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White Sox Sign Mat Latos


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QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:15 PM)
Using this as an excuse to trade Erik Johnson would be a mistake. Again I ask, how many innings can you realistically rely on Latos to pitch? This move was to bolster pitching depth.

 

And people, please stop calling things low risk/high reward. Low risk/high reward is impossible. You make me cranky.

 

Between Latos, Beck, and Turner, there is plenty of innings that can be eaten until Fulmer is ready if Johnson is moved.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:43 PM)
Do not confuse risk with price. Risk =/= Price. They're associated, but you also have to factor in the likelihood of different levels of performance.

 

A lottery ticket - a literal, actual lottery ticket - is high risk/high reward because even though it only costs a dollar, there is an overwhelmingly high chance of losing. The potential gain is great. Latos is closer to a lottery ticket than, I dunno, keeping your money under the mattress (which is low risk/low reward).

 

Didn't mean to derail the thread, but I think the chances of Latos being a dud are greater than people are admitting.

 

Risk involves chance of losing something. In this case, there isn't much risk. Even if he sucks, he can easily be cut and at no real loss to the team.

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QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:46 PM)
Everybody is calling him an asshole, but without searching on Google can somebody tell me the story to why? Or is this like the AJ is an asshole thing where you just get a reputation because you want to win?

 

 

Mike Recchia ‏@Recchia1 21m21 minutes ago

@barstoolWSD guys an ass hole bro

 

Mike Recchia ‏@Recchia1 20m20 minutes ago

@barstoolWSD hope they release him 1 day in

 

This is what Mike Recchia said to White Sox Dave about the Latos signing.

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QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:46 PM)
Everybody is calling him an asshole, but without searching on Google can somebody tell me the story to why? Or is this like the AJ is an asshole thing where you just get a reputation because you want to win?

The only things I can see is he somehow burned his bridges out of Cincinnati and was pretty upset with how the Dodgers used him. I am sure Frazier was consulted about his perceived clubhouse issues, and they signed him, so it probably isn't nearly as bad as rumored.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:42 PM)
Right, in this case he's not blocking a prospect and he's not taking a 25 man spot away from anyone that's a difference maker so there's not much opportunity cost there. It's three million, which is chicken scratch in today's market and he could possibly bounce back and have a 2-3 WAR season. It's a fine deal, they probably were able to convince him to sign based on playing time and Cooper.

 

Unless you're a huge Erik Johnson fan...because you know Danks won't simply be released or relegated to the bullpen in spring training.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 08:49 PM)
The only things I can see is he somehow burned his bridges out of Cincinnati and was pretty upset with how the Dodgers used him. I am sure Frazier was consulted about his perceived clubhouse issues, and they signed him, so it probably isn't nearly as bad as rumored.

 

There were rumors about his attitude as far back to his first few years in San Diego

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:46 PM)
Probably just the promise to compete for a spot in the rotation out of spring. At this point, how many teams were offering that and were willing to just do a one year deal? He might have had a two year deal on the table elsewhere but decided to try and rebuild some value in Chicago. He has a good year for Chicago he could easily be looking at a two or even three year deal for 20+ million next offseason.

I'm just surprised Baltimore didn't take a chance on him or offer him more than $3 million, their rotation is projected for 2nd worst in baseball.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:50 PM)
There were rumors about his attitude as far back to his first few years in San Diego

There are always rumors. Facts are, there are assholes on every team. Maybe, if he happens to be one, his struggles last year, and having to settle for $3 million, when a year ago, he probably thought he was worth at least $100 million more than that, humbles him a bit.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:24 PM)
There is no such thing as low risk / high reward. Please stop it.

 

You can say it is a low-risk signing, because it is. It's only 1/$3M.

 

But the concept is high risk / high reward or low risk / low reward, because risk isn't about what happened in the end. It's about the chances of something happening in the future. If there is a high chance of a high reward, that person isn't signing for $3M. It is also about the LIKELY reward, since obviously ANY investment could go big or go bad. Same in baseball as any other investment.

 

So this is low risk / low reward. And that's fine.

 

Now go get a bloody right fielder.

 

Yes there is. The $3M represents a relatively small financial risk to the organization and there is at least a chance that he will outperform that contract making the reward higher than the risk that was initially taken on. So if Latos puts up 1 WAR, that would be a high reward given that 1 WAR is valued at least at $6M. There is also the possibility of reward that he could be flipped mid-season for a package that has a greater value than his $3M salary.

 

His disaster of a season last year obviously increased the risk that he will be able to perform to that level, but the discount that he took in signing has already factored that risk in which is why you can sign him at the price the Sox were able to.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:43 PM)
Do not confuse risk with price. Risk =/= Price. They're associated, but you also have to factor in the likelihood of different levels of performance.

 

A lottery ticket - a literal, actual lottery ticket - is high risk/high reward because even though it only costs a dollar, there is an overwhelmingly high chance of losing. The potential gain is great. Latos is closer to a lottery ticket than, I dunno, keeping your money under the mattress (which is low risk/low reward).

 

Didn't mean to derail the thread, but I think the chances of Latos being a dud are greater than people are admitting.

But the point is he's being paid to be a dud. Like caulfield said, Latos can literally be John Danks from last year and provide a return 4x his cost, with an upside for an even greater return (even if the odds are relatively small).

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:46 PM)
Risk involves chance of losing something. In this case, there isn't much risk. Even if he sucks, he can easily be cut and at no real loss to the team.

"Even if I lose the lottery, I just throw the ticket away at no real loss to my bank account." But a lottery ticket is definitively a high-risk purchase. Again, risk =/= price.

 

I don't really know how else to say but I'm gonna drop it for now.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:53 PM)
I'm just surprised Baltimore didn't take a chance on him or offer him more than $3 million, their rotation is projected for 2nd worst in baseball.

His reputation seems to have cost him some potential suitors and cash money. Hopefully, the White Sox benefit. I am not a big fan of him, but for $3 million? If he sucks, he cost less than Scott Downs, and Emilio Bonifacio.

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Guys. No, there is no such thing as "low risk, high reward". Does not exist. The risk/reward view is an anticipation of the future - not a look-back on how things performed. That's the first fundamental part I think people misunderstand here.

 

Risk is what is put on the line - what is invested, aka what you could potentially lose. $3M in this case. Which in MLB for a potential starting pitcher is quite low risk. So that is clear.

 

Reward is future value, or otherwise put, present value of anticipated future return. Future value (or risk-adjusted NPV) is a cross-function of two pieces of data: potential payback (in performance), and the likelihood of that payback. Now, Latos has shown enough that there is a potentially big payback. I think that's where some of you are getting confused - you end it there. But future value, which is the "reward" part here, also includes that stubborn part about likelihood. Is it likely that Latos is a mid-rotation starter or better? Absolutely not. If it was, do you really think he signs for $3M?

 

The chances of a good return are low, even though that return COULD be quite high. This is the definition of low risk, low reward.

 

That all said... good signing.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:47 PM)
Mike Recchia ‏@Recchia1 21m21 minutes ago

@barstoolWSD guys an ass hole bro

 

Mike Recchia ‏@Recchia1 20m20 minutes ago

@barstoolWSD hope they release him 1 day in

 

This is what Mike Recchia said to White Sox Dave about the Latos signing.

 

That doesn't really expand on why ... Just like most people here, I'm sure we are happy AJ was here. I feel like I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt. Not going to say any names, but a lot of these guys aren't exactly saints. I've seen them out and about at bars sans wife before... just saying.

 

Throw the ball well, keep your ERA down, and play to win the game. That's what I'm here to see. I'm not here to care if you have 10 gf's outside of your wife. I'm here to see your baseball skills and get a win. As long as he's not abusing anyone, he's fine on my team.

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QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:58 PM)
That doesn't really expand on why ... Just like most people here, I'm sure we are happy AJ was here. I feel like I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt. Not going to say any names, but a lot of these guys aren't exactly saints. I've seen them out and about at bars sans wife before... just saying.

Maybe Mike knows something. I'll ask him.

 

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QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 03:58 PM)
That doesn't really expand on why ... Just like most people here, I'm sure we are happy AJ was here. I feel like I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt. Not going to say any names, but a lot of these guys aren't exactly saints. I've seen them out and about at bars sans wife before... just saying.

 

Throw the ball well, keep your ERA down, and play to win the game. That's what I'm here to see. I'm not here to care if you have 10 gf's outside of your wife. I'm here to see your baseball skills and get a win. As long as he's not abusing anyone, he's fine on my team.

 

Yea this. He seems like he's a dick towards women but if that is an issue than f*** who you gonna sign? Just don't hit women. But cheating and sleeping around and leading girls on? Par for the course for pro athletes.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 01:54 PM)
"Even if I lose the lottery, I just throw the ticket away at no real loss to my bank account." But a lottery ticket is definitively a high-risk purchase. Again, risk =/= price.

 

I don't really know how else to say but I'm gonna drop it for now.

 

To each their own then.

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