BP projects Sox at 82-80, 2nd in ALC

[OmarComing25]

Also wrote a preemptive article on why they projected the Royals to be bad again:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=28457

 

In summary, says they don't expect the Royals to be super clutch again, the bullpen after Davis isn't that special, the rotation is bad, Cain will regress, and there are 3-4 holes in the lineup. Hope they're right, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

90 wins for the Rays, 80 wins for the Brewers and Padres, 82 wins for the Cardinals, and of course 77 wins for the Royals. Some strange choices here.

Edited February 16, 2016 by OmarComing25

[southsider2k5]

I do see a really bunched up AL Central standings for 2016. Maybe one team breaks away with good or bad luck, but it should be a tight finish.

[Dunt]

I dont see the AL East being that good at all

[LDF]

I dont see the AL East being that good at all

 

great catch.....

 

i agree. i see AL Central and AL West. i am looking at the possibility of what would it take as a wild-card.

 

i agree with cle, i said this at the beginning of the off season. they have a very good, potentially great team. chi is 2nd easily based on their improvement and pitching.

 

but still. i think they still need a minor little fix to make this team even better.

 

hope RV is up to the task.

[Tannerfan]

I think it's hard to take these predictions seriously because they're done now before spring training begins, as opposed to right before the actual season starts.

BP bases its predictions on "the numbers" but wouldn't they have a better chance of accuracy after rosters are set?

Not to mention there's no way WARP or ERA+ can take into account a teams best pitcher jumping from the back of a pickup truck, injuring his foot, and missing his first three or four starts.

Just saying.

[LDF]

I think it's hard to take these predictions seriously because they're done now before spring training begins, as opposed to right before the actual season starts.

BP bases its predictions on "the numbers" but wouldn't they have a better chance of accuracy after rosters are set?

Not to mention there's no way WARP or ERA+ can take into account a teams best pitcher jumping from the back of a pickup truck, injuring his foot, and missing his first three or four starts.

Just saying.

 

very much so. but these companies want to get that news preview and crap.

 

but you do make a point.

[Dick Allen]

I think it's hard to take these predictions seriously because they're done now before spring training begins, as opposed to right before the actual season starts.

BP bases its predictions on "the numbers" but wouldn't they have a better chance of accuracy after rosters are set?

Not to mention there's no way WARP or ERA+ can take into account a teams best pitcher jumping from the back of a pickup truck, injuring his foot, and missing his first three or four starts.

Just saying.

Of course they are ridiculous. But it gets people talking. Most predictions for entire league records turn out to be laughable at the end of the season. I am not sure if it was BP or Fangraphs who had every team that finished in last place in the AL last season actually making the playoffs in their preseason end of spring training predictions.

Edited February 16, 2016 by Dick Allen

[LDF]

Of course they are ridiculous. But it gets people talking. Most predictions for entire league records turn out to be laughable at the end of the season. I am not sure if it was BP or Fangraphs who had every team that finished in last place in the AL last season actually making the playoffs in their preseason end of spring training predictions.

 

i would really love it if some independent new companies goes back and get those predictions and the end of season results and post them....

[Tannerfan]

i would really love it if some independent new companies goes back and get those predictions and the end of season results and post them....

 

In '05 BP had the White Sox finishing around 500, and I think in 4th place.

To their credit they wrote a what went wrong (for them) article after the World Series.

[LDF]

In '05 BP had the White Sox finishing around 500, and I think in 4th place.

To their credit they wrote a what went wrong (for them) article after the World Series.

 

thanks for that info.

 

yeah i too have to give BP credit for doing the right thing.

[SCCWS]

I dont see the AL East being that good at all

 

I think they are the best division in AL top to bottom.

 

[LDF]

I think they are the best division in AL top to bottom.

 

really ???? i really have to go back and study that....

 

for me and i have stated this before,i think AL Central is the best...... Cle is too darn talented and young.

 

but i will go back and look at it.

[BlackSox13]

I like BA and all but I just cannot grasp many of these predictions. I know some teams surprise and some teams flop but these projections are pretty far out there.

[LDF]

I like BA and all but I just cannot grasp many of these predictions. I know some teams surprise and some teams flop but these projections are pretty far out there.

 

i like BA for their accumulated info on all the org top 30 and the top 100 list. great reading. again i will not agree with all they have, but it is good reading.

[LDF]

I think they are the best division in AL top to bottom.

 

ok going back and looking at it thru the eyes of not being biased. (per cbs sports line)

 

~~ Baltimore

~~ Boston Red Sox

~~ New York Yankees

~~ Tampa Bay Rays

~~ Toronto Blue Jays

 

ok the key word in your statement is, for me, from top to bottom.

 

you are correct and i was wrong. even the weakest team is strong, stronger the the projected Twins and Rangers.

 

really good.

[Dunt]

I think they are the best division in AL top to bottom.

 

I think they are the worst division personally. I think the Jays and Red Sox are the best teams and they have some pretty obvious weaknesses. I think the Rangers and Stros are better than any teams in that division and I think the central is gonna be a slugfest.

[SCCWS]

I think they are the worst division personally. I think the Jays and Red Sox are the best teams and they have some pretty obvious weaknesses. I think the Rangers and Stros are better than any teams in that division and I think the central is gonna be a slugfest.

 

Now I am not as big on Tampa Bay as BP. Boston, however, is probably the best 1-9 offense in baseball, great bench, solid bullpen and questionable starting rotation. Toronto is another loaded offensive team that like Boston if they get staring pitching will be a top tier team. I don't think Cleveland is as good as BP projects and KC as bad.