Dave Cameron - Grading the Offseason

[kevo880]

I'm not going to lie, I have grown tired of hearing everyone on this board b*tch about how this offseason has been such a failure. I feel like I'm one of the only people here that is pleased with the moves that have been made. Well, apparently Dave Cameron at Fangraphs thinks quite highly of the Sox offseason as well.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/grading-the...r-all-30-teams/

 

"4. Chicago White Sox

Grade: B+

 

Last year, the White Sox tried to push in on contention a bit early, and ended up with a disappointing roster. This year’s moves to solidify the depth of the organization seem to have gone a bit better, with the Todd Frazier trade in particular representing a big upgrade at a minimal price. While they’re certainly betting against the importance of team chemistry by bringing in both Brett Lawrie and Mat Latos — the acquisition prices there reflect the poor reputations those guys have around the league — the White Sox managed to solidify some very weak spots from last year, and while I’m still not sure they’re quite good enough to win their division, they’ve at least put themselves in striking distance.

 

The Frazier trade alone was enough to call this a good winter, and if Lawrie or Latos live up to the potential suggested by their talent, the risks they took could pay off in a significant way."

[BlackSox13]

I'm with you Kevo and I've said a few times that I'm extatic about the what has been accomplished this winter and am looking forward to seeing a better brand of baseball on the field. Sure, the Sox could use an upgrade in the OF and I'm sure Hahn is still working on it but 3B, 2B and C were the biggest holes which have been filled. Anyone that seriously thought the Sox would be able to fill every hole (3B/2B/C/SS/RF/DH) this winter was delusional.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm with you Kevo and I've said a few times that I'm extatic about the what has been accomplished this winter and am looking forward to seeing a better brand of baseball on the field. Sure, the Sox could use an upgrade in the OF and I'm sure Hahn is still working on it but 3B, 2B and C were the biggest holes which have been filled. Anyone that seriously thought the Sox would be able to fill every hole (3B/2B/C/SS/RF/DH) this winter was delusional.

It's not about filling every hole, it's about filling as many as you can while hedging your risk at the remaining trouble spots. Right now, Avi & LaRoche are uncontested starters at two of those spots. In a market flush with OFs, not at the very least adding a guy who could push these two for playing time is an absolute failure. I'm willing to give Hahn until opening day to add another OF, but right now, the offseason grade should be incomplete because he's completely ignored one of the easiest and most obvious areas to improve this roster.

[asindc]

It's not about filling every hole, it's about filling as many as you can while hedging your risk at the remaining trouble spots. Right now, Avi & LaRoche are uncontested starters at two of those spots. In a market flush with OFs, not at the very least adding a guy who could push these two for playing time is an absolute failure. I'm willing to give Hahn until opening day to add another OF, but right now, the offseason grade should be incomplete because he's completely ignored one of the easiest and most obvious areas to improve this roster.

 

I don't think he is ignoring it.

[blackmooncreeping]

I don't think he is ignoring it.

I agree--why some equate 'no transaction yet' with 'the team has completely ignored this need' is beyond me. There is still PLENTY of time to bring in another outfielder, and also plenty of options still available. This is how you should play/approach a buyer's market.

[BlackSox13]

It's not about filling every hole, it's about filling as many as you can while hedging your risk at the remaining trouble spots. Right now, Avi & LaRoche are uncontested starters at two of those spots. In a market flush with OFs, not at the very least adding a guy who could push these two for playing time is an absolute failure. I'm willing to give Hahn until opening day to add another OF, but right now, the offseason grade should be incomplete because he's completely ignored one of the easiest and most obvious areas to improve this roster.

I agree it's about filling as many of the holes as apossible but most teams have holes and the Sox are no different. I disagree that Hahn ignored the OF hole and in fact Hahn has publically said numerous times this winter that he is trying to add to the OF. I also disagree that the OF hole was the " easiest " to upgrade, if it was so " easy " we wouldn't be having this discussion.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm willing to give Hahn until opening day to add another OF, but right now, the offseason grade should be incomplete because he's completely ignored one of the easiest and most obvious areas to improve this roster.

 

 

I agree--why some equate 'no transaction yet' with 'the team has completely ignored this need' is beyond me. There is still PLENTY of time to bring in another outfielder, and also plenty of options still available. This is how you should play/approach a buyer's market.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I agree it's about filling as many of the holes as apossible but most teams have holes and the Sox are no different. I disagree that Hahn ignored the OF hole and in fact Hahn has publically said numerous times this winter that he is trying to add to the OF. I also disagree that the OF hole was the " easiest " to upgrade, if it was so " easy " we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Not true at all. The front office may still be high on Avi and don't want to force him into a platoon/bench just yet. It's very possible (especially if you saw PR machine in action at SoxFest) that the Sox were only willing to add an OF if that player was of the impact variety (3+ WAR type). They very well could passing on solid upgrades because they believe in Avi taking that next step this year.

[Eminor3rd]

Yeah I can't give them credit for something that hasn't been done. The offseason DOES look good from the 10,000 foot view of a national writer, who is primarily looking at a list of transactions. But in the context of the roster and the market that existed, the lack of a high-end OF addition is major flop, and one that could cost a couple highly valuable wins given where we're likely to be on the curve.

 

I'll be much happier if we add a Fowler/Jackson type at a reasonable price, but I still think that this was absolutely the year to offer the first big-boy free agent contract in team history (well, excluding Albert Belle) and get a juicy 4WAR upgrade in RF.

[BlackSox13]

Not true at all. The front office may still be high on Avi and don't want to force him into a platoon/bench just yet. It's very possible (especially if you saw PR machine in action at SoxFest) that the Sox were only willing to add an OF if that player was of the impact variety (3+ WAR type). They very well could passing on solid upgrades because they believe in Avi taking that next step this year.

Absolutely true according to Hahn's numerous comment's throughout the winter. The Sox were not only tied to FA outfielders but we're also inquiring about the Rockies outfielders, Puig and possibly Ethier. The Sox can believe in Avi and still seek to upgrade the OF. If the Sox upgrade the OF, Avi would still get atbats being LaRoche's platoon partner and as the teams rotating 4th OF by giving the corner outfielders a day off against RHP from time to time. Avi would still have a role on the team, just a smaller role which could take some of the pressure off of him to produce as an everyday player. If Avi were to show some signs of life this season as platoon/part time player, LaRoche is gone after this year and a spot would be open. Avi is only 24 so if the Sox do actually believe in Avi there is time left for him.

 

Personally, I don't have much faith left in Avi but that's just my opinion.

[kevo880]

Yeah I can't give them credit for something that hasn't been done. The offseason DOES look good from the 10,000 foot view of a national writer, who is primarily looking at a list of transactions. But in the context of the roster and the market that existed, the lack of a high-end OF addition is major flop, and one that could cost a couple highly valuable wins given where we're likely to be on the curve.

 

I'll be much happier if we add a Fowler/Jackson type at a reasonable price, but I still think that this was absolutely the year to offer the first big-boy free agent contract in team history (well, excluding Albert Belle) and get a juicy 4WAR upgrade in RF.

 

I simply disagree with you. How many teams have multiple 3-4 WAR upgrades in one offseason? We already have it with Frazier and have noticeable upgrades at 2 other positions. I don't think it's a major flop, as you said, that we didn't also add a 3-4 WAR OFer. I'll be shocked if the sox don't add another OFer, but they are going to do it their way, which means going through every option and make the best decision instead of making a stupid move because they feel pressure from fans that don't think they did enough this offseason.

[Dunt]

Kinda blows my mind that the Cubs got #1 in his rankings. Nearly $300 million for a really nice RF, an old 2B, and an old SP. The Cubs cocksmoking is real.

[hi8is]

Lots of talk here about holes. Therefore, I like it.

Edit: on a serious note - I'm surprised the Braves aren't listed higher. Their Miller trade was highway robbery and to me lands them as one of the three top winners this offseason no matter what.

Edited February 22, 2016 by hi8is

[bmags]

Yeah his Braves ranking was a headscratcher. You can't spend the whole article acknowledging the weak market for position players and then basically dock them for a lower return than expected for their SS, all the while getting the steal of the winter.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Kinda blows my mind that the Cubs got #1 in his rankings. Nearly $300 million for a really nice RF, an old 2B, and an old SP. The Cubs cocksmoking is real.

 

Stop it. If this were anybody but the Cubs you wouldn't be saying anything. The Cubs absolutely had an A+ offseason and everybody know it.

[fathom]

Stop it. If this were anybody but the Cubs you wouldn't be saying anything. The Cubs absolutely had an A+ offseason and everybody know it.

 

Completely disagree....they should have landed a top 1-2 rotation pitcher with all the resources they had available. Also not a fan of the Zobrist acquisition with his AWFUL defense last year.

[Eminor3rd]

I simply disagree with you. How many teams have multiple 3-4 WAR upgrades in one offseason? We already have it with Frazier and have noticeable upgrades at 2 other positions.

 

That's like leaving $20 on the ground because you already found $20 earlier. The fact that's it's difficult to make multiple huge improvements doesn't mean the Sox should feel content letting opportunities pass by -- the RF market presented the easiest path to improvement for this team BY FAR. It was the softest free agent market for position players in probably ten years, there were twice as many high-end corner OF options available than at any other position, and there were remarkably few teams interested in buying. Price were lower than literally anyone predicted. They were so low that teams that didn't even have openings in the OF were acquiring talent simply because the value was impossible to pass up.

 

The Frazier trade was awesome! Great job! Why skip the easy follow-up? Why not complete the picture?

 

I don't think it's a major flop, as you said, that we didn't also add a 3-4 WAR OFer. I'll be shocked if the sox don't add another OFer, but they are going to do it their way, which means going through every option and make the best decision instead of making a stupid move because they feel pressure from fans that don't think they did enough this offseason.

 

Again, if the glut of OF talent were all pulling in $150m contracts or costing multiple top prospects to acquire, I'd have no issue with the lack of movement. I believe wholeheartedly that Hahn has wisely avoided overpaying for stuff he wants -- but that's NOT what happened here. Upgrading in RF would not be "making a stupid move because of fan pressure," it would be upgrading on a career sub-replacement black hole when the universe flopped a boon of all the necessary talent right in front of you at discount prices.

 

I get what you're saying -- all the moves Hahn DID make were great. I liked them all individually. But ultimate success in the MLB is a binary thing. Please excuse the following mess of mixed sports metaphors, but ignoring the lay-up of making a massive, relatively cheap upgrade in RF feels like running the ball to the 2-yard line and taking a knee.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Completely disagree....they should have landed a top 1-2 rotation pitcher with all the resources they had available. Also not a fan of the Zobrist acquisition with his AWFUL defense last year.

 

And then everybody here would be saying "hahahaha, the cubs will be paying Price 30 million when he sucks in the playoffs, etc" Zobrist's D was bad last year, but absolutely stellar prior to that. I need to see more than one bad year (yes, he's older) before determining he's truly slipped in that area.

[Dunt]

Stop it. If this were anybody but the Cubs you wouldn't be saying anything. The Cubs absolutely had an A+ offseason and everybody know it.

 

B/c I'm a big Cubs naysayer on this board? Dont be so defensive, your team will still be good whether or not these FA acquisitions pan out or not.

[Jordan4life_2007]

B/c I'm a big Cubs naysayer on this board? Dont be so defensive, your team will still be good whether or not these FA acquisitions pan out or not.

 

Don't get mad at me that it took them less than 4 years to build a powerhouse. 97 wins is their floor. Wouldn't be surprised if they won 100-105 games.

[OmarComing25]

Don't get mad at me that it took them less than 4 years to build a powerhouse. 97 wins is their floor. Wouldn't be surprised if they won 100-105 games.

Their floor is 97 wins? That's laughable. You realize what sport this is right? Even the most optimistic Cub fans wouldn't agree with that.

Edited February 22, 2016 by OmarComing25

[Dunt]

Don't get mad at me that it took them less than 4 years to build a powerhouse. 97 wins is their floor. Wouldn't be surprised if they won 100-105 games.

 

What?

Edited February 22, 2016 by Dunt

[kevo880]

That's like leaving $20 on the ground because you already found $20 earlier. The fact that's it's difficult to make multiple huge improvements doesn't mean the Sox should feel content letting opportunities pass by -- the RF market presented the easiest path to improvement for this team BY FAR. It was the softest free agent market for position players in probably ten years, there were twice as many high-end corner OF options available than at any other position, and there were remarkably few teams interested in buying. Price were lower than literally anyone predicted. They were so low that teams that didn't even have openings in the OF were acquiring talent simply because the value was impossible to pass up.

 

The Frazier trade was awesome! Great job! Why skip the easy follow-up? Why not complete the picture?

 

 

 

Again, if the glut of OF talent were all pulling in $150m contracts or costing multiple top prospects to acquire, I'd have no issue with the lack of movement. I believe wholeheartedly that Hahn has wisely avoided overpaying for stuff he wants -- but that's NOT what happened here. Upgrading in RF would not be "making a stupid move because of fan pressure," it would be upgrading on a career sub-replacement black hole when the universe flopped a boon of all the necessary talent right in front of you at discount prices.

 

I get what you're saying -- all the moves Hahn DID make were great. I liked them all individually. But ultimate success in the MLB is a binary thing. Please excuse the following mess of mixed sports metaphors, but ignoring the lay-up of making a massive, relatively cheap upgrade in RF feels like running the ball to the 2-yard line and taking a knee.

 

Gordon wasn't going anywhere except staying with KC, Upton wanted nothing to do with the South Side, and the Cespedes situation was a mess. When it comes down to it, he got what he wanted from the Mets and that's why he stayed there. The fact that you think it would be easy to get any of these 3 is laughable. It would have been an overpay if we somehow acquired any of them.

 

You are also not understanding my stance. I'm saying I fully expect them to sign an OFer still, but it will be when either the player accepts they won't get the offer they want, or if it is via trade it will be when that team is willing to pull the trigger. If it's the Dodgers or Rays it looks like they will eventually have to make a move from their crowded outfields.

 

There hasn't been a layup massive upgrade out there that the Sox have passed on. They are obviously trying to improve the position and haven't found anything they liked enough to pull the trigger.

 

The people that piss and moan that we haven't signed Jackson or Fowler yet, and think it's a failure simply because we haven't is a joke. Are they improvements? Yes. Do they take this team to the next level? No.

[kevo880]

Don't get mad at me that it took them less than 4 years to build a powerhouse. 97 wins is their floor. Wouldn't be surprised if they won 100-105 games.

 

Yeah I gotta say 97 wins as a floor is not realistic. If things go horribly wrong, like they do sometimes (injuries, underperforming, etc), then they could definitely win less than 97 games.

[Eminor3rd]

Gordon wasn't going anywhere except staying with KC, Upton wanted nothing to do with the South Side, and the Cespedes situation was a mess. When it comes down to it, he got what he wanted from the Mets and that's why he stayed there. The fact that you think it would be easy to get any of these 3 is laughable. It would have been an overpay if we somehow acquired any of them.

 

You are also not understanding my stance. I'm saying I fully expect them to sign an OFer still, but it will be when either the player accepts they won't get the offer they want, or if it is via trade it will be when that team is willing to pull the trigger. If it's the Dodgers or Rays it looks like they will eventually have to make a move from their crowded outfields.

 

There hasn't been a layup massive upgrade out there that the Sox have passed on. They are obviously trying to improve the position and haven't found anything they liked enough to pull the trigger.

 

The people that piss and moan that we haven't signed Jackson or Fowler yet, and think it's a failure simply because we haven't is a joke. Are they improvements? Yes. Do they take this team to the next level? No.

 

When you're a .500 team in a division full of .500 teams, upgrading a -1.0 WAR to something like 2.0 WAR is exactly the type of move that takes a team to the next level.