Sox Project Among Worst in Wins LOST to Garbage Players

[Eminor3rd]

http://neifi.co/the-marlins-depth-and-meas...ength/#more-261

 

Using NEIFI’s projections we calculated, for each player on each team’s depth chart, his wins below the halfway point between replacement level and average (e.g. for position players, average is .0036 WAR/PA—2.16 WAR per 600 PA, so we calculated wins below the .0018 WAR/PA baseline, zeroing out everyone who clears the baseline of course). Add up these numbers and we get a measure of the number of wins each team is losing due to the presence of garbage on the roster. To restate; we’re measuring the number of wins each team would gain if they replaced all the talent on their roster beneath this threshold—the halfway point between a lg-avg player and a replacement level player—with talent of that caliber. If they just had fairly strong bench players replacing the expected playing time of all players who fell beneath that level, whether the players being replaced are starters or bench players themselves.

 

AL Central:

CLE 0.40

MIN 1.85

KC 2.63

DET 2.68

CHA 4.72

 

Again, not surprising. The White Sox, like the Orioles, have a long legacy of this sort of nonsense. And this is a sort of hidden place in which the Indians are good. Also, the clear majority of the Twins’ score here (1.21 of the 1.85) is accounted for by Kurt Suzuki, who is the single most toxic presence on any big league roster today. Can’t frame, can’t throw, can’t hit. This guy has a job how, exactly?

 

Essentially, they project the Sox to lose nearly 5 wins this year simply by allowing black holes to exist, rather than replace them with 1 WAR-ish guys. This is the third worst figure in the MLB, behind only the Phillies and Braves. It's the worst figure in the AL by more than an entire win.

 

I think the premise is a little flawed, because I think that 1 WAR-ish guys are harder/more costly to acquire than everyone seems to assume. But this illustrates the frustration many of us are expressing related to ignoring the corner OF spot despite the veritable cornucopia of available options at all price points. This also makes me cringe when i think about Adam LaRoche. He's gotta bounce back a bit, right? Right?

[OmarComing25]

I cringe to think about what that number was last year.

[Y2Jimmy0]

This was way worse last year. Garcia is really the only "black hole" in the lineup now. LaRoche is used vs just RHP has to be better and I don't expect Melky to be terrible. That being said, if LaRoche and Melky are terrible, the White Sox will probably finish in 5th again.

[greg775]

That is what's been difficult watching the Sox the last several years. All the lousy players, the black holes.

Beckham, Gillaspie, LaRoche, Flowers (as much as I loved him I concede he wasn't much), Viciedo, so many bad ballplayers getting a ton of at bats as well as fielding opps. Good thread.

[Hatchetman]

This was way worse last year. Garcia is really the only "black hole" in the lineup now. LaRoche is used vs just RHP has to be better and I don't expect Melky to be terrible. That being said, if LaRoche and Melky are terrible, the White Sox will probably finish in 5th again.

 

I would pencil SS in as a black hole until proven otherwise.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I would pencil SS in as a black hole until proven otherwise.

 

 

It should above replacement level though and it was not last year. Rollins was pretty bad last season and he was still better than Alexei Ramirez

[Eminor3rd]

This was way worse last year. Garcia is really the only "black hole" in the lineup now. LaRoche is used vs just RHP has to be better and I don't expect Melky to be terrible. That being said, if LaRoche and Melky are terrible, the White Sox will probably finish in 5th again.

 

As someone pointed out in the OF thread, adding even a reasonably okay full-time outfielder could have a surprisingly wide impact, as it gives LaRoche a platoon partner in Avi, in addition to removing Avi from full-time duty.

 

Yeah, I think I'm finally totally on-board with adding Austin Jackson. If they do that, they'll have (technically) "addressed" every position of need from 2015.