The battle for shortstop - applying some odds

[Vance Law]

Something similar to a platoon would make sense. Giving Rollins a good amount of days off to hopefully increase his productivity and hide Saladino against righties a bit. That is unless Saladino is required in another sort of platoon situation, perhaps playing 2B and pushing Lawrie to DH against lefties. Depends on the final makeup of the roster.

[SCCWS]

Yep, he really should be trade bait. Not many options for him to break into the infield rotation the next 2 years.

 

 

I have no idea why the writer put 80% chance of Sanchez being the utility player. That should only occur if Rollins is released which he didn't assume with his starting SS projection. I think Sanchez goes back to minors for one more year w hope of his offense improving or worse case building some trade value.

Edited February 28, 2016 by SCCWS

[DashFan]

There does not seem to be any love whatsoever for Sanchez's bat. He did not inspire a lot of confidence last year, granted. But maybe we should look at the following:

 

a) He is all of 23 years old, has always played far above his age differential in the minors, and only has 500 AB's in MLB;

 

b) Last year he did hit .252 with a .687 OPS in the second half. Granted, he died in September, but so did most of the team.

 

c) His minor league line, starting when he was just 17, is .288, with an OBP of .354 and an OPS of .723.

 

d) With that outstanding defense - I have a hard time recalling anyone who gets rid of the ball quicker on the double play - and the fact that he is a switch hitter, there sure seems to be more potential value than many people on this board seem to think he has.

 

 

Just one man's opinion ...

 

Could not agree more.

 

[Vance Law]

I have no idea why the writer put 80% chance of Sanchez being the utility player. That should only occur if Rollins is released which he didn't assume with his starting SS projection. I think Sanchez goes back to minors for one more year w hope of his offense improving or worse case building some trade value.

 

He'll go to AAA if he's not traded because there's no room for him. But him coming up as in injury replacement isn't that unlikely considering 37 year old Rollins and somewhat injury prone Lawrie. He'd also come up if Frazier or Saladino got hurt.

 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

There does not seem to be any love whatsoever for Sanchez's bat. He did not inspire a lot of confidence last year, granted. But maybe we should look at the following:

 

a) He is all of 23 years old, has always played far above his age differential in the minors, and only has 500 AB's in MLB;

 

b) Last year he did hit .252 with a .687 OPS in the second half. Granted, he died in September, but so did most of the team.

 

c) His minor league line, starting when he was just 17, is .288, with an OBP of .354 and an OPS of .723.

 

d) With that outstanding defense - I have a hard time recalling anyone who gets rid of the ball quicker on the double play - and the fact that he is a switch hitter, there sure seems to be more potential value than many people on this board seem to think he has.

 

 

Just one man's opinion ...

 

I'm not denying any of that - those are all excellent points. I still think Saladino fits much better into a utility IF roll, especially in the short term. Sanchez is untested at 3B and there were doubts when he was coming up that he could not stick at SS due to arm strength. You do know Saladino's career minor league OBP is .351 and his OPS is .746? The argument for either is really a coin flip at this point.

[NorthSideSox72]

I have no idea why the writer put 80% chance of Sanchez being the utility player. That should only occur if Rollins is released which he didn't assume with his starting SS projection. I think Sanchez goes back to minors for one more year w hope of his offense improving or worse case building some trade value.

There are likely 4 bench spots. One goes to a catcher, the other a 4th OF (almost assuredly JB Shuck). That leaves two open utility roles. Sanchez won't likely win the starting SS job, but if you add up the chances of them carrying 2 UTIL INF's (which is substantial) plus the chance one of Saladino or Rollins is gone and/or hurt (which are smaller but possible), I'd say 80% is a good number. That was my approach, anyway.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

There are likely 4 bench spots. One goes to a catcher, the other a 4th OF (almost assuredly JB Shuck). That leaves two open utility roles. Sanchez won't likely win the starting SS job, but if you add up the chances of them carrying 2 UTIL INF's (which is substantial) plus the chance one of Saladino or Rollins is gone and/or hurt (which are smaller but possible), I'd say 80% is a good number. That was my approach, anyway.

I don't see them carying two utility IFs. There is a much greater need to have a guy who can platoon with LaRoche than two guys who can cover the entire IF. Right now, I'd go with Saladino, Schuck, & Sands or Olt, but I'm still expecting another OF to be added which would force Avi into that last spot. I fully expect Sanchez to begin the season in AAA if he's not traded beforehand.

Edited February 28, 2016 by Chicago White Sox

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't see them carying two utility IFs. There is a much greater need to have a guy who can platoon with LaRoche than two guys who can cover the entire IF. Right now, I'd go with Saladino, Schuck, & Sands or Olt, but I'm still expecting another OF to be added which would force Avi into that last spot. I fully expect Sanchez to begin the season in AAA if he's not traded beforehand.

Honestly I think Sanchez will hit as well as Sands or Olt would (neither of whom I feel offer much value), plus Sanchez gives you more defensive flexibility and speed as a PR. I'd rather have Sanchez if that's the competition.

 

[GreenSox]

I don't see Olt at all. He plays one position (and Saladino have Sanchez can play that position as well) and hasn't hit very well. I could see Sanchez as he showed improvement with the stick. But it would help to see him play other positions. I wonder if you can play the outfield some. I know he doesn't have the arm but he's reasonably athletic . The greatest need for that spot is someone who can hit a little bit as insurance/cover for Abby, Laroche, or Melky.

 

In fact it looks to be like charlotte's going to have a logjam at third.

Edited February 29, 2016 by GreenSox

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't see Olt at all. He plays one position (and Saladino have Sanchez can play that position as well) and hasn't hit very well. I could see Sanchez as he showed improvement with the stick. But it would help to see him play other positions. I wonder if you can play the outfield some. I know he doesn't have the arm but he's reasonably athletic . The greatest need for that spot is someone who can hit a little bit as insurance/cover for Abby, Laroche, or Melky.

 

In fact it looks to be like charlotte's going to have a logjam at third.

Saladino has played some outfield, but that's also where he tore his UCL so I'm not sure the Sox would want him out there again.

 

And yeah, the Charlotte stack for 3B/1B/DH is quite a thing: Davidson, Ishikawa, Olt, Delmonico, probably Hayes. My best guess is that Olt isn't even with the Sox come April, and one of Delmonico or Hayes will stay in AA. In terms of readiness I think Delmonico is best to keep back in AA. So you'd have Davidson at third, with Ishikawa and Hayes at 1B and DH. Plus Ishikawa can also play some OF.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I don't see Olt at all. He plays one position (and Saladino have Sanchez can play that position as well) and hasn't hit very well. I could see Sanchez as he showed improvement with the stick. But it would help to see him play other positions. I wonder if you can play the outfield some. I know he doesn't have the arm but he's reasonably athletic . The greatest need for that spot is someone who can hit a little bit as insurance/cover for Abby, Laroche, or Melky.

 

In fact it looks to be like charlotte's going to have a logjam at third.

 

Olt might as well get to apartment shopping in Charlotte.

[winninguglyin83]

Rollins -- 65 percent. Price is right. They like having a veteran. And they're hoping he has a few months in the tank left.

 

Saladino -- 25 percent. Sox seem to be genuinely high on his glove. If Rollins bombs in spring training, he's the guy.

 

Sanchez -- 9 percent. This might be high, considering I haven't heard anybody in the organization say a single positive word about hism since the end of last season.

 

Anderson -- 1 percent. If he's there, he has a chance. But not much.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Saladino has played some outfield, but that's also where he tore his UCL so I'm not sure the Sox would want him out there again.

 

And yeah, the Charlotte stack for 3B/1B/DH is quite a thing: Davidson, Ishikawa, Olt, Delmonico, probably Hayes. My best guess is that Olt isn't even with the Sox come April, and one of Delmonico or Hayes will stay in AA. In terms of readiness I think Delmonico is best to keep back in AA. So you'd have Davidson at third, with Ishikawa and Hayes at 1B and DH. Plus Ishikawa can also play some OF.

 

I think there's a real possibility both Olt and Davidson may find themselves in new organizations come April 1st. Both are out of minor league options. I think we could see some teams be willing to take a flyer on either of them if the star aligned correctly. Personally I think at least one of them is going to pass, but you never know...

[GreenSox]

I think there's a real possibility both Olt and Davidson may find themselves in new organizations come April 1st. Both are out of minor league options. I think we could see some teams be willing to take a flyer on either of them if the star aligned correctly. Personally I think at least one of them is going to pass, but you never know...

They can be sent down if they stay on the 40 right?

[oldsox]

There are likely 4 bench spots. One goes to a catcher, the other a 4th OF (almost assuredly JB Shuck). That leaves two open utility roles. Sanchez won't likely win the starting SS job, but if you add up the chances of them carrying 2 UTIL INF's (which is substantial) plus the chance one of Saladino or Rollins is gone and/or hurt (which are smaller but possible), I'd say 80% is a good number. That was my approach, anyway.

I think 13 pitchers is one waaay too many.

[Y2Jimmy0]

So...just something I was pondering over last night. Let's just hypothetically say that Rollins were to win the SS position and let's focus on defense, position by position.

 

OF - same as last year.

1b - same as last year

2b - Lawrie - he's an upgrade over Johnson but he's a downgrade compared to Sanchez.

SS - Rollins - he was a downgrade defensively from Alexei in 2015, both UZR and DRS agree, and Alexei wasn't that great last year.

3b - Saladino was excellent there and Beckham was ok, Gillaspie was terrible. Frazier is an upgrade compared to the last 2 but a downgrade compared to Saladino.

C - upgrade compared to both as long as they stay healthy.

 

So overall compared to at least the 2nd half of last year, the defense around the infield is worse and the OF is the same. That's a pretty poor defensive lineup in the IF with no really strong anchor anywhere. It's better than what we started with in April/May of last year, but unless someone improves over last year, not by much.

 

 

I agree that the defense is a concern but bad defense isn't why they lost last year. They had one of the worst offenses off all time and they didn't improve as a team once Saladino, Sanchez, and Thompson were on defense either. Hitting covers up a lot.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I think 13 pitchers is one waaay too many.

 

 

It's not 13 it's the American League. 5 starters, 7 relievers, 8 position players, DH, and 4 bench guys.

[cabiness42]

They can be sent down if they stay on the 40 right?

 

One thing I always struggle to find is a definitive list of who does and doesn't have minor league options left, but I believe that Davidson can be sent down but Olt can't.

[NorthSideSox72]

They can be sent down if they stay on the 40 right?

Each year you are on the 40-man roster but spend time in the minors, you burn an option year. Davidson used options in 2013, 2014 and 2015. He's out of options. Olt is too.

 

I agree with an earlier post that said if they send Olt and Davidson through waivers, probably one makes it through. Maybe both do, in fact.

 

[cabiness42]

Each year you are on the 40-man roster but spend time in the minors, you burn an option year. Davidson used options in 2013, 2014 and 2015. He's out of options. Olt is too.

 

I agree with an earlier post that said if they send Olt and Davidson through waivers, probably one makes it through. Maybe both do, in fact.

 

From what I'm looking at, Davidson didn't get added to Arizona's 40 until he was called up in August 2013, and stayed up the rest of the season, so that wouldn't count as an option year for him.

 

EDIT: I just found where Davidson got option back in 2013 after being called up, so yeah, he's out of options.

Edited March 1, 2016 by HickoryHuskers

[NorthSideSox72]

From what I'm looking at, Davidson didn't get added to Arizona's 40 until he was called up in August 2013, and stayed up the rest of the season, so that wouldn't count as an option year for him.

He was called up in August 2013, then sent back down later that same month. Then back to MLB again in September.

 

[cabiness42]

He was called up in August 2013, then sent back down later that same month. Then back to MLB again in September.

 

Yeah, I just corrected myself. That's some bizarre roster management by Arizona. Burning up a prospect's first option year by sending him down less than a week before rosters expand. I'd be pissed if the Sox did that.

[NorthSideSox72]

Yeah, I just corrected myself. That's some bizarre roster management by Arizona. Burning up a prospect's first option year by sending him down less than a week before rosters expand. I'd be pissed if the Sox did that.

Yeah I thought that too, unless maybe ARZ was in a playoff push and was all-in on that focus. But I don't think they were at that time.

 

[shysocks]

I agree that the defense is a concern but bad defense isn't why they lost last year. They had one of the worst offenses off all time and they didn't improve as a team once Saladino, Sanchez, and Thompson were on defense either. Hitting covers up a lot.

I can respect the sentiment behind this, specifically that great hitting can patch over mediocre defense, like with the Jays last year.

 

But on what are you basing this "one of the worst offenses of all time" comment? They put up an 86 wRC+, which is bad but certainly not in all-time company. I'm seeing it at 103rd worst in the last 30 years.

 

The offense's WAR was 3.1, which IS all-time terrible, but that's because not only could they not score, but they couldn't field. They lost plenty of games because of that too, and Balta was right, they've done little to improve it.