramatically after that and the scatter implies that much of it is taken up by "finding the 1-2 really good players who are drafted at a particular spot".

 

To say that another way, if you're an average team at drafting and you want to build through the draft, you need to either pile up a lot of picks, or be in the top 5 (top 10 at worst), or both. And if you are giving up a pick in the first round after slot 10 to sign a free agent, that pick on average is worth about $15 million (considering the signing bonus and so on).

 

However, it is also possible to significantly outperform those numbers either by: being really good at drafting, or by winning a lottery stacked against you, even if you're not in the top 10.