southsider2k5 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 So far we have the following. There is a 17 game spread between the highest and lowest totals, and the Sox are picked between 1st and last place. 90-72 1st place- USA Today 82-80 2nd place BP 81-81 tied 2nd Fangraphs 4th place, Athlon sports 73-89 5th place, Bleacher report. 80.5 wins 4th place Atlantis Casino Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:28 PM) So far we have the following. There is a 17 game spread between the highest and lowest totals, and the Sox are picked between 1st and last place. 90-72 1st place- USA Today 82-80 2nd place BP 81-81 tied 2nd Fangraphs 4th place, Athlon sports 73-89 5th place, Bleacher report. 80.5 wins 4th place Atlantis Casino Only way we lose 89 games is if one of the big guys goes down to injury. I think 80-85 is where we will finish up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That Bleacher Report prediction is pretty obnoxious. The Sox went 76-86 last year. Their Pythagorean W/L was 72-90. They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move) Replaced Gillaspie/Saladino/Olt with Todd Frazier (a huge plus) Replaced Sanchez with Lawrie (a fairly substantial plus) Replaced Flowers/Soto with Navarro/Avila (a plus) Replaced Ramirez with Saladino (jury's out but should be a plus) Should see advancements made by Rodon and hopefully Avi All that and they see they as regressing by 3 wins or progressing by just 1 win using the Pythagorean record? Give me a break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move) Da f***? "One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???" GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:37 PM) That Bleacher Report prediction is pretty obnoxious. The Sox went 76-86 last year. Their Pythagorean W/L was 72-90. They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move) Replaced Gillaspie/Saladino/Olt with Todd Frazier (a huge plus) Replaced Sanchez with Lawrie (a fairly substantial plus) Replaced Flowers/Soto with Navarro/Avila (a plus) Replaced Ramirez with Saladino (jury's out but should be a plus) Should see advancements made by Rodon and hopefully Avi All that and they see they as regressing by 3 wins or progressing by just 1 win using the Pythagorean record? Give me a break. Bleacher Report isn't exactly a hub of intellectual sports thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 06:37 PM) That Bleacher Report prediction is pretty obnoxious. The Sox went 76-86 last year. Their Pythagorean W/L was 72-90. They are replacing a pretty poor Samardzija with Latos (probably a plus move) Replaced Gillaspie/Saladino/Olt with Todd Frazier (a huge plus) Replaced Sanchez with Lawrie (a fairly substantial plus) Replaced Flowers/Soto with Navarro/Avila (a plus) Replaced Ramirez with Saladino (jury's out but should be a plus) Should see advancements made by Rodon and hopefully Avi All that and they see they as regressing by 3 wins or progressing by just 1 win using the Pythagorean record? Give me a break. nice write up, no offense, i may not agree with all, but still really nice write up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 this is a great idea this topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:41 PM) Da f***? "One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???" GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom. We're not talking about 2016 Latos vs. 2016 Samardzija. We're talking about 2016 Latos vs. 2015 Samardzija. It shouldn't be too difficult to outperform a 4.96 ERA, although I don't expect Latos to pitch 214 innings, so he'd have to do more than just beat Samardzija's ERA. Samardzija didn't get $90 million based on his 2015 season, so that should be irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lasttriptotulsa Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:41 PM) Da f***? "One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???" GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom. I stated that the 2016 Latos would probably be better than the 2015 Samardzija. What's wrong with that. It isn't a stretch at all. Latos had a half run better FIP than Samardzija last year. He may not be able to hit 200 innings but if there is one team in baseball that will give him the chance to stay healthy all year it's the Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:41 PM) Da f***? "One of these pitchers got $90 million guaranteed. One of these pitchers got $3 million guaranteed. Why on Earth would a national publication writing the supposed conventional wisdom think that swap is a downgrade???" GMAB. Yes, Latos could darn well be an upgrade over Samardzija, but the league just made an $87 million bet that he won't be. These predictions are based on that kind of conventional wisdom. Isn't Rodon technically replace shark and Latos replacing noesi from last opening day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSox Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:01 PM) Isn't Rodon technically replace shark and Latos replacing noesi from last opening day. Very good way of looking at it. In that regard, the Sox pitching staff is even better than last year's by a wide margin on paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 So far we have the following. There is a 17 game spread between the highest and lowest totals, and the Sox are picked between 1st and last place. 90-72 1st place- USA Today 82-80 2nd place BP 81-81 tied 2nd Fangraphs 4th place, Athlon sports 73-89 5th place, Bleacher report. 80.5 wins 4th place Atlantis Casino It's settled then. Sox are guaranteed to finish 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 02:13 PM) Very good way of looking at it. In that regard, the Sox pitching staff is even better than last year's by a wide margin on paper. There's a good chance that the Sox have the best rotation in the AL. Cleveland was #1 in fWAR last year and Sox were 2nd. Samardzija's 216 innings and K's did help though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSox Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:15 PM) There's a good chance that the Sox have the best rotation in the AL. Cleveland was #1 in fWAR last year and Sox were 2nd. Samardzija's 216 innings and K's did help though. No doubt. Overall, I think their rotation will end up being on par if not a bit better than last year. Will be interesting to see if the pen stays more consistent & if the hitting comes through the way some are hoping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:33 PM) Only way we lose 89 games is if one of the big guys goes down to injury. I think 80-85 is where we will finish up. I think you can throw out the 73 and 90 win predictions as ones that would take a couple standard deviations of "luck" to happen. Even the 76 win team we just had contained some terrible years by guys who usually weren't terrible. Adding Frazier, Lawrie, and the new catching duo to this mix should really pick up three of the worst positions on the field. I think the low to mid 80's is a good baseline for win prediction. Right now I would say 84 or 85 sounds right to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 02:15 PM) There's a good chance that the Sox have the best rotation in the AL. Cleveland was #1 in fWAR last year and Sox were 2nd. Samardzija's 216 innings and K's did help though. Sox SP were #1 in the AL by fWAR last year at 17.4, the Indians were third with 15.9. But yes, Samardzija made up 2.7 of that number. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thad Bosley Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 03:20 PM) I think you can throw out the 73 and 90 win predictions as ones that would take a couple standard deviations of "luck" to happen. Even the 76 win team we just had contained some terrible years by guys who usually weren't terrible. Adding Frazier, Lawrie, and the new catching duo to this mix should really pick up three of the worst positions on the field. I think the low to mid 80's is a good baseline for win prediction. Right now I would say 84 or 85 sounds right to me. When you look at the current situation this way, where you are just bumping up against a possible postseason appearance but also maybe just coming up a bit short, it almost seems worth it to give up the draft pick and just go and get Fowler and replace Garcia with him. Could literally mean the difference between making the playoffs and not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSox Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Feb 16, 2016 -> 12:35 PM) When you look at the current situation this way, where you are just bumping up against a possible postseason appearance but also maybe just coming up a bit short, it almost seems worth it to give up the draft pick and just go and get Fowler and replace Garcia with him. Could literally mean the difference between making the playoffs and not. I've been trying to say this same thing. They are more than likely a fringe team right now. Adding a guy like Fowler or Desmond greatly improves your chances, especially in this certain scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sox 17th in Jonah Keri's power rankings, immediately behind Detroit and Cleveland. Twins 22, Royals 10. http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/18/the-30-pr...-power-rankings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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