Dave Cameron - Grading the Offseason

[Dick Allen]

Frazier and Lawrie aren't bad defenders though. Not as good as Sanchez and Saladino but I'll take the slightly worse defense for way better offense. The bad defense isn't why the White Sox were horrible last year. It was having an all time bad offense.

Yes. The White Sox significantly upgraded the defense during the season last year. Saladino was phenomenal at 3B, Sanchez great at 2B, Trayce spent some time in the OF, yet it didn't lead to many more wins compared to when horrid defenders Gillaspie, Micah, and Avi or Melky were in there. You have to score to win. As long as these guys are at least average with the glove, make the plays they should make, and score runs, they will be fine.

[GreenSox]

Frazier and Lawrie aren't bad defenders though. Not as good as Sanchez and Saladino but I'll take the slightly worse defense for way better offense. The bad defense isn't why the White Sox were horrible last year. It was having an all time bad offense.

That's true.

But the idea is not to be "not bad" but to be good. And the failure to upgrade the OF defense (and actually downgraded it as they had a good defender there for a month) could prevent to the Sox from being good.

And that's why I like the idea of Jackson. He will improve the OF defense and I think that if they use him appropriately they could get enough out of him offensively.

[kevo880]

I missed the part where you highlighted something I ignored. If you're referring to the part where you said you think they'll still upgrade before OD, then I'll point out that you ignored the latter half of my original post, where I addressed just that.

 

If Avi sucks like he always has, the team will be actively harmed until better options become available via trade, at which point they will be forced to give up a substantial amount of talent to acquire someone to improve the team for AT MOST half the season. Guys don't become available earlier than that. Since there are only about 4-6 true "sellers" at the deadline these days, prices will be high, as opposed to historically low like they are right now.

 

If you believe in Avi, then by all means make an argument for Avi. But it doesn't make strategic sense to sit out a soft market on a weakness, only to instead improve on the weakness later when the cost is higher and you've already suffered the weakness for half or more of the season.

 

 

 

There's no incentive to pretend you're in the race for big free agents all winter only to disappoint everyone by letting them sign with your division rivals for less than anyone expected. The bottom line is that there were several major upgrades that were affordable. Either Hahn massively overplayed his hand, or the White Sox are a PR disaster and caulfield is actually right that they'll never spend any money. I want to believe that they WILL spend when it makes sense to do so, and I can't remember a situation where it made more sense than to do so here.

 

I didn't realize I had to highlight what you ignored since you knew exactly what I was referring to, but anyways. I'm not an Avi supporter, but I do understand if the Sox can't find someone for their price then I think it makes sense to give Avi another go. He's a 24 year old with about 2 full season's worth of at bats, but has only played 1 full season in the majors. His defense sucks, but let's at least see if he can be a useful bat instead of jumping ship for a dumb contract.

[iamshack]

I think it is completely obvious that resources are a problem. There is literally no other reason to stop where they are.

All I will say is see Eminor's post on this issue.

 

If they literally were out of resources, or were nowhere near where they needed to be to sign any of these guys, they either drastically misunderstood the market, or they wanted to cocktease the entire fanbase.

 

I'm not saying that resources aren't tight, but I do believe they were willing to sign any of the three major FA outfielders at "their price," meaning, a price Rick Hahn was comfortable with.

[kevo880]

All I will say is see Eminor's post on this issue.

 

If they literally were out of resources, or were nowhere near where they needed to be to sign any of these guys, they either drastically misunderstood the market, or they wanted to cocktease the entire fanbase.

 

I'm not saying that resources aren't tight, but I do believe they were willing to sign any of the three major FA outfielders at "their price," meaning, a price Rick Hahn was comfortable with.

 

Gordon was not leaving KC and Upton wouldn't even hear the Sox out. Why don't people understand this?

 

Hahn has no plan. He does not want to improve the team.

[Eminor3rd]

I didn't realize I had to highlight what you ignored since you knew exactly what I was referring to, but anyways. I'm not an Avi supporter, but I do understand if the Sox can't find someone for their price then I think it makes sense to give Avi another go. He's a 24 year old with about 2 full season's worth of at bats, but has only played 1 full season in the majors. His defense sucks, but let's at least see if he can be a useful bat instead of jumping ship for a dumb contract.

 

So if I was right, I didn't ignore anything, because I addressed it the very first post you quoted to begin this discussion. So what are you trying to say?

 

Anyways

 

I don't disagree with your argument conceptually -- like I said before, I believe Hahn has been wise in the past about walking away from valuable pieces when the price reaches a point that it erodes the value. Where I disagree is that the only option to replacing Avi was "a dumb contract." The reason I'm getting so worked up about RF specifically is because NONE of the contracts or trades that we've seen come to completion are "dumb." To the contrary they've all been "about right" at worst and "team-friendly" at best. The players that remain, according to rumor, are about to sign team-friendly deals as well.

 

I go back to the Jose Abreu signing in my head. Before that, the biggest free agent contract in team history was Albert Belle's 5/55 in the late 90's -- meaning there was essentially NO precedent for the White Sox to open up the books for Abreu, and so it was a little difficult to believe it would happen. But it just made SO much sense as a baseball move. The team was forced into a "rebuild" but wanted it to go quickly, the team had practically no big money on the books, and the team's franchise icon at first (Konerko) was on his way out. The fit was ideal; more ideal that it was for any other team, and so it made sense to break the bank. And they did.

 

That move made me confident that the front office was willing to buck its own "party line" when it made sense to do so, which is all anyone can really ask. I'm not going to re-list the reasons for the hundredth time, but buying a corner OF in this soft market made exactly the same kind of sense that the Abreu deal did. It's disappointing to me because the failure to make this move means either (1) I've overstated ownership's willingness to spend big money, even when it makes sense, (2) Hahn overplayed his negotiating hand, and simply dropped the ball at his favorite game, or (3) the White Sox still somehow believe in giving a large number of important ABs to Avisail Garcia, which, in my opinion, indicates a lack of understanding about their own ability to develop players that have tool but no semblance of baseball skills. I'd rather the explanation be #2, because if the dude just made a mistake, it's at least not indicative of a long-term issue.

 

But in any case, it's a failure -- and it's one that carries a relatively good chance of having a substantial negative impact on the 2016 season. If they get Fowler or Jackson, it's a moot point. If Avi breaks out, this will look shrewd somehow. But those things are more likely NOT to happen than they are to happen, at this point, and so it worries me.

[kevo880]

So if I was right, I didn't ignore anything, because I addressed it the very first post you quoted to begin this discussion. So what are you trying to say?

 

Anyways

 

I don't disagree with your argument conceptually -- like I said before, I believe Hahn has been wise in the past about walking away from valuable pieces when the price reaches a point that it erodes the value. Where I disagree is that the only option to replacing Avi was "a dumb contract." The reason I'm getting so worked up about RF specifically is because NONE of the contracts or trades that we've seen come to completion are "dumb." To the contrary they've all been "about right" at worst and "team-friendly" at best. The players that remain, according to rumor, are about to sign team-friendly deals as well.

 

I go back to the Jose Abreu signing in my head. Before that, the biggest free agent contract in team history was Albert Belle's 5/55 in the late 90's -- meaning there was essentially NO precedent for the White Sox to open up the books for Abreu, and so it was a little difficult to believe it would happen. But it just made SO much sense as a baseball move. The team was forced into a "rebuild" but wanted it to go quickly, the team had practically no big money on the books, and the team's franchise icon at first (Konerko) was on his way out. The fit was ideal; more ideal that it was for any other team, and so it made sense to break the bank. And they did.

 

That move made me confident that the front office was willing to buck its own "party line" when it made sense to do so, which is all anyone can really ask. I'm not going to re-list the reasons for the hundredth time, but buying a corner OF in this soft market made exactly the same kind of sense that the Abreu deal did. It's disappointing to me because the failure to make this move means either (1) I've overstated ownership's willingness to spend big money, even when it makes sense, (2) Hahn overplayed his negotiating hand, and simply dropped the ball at his favorite game, or (3) the White Sox still somehow believe in giving a large number of important ABs to Avisail Garcia, which, in my opinion, indicates a lack of understanding about their own ability to develop players that have tool but no semblance of baseball skills. I'd rather the explanation be #2, because if the dude just made a mistake, it's at least not indicative of a long-term issue.

 

But in any case, it's a failure -- and it's one that carries a relatively good chance of having a substantial negative impact on the 2016 season. If they get Fowler or Jackson, it's a moot point. If Avi breaks out, this will look shrewd somehow. But those things are more likely NOT to happen than they are to happen, at this point, and so it worries me.

 

I feel you. I think I took some of my frustration out on my replies to you because all I have heard for weeks is what a failure this offseason was and how Rick Hahn isn't even trying, etc. and you happened to be the one giving me responses. I respect your opinion on what you think Hahn should have done, I just don't think it's that simple. I think leaks from agents and other organizations made Sox fans feel like a deal might have been closer to materializing that it actually was for one of the big 3. Cespedes is the only one that I think we could have persuaded with enough money, but he wanted to stay with the Mets an they gave him enough to satisfy him. I still think a trade is the best route to us getting an OFer.

[Eminor3rd]

I feel you. I think I took some of my frustration out on my replies to you because all I have heard for weeks is what a failure this offseason was and how Rick Hahn isn't even trying, etc. and you happened to be the one giving me responses. I respect your opinion on what you think Hahn should have done, I just don't think it's that simple. I think leaks from agents and other organizations made Sox fans feel like a deal might have been closer to materializing that it actually was for one of the big 3. Cespedes is the only one that I think we could have persuaded with enough money, but he wanted to stay with the Mets an they gave him enough to satisfy him. I still think a trade is the best route to us getting an OFer.

 

Yeah, I think Dick Allen broke down each contract for the "big three" OFers that have signed so far and looked at why each of them probably had their own unique obstacles for the White Sox. And I think if I can believe that, and give Hahn the benefit of the doubt. But man, it's going to hurt if Fowler signs for 2/24 with Baltimore.

 

As far as trades go, I'm just struggling to find good candidates that are left. The Rays make the most sense, but I think trading with the Rays is hard. I was listening to a Dave Cameron podcast the other day, and he was saying how his friends in front offices told him that the Rays will basically ONLY make a trade if they feel like they've clearly won the deal. Which, there can obviously be differences in talent valuation that make it so the other team likes the deal, but he said it makes execs second guess themselves and wonder what they're missing when the Rays feel like they're ready to move. Beyond that, I feel like the Dodgers route has been played out; if there was a deal there, it would have been made. Who else has spare depth to move? I guess the Reds, though I'm not sure I believe in Jay Bruce at this point.

[iamshack]

Gordon was not leaving KC and Upton wouldn't even hear the Sox out. Why don't people understand this?

 

Hahn has no plan. He does not want to improve the team.

This isn't the argument I was making. Slow down and read a bit more carefully, cowboy.

Edited February 23, 2016 by iamshack

[kevo880]

Yeah, I think Dick Allen broke down each contract for the "big three" OFers that have signed so far and looked at why each of them probably had their own unique obstacles for the White Sox. And I think if I can believe that, and give Hahn the benefit of the doubt. But man, it's going to hurt if Fowler signs for 2/24 with Baltimore.

 

As far as trades go, I'm just struggling to find good candidates that are left. The Rays make the most sense, but I think trading with the Rays is hard. I was listening to a Dave Cameron podcast the other day, and he was saying how his friends in front offices told him that the Rays will basically ONLY make a trade if they feel like they've clearly won the deal. Which, there can obviously be differences in talent valuation that make it so the other team likes the deal, but he said it makes execs second guess themselves and wonder what they're missing when the Rays feel like they're ready to move. Beyond that, I feel like the Dodgers route has been played out; if there was a deal there, it would have been made. Who else has spare depth to move? I guess the Reds, though I'm not sure I believe in Jay Bruce at this point.

 

I agree that if Fowler signs for that contract then I will be annoyed, but I would hope it's because there is a backup plan that they like better.

 

That's a good point on how the Rays only make trades if they feel they've clearly won the trade. It seems that's how they have been for years. I have a feeling if we do acquire an OFer in a trade it will be someone that nobody is talking about.

[SCCWS]

I agree that if Fowler signs for that contract then I will be annoyed, but I would hope it's because there is a backup plan that they like better.

 

That's a good point on how the Rays only make trades if they feel they've clearly won the trade. It seems that's how they have been for years. I have a feeling if we do acquire an OFer in a trade it will be someone that nobody is talking about.

 

The Rays have been one of the more active teams to trade in baseball. They have had no trouble finding trade partners.

 

Since executive VP Andrew Friedman took over after the 2005 season, the Rays have not been shy about trading pitchers, shipping out 26 in various deals.

 

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/ra...itchers/2156084

[ChiSox59]

The Rays have been one of the more active teams to trade in baseball. They have had no trouble finding trade partners.

 

Since executive VP Andrew Friedman took over after the 2005 season, the Rays have not been shy about trading pitchers, shipping out 26 in various deals.

 

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/ra...itchers/2156084

 

Friedman is no longer employed by the Rays.

[kevo880]

The Rays have been one of the more active teams to trade in baseball. They have had no trouble finding trade partners.

 

Since executive VP Andrew Friedman took over after the 2005 season, the Rays have not been shy about trading pitchers, shipping out 26 in various deals.

 

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/ra...itchers/2156084

 

I wasn't saying they won't make trades. Also the way I phrased that was just pointing out the obvious. All teams only make trades when they feel they have clearly wont he trade so just ignore that post. Not sure what I was trying to get at.

[Eminor3rd]

I wasn't saying they won't make trades. Also the way I phrased that was just pointing out the obvious. All teams only make trades when they feel they have clearly wont he trade so just ignore that post. Not sure what I was trying to get at.

 

I think Cameron's point was that a lot of teams will make trades that seem like roughly even exchanges of value, but meet the team's needs more. For example, Dombrowski gave up a ton for Kimbrel -- I highly doubt he thinks he fleeced the Padres, he probably just feels he traded from prospect depth to get a piece that he needed more than San Diego did. Cameron was saying that the Rays don't do that; they've got internal player valuation models that give them dollar-like assessments of asset value, and they only make trades if those models show them coming out way ahead.