Our Defense is Still Bad

[Eminor3rd]

ZiPS came out yesterday, and August f**erstrom used it to point out how incredibly bad our OF defense looks, which reminded me that we didn't address it at all. Overall, we project to be 29th out of 30.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/previewing-...-team-defenses/

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Eaton; Below average

RF - Garcia; EXTRA BAD

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

With Austin Jackson somehow still out there, and this team hurt so much by lacking what he does best, I just... I just can't believe this is what the lineup looks like. I want to believe that they're going to get this done. I mean, it's not like giving Jackson a two or three year deal is going to block ANYTHING coming up in the system, and what a difference it could make! The defense could instead look like (by the way, those assessments are my own; the projections actually make it look worse):

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Jackson; Good!

RF - Eaton; Probably average or above

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

Crazy how much better that looks. Defense would still be the weakness of the team, but that group above is merely "below average." That feels like a state that may not sink the team.

 

I really apologize for being a downer lately. You guys know it's not usually how I am. But I just don't GET this. The only explanation is that ownership is being cheap, and I just keep glancing to the corner of my room and seeing my pitchfork there, gleaming dangerously in the wan sunlight that filters through my half-drawn curtains. And just... why is this happening?

[cabiness42]

ZiPS came out yesterday, and August f**erstrom used it to point out how incredibly bad our OF defense looks, which reminded me that we didn't address it at all. Overall, we project to be 29th out of 30.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/previewing-...-team-defenses/

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Eaton; Below average

RF - Garcia; EXTRA BAD

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

With Austin Jackson somehow still out there, and this team hurt so much by lacking what he does best, I just... I just can't believe this is what the lineup looks like. I want to believe that they're going to get this done. I mean, it's not like giving Jackson a two or three year deal is going to block ANYTHING coming up in the system, and what a difference it could make! The defense could instead look like (by the way, those assessments are my own; the projections actually make it look worse):

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Jackson; Good!

RF - Eaton; Probably average or above

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

Crazy how much better that looks. Defense would still be the weakness of the team, but that group above is merely "below average." That feels like a state that may not sink the team.

 

I really apologize for being a downer lately. You guys know it's not usually how I am. But I just don't GET this. The only explanation is that ownership is being cheap, and I just keep glancing to the corner of my room and seeing my pitchfork there, gleaming dangerously in the wan sunlight that filters through my half-drawn curtains. And just... why is this happening?

 

That is NEVER the only explanation.

[shysocks]

Hawk said we had one of the best defensive outfields last year so don't worry about it.

[Eminor3rd]

That is NEVER the only explanation.

 

Okay. I'll try again. Here's what I can come up with:

 

1. Being cheap

2. Extremely poor talent evaluation (Avi will be fine!)

3. Blackmail? Dissention in contract talks?

4. Hidden injury/other reason to believe player isn't as good as before.

 

Only #4 makes the situation justifiable. But then it also makes the failure to acquire an alternative LESS justifiable.

 

I don't want to feel this way, help me.

[Bob Sacamano]

ZiPS came out yesterday, and August f**erstrom used it to point out how incredibly bad our OF defense looks, which reminded me that we didn't address it at all. Overall, we project to be 29th out of 30.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/previewing-...-team-defenses/

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Eaton; Below average

RF - Garcia; EXTRA BAD

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

With Austin Jackson somehow still out there, and this team hurt so much by lacking what he does best, I just... I just can't believe this is what the lineup looks like. I want to believe that they're going to get this done. I mean, it's not like giving Jackson a two or three year deal is going to block ANYTHING coming up in the system, and what a difference it could make! The defense could instead look like (by the way, those assessments are my own; the projections actually make it look worse):

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Jackson; Good!

RF - Eaton; Probably average or above

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

Crazy how much better that looks. Defense would still be the weakness of the team, but that group above is merely "below average." That feels like a state that may not sink the team.

 

I really apologize for being a downer lately. You guys know it's not usually how I am. But I just don't GET this. The only explanation is that ownership is being cheap, and I just keep glancing to the corner of my room and seeing my pitchfork there, gleaming dangerously in the wan sunlight that filters through my half-drawn curtains. And just... why is this happening?

 

Signing Jackson to play center potentially upgrades 3 spots (Most likely 2).

[bmags]

Yeah, Lawrie at 2b scares me.

[shysocks]

I don't want to feel this way, help me.

I am on the ledge with you.

 

I was very hesitant after the Frazier trade because like many, I saw the Sox as a .500 team. I allowed myself to get sucked into the Gordon and Cespedes stuff, but sometime a few weeks ago I became resigned that Avi was going to be our starting right fielder. I think they intended to go big. And I don't want to be a broken record, but I'm about to be. They either misjudged the market or their capacity to take advantage of it. Same end result - terrible outfield.

 

Hahn says he still expects to add before Opening Day, but why should I believe him? I don't expect us to sign Austin Jackson. I don't expect a meaningful trade to occur. I expect to watch a .500 team that needs a lot to go right to be good.

 

Did that help?

[Hatchetman]

I don't want to feel this way, help me.

 

That feeling comes with being a Sox fan. There is no cure, but it is not terminal.

[Eminor3rd]

I am on the ledge with you.

 

I was very hesitant after the Frazier trade because like many, I saw the Sox as a .500 team. I allowed myself to get sucked into the Gordon and Cespedes stuff, but sometime a few weeks ago I became resigned that Avi was going to be our starting right fielder. I think they intended to go big. And I don't want to be a broken record, but I'm about to be. They either misjudged the market or their capacity to take advantage of it. Same end result - terrible outfield.

 

Hahn says he still expects to add before Opening Day, but why should I believe him? I don't expect us to sign Austin Jackson. I don't expect a meaningful trade to occur. I expect to watch a .500 team that needs a lot to go right to be good.

 

Did that help?

 

The most depressing thing he said, IMO, was a tidbit last week that didn't seem to jump out to anyone -- when talking about attendance, he said something like "the payroll figure is going to stay the same, so it didn't hurt us there." That, if true, means they do not intend to sign anyone of significance. Which, coupled with the fact that they added literally zero significant free agent salary this year, makes me think that the "big fish" were only ever going to be limited exceptions, and that Hahn was not actually working with much of any budget room to begin with. Frazier's salary is significant, but it was offset by losing Samardzija's. The catcher platoon adds up, but it's less than what they lost in Alexei.

 

The directive of "turn your 75 win team into a contender without adding any net salary whatsoever" just does not seem like a sound line of thought to me.

[bmags]

The most depressing thing he said, IMO, was a tidbit last week that didn't seem to jump out to anyone -- when talking about attendance, he said something like "the payroll figure is going to stay the same, so it didn't hurt us there." That, if true, means they do not intend to sign anyone of significance. Which, coupled with the fact that they added literally zero significant free agent salary this year, makes me think that the "big fish" were only ever going to be limited exceptions, and that Hahn was not actually working with much of any budget room to begin with. Frazier's salary is significant, but it was offset by losing Samardzija's. The catcher platoon adds up, but it's less than what they lost in Alexei.

The directive of "turn your 75 win team into a contender without adding any net salary whatsoever" just does not seem like a sound line of thought to me.

 

Right. I was fooled, but was right all along. I still think this team is much faster to a playoff birth had we sold this offseason than bought.

[ChiSox59]

I hope Lawrie turns out to be better than "BAD" at 2B. I think he has it in him to be average to slightly above average with the glove. He was considered a great defensive 3B early in his career.

[Eminor3rd]

I hope Lawrie turns out to be better than "BAD" at 2B. I think he has it in him to be average to slightly above average with the glove. He was considered a great defensive 3B early in his career.

 

That is, indeed, a "wild card" that seems to have a chance to turn out better than expected, and it would make a huge difference to the infield.

[bmags]

My blue jays fan friend was shocked when we were moving lawrie off third. He said the best parts about him were quick reactions and his arm. But I don't know how that plays at 2nd with the needed range.

[chetkincaid]

Wait... Brett Lawrie isn't a good at 2nd base????

[gosoxgo2005]

That is, indeed, a "wild card" that seems to have a chance to turn out better than expected, and it would make a huge difference to the infield.

 

Abreu actually had +1 DRS last year (was -11 in 2014) and improved his UZR and UZR/150 a bit. If he slightly improves again, he is completely average at 1b, which is just fine, IMO.

Edited March 1, 2016 by gosoxgo2005

[LittleHurt05]

Yeah, Lawrie at 2b scares me.

 

Really? I had been under the impression that he was OK defensively. That's a bummer.

[BlackSox13]

I hope Lawrie turns out to be better than "BAD" at 2B. I think he has it in him to be average to slightly above average with the glove. He was considered a great defensive 3B early in his career.

Agreed and in defense of Lawrie, Oakland did bounce him around a bit so the Sox keeping Lawrie at 2B should allow him to become better, to some degree. I think Lawrie has enough quickness to play the position and more than enough arm strength so there's potential for growth at the position. I watched a few highlights of Lawrie last season in Oakland and showed the ability to make some nice plays at 2nd. I really believe the IF defense is going to be good overall.

 

As for the OF, I'm with Eminor. No matter how hard I try, I just cannot fool myself into thinking the OF defense will improve without another addition. I try not to be pessimistic about the overall team but the OF defense is a very deep and dark rabbit hole. The optimist in me still believes Hahn will add, hopefully that comes true.

[Balta1701]

ZiPS came out yesterday, and August f**erstrom used it to point out how incredibly bad our OF defense looks, which reminded me that we didn't address it at all. Overall, we project to be 29th out of 30.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/previewing-...-team-defenses/

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Eaton; Below average

RF - Garcia; EXTRA BAD

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

With Austin Jackson somehow still out there, and this team hurt so much by lacking what he does best, I just... I just can't believe this is what the lineup looks like. I want to believe that they're going to get this done. I mean, it's not like giving Jackson a two or three year deal is going to block ANYTHING coming up in the system, and what a difference it could make! The defense could instead look like (by the way, those assessments are my own; the projections actually make it look worse):

 

LF - Melky; BAD

CF - Jackson; Good!

RF - Eaton; Probably average or above

1B - Abreu; BAD

2B - Lawrie; BAD

SS - Saladino; Good!

3B - Frazier; Good!

C - Avila/Navarro; Solid and improved.

 

Crazy how much better that looks. Defense would still be the weakness of the team, but that group above is merely "below average." That feels like a state that may not sink the team.

 

I really apologize for being a downer lately. You guys know it's not usually how I am. But I just don't GET this. The only explanation is that ownership is being cheap, and I just keep glancing to the corner of my room and seeing my pitchfork there, gleaming dangerously in the wan sunlight that filters through my half-drawn curtains. And just... why is this happening?

I know it already looks bad...but it's actually worse. Note that Saladino is one of our only 3 good defensive positions and in the other thread, most people guessed that Jimmy Rollins had an 80% chance of emerging as the starter and probably would slot in for 100 games. That takes that position from good to bad even if Saladino is a defensive replacement.

[LDF]

Okay. I'll try again. Here's what I can come up with:

 

1. Being cheap

2. Extremely poor talent evaluation (Avi will be fine!)

3. Blackmail? Dissention in contract talks?

4. Hidden injury/other reason to believe player isn't as good as before.

 

Only #4 makes the situation justifiable. But then it also makes the failure to acquire an alternative LESS justifiable.

 

I don't want to feel this way, help me.

 

i am really resisting my posting anything on this thread, but i will agree with this post, esp #1 and 2

[southsideirish71]

Defense is something that this organization needs to do a better job with overall. Defense is something that requires lots and lots of reps, proper evaluation at the minor league level and a work ethic by the individual. You don't have every amazing play, just make the plays you should. Our infield defense can be good. It really requires lots of work and buy in by the individuals.

 

Right now Tim Anderson should be getting as many ground balls hit at him as there are hours in the day. He is athletic enough to be good fielder.

[LDF]

Agreed and in defense of Lawrie, Oakland did bounce him around a bit so the Sox keeping Lawrie at 2B should allow him to become better, to some degree. I think Lawrie has enough quickness to play the position and more than enough arm strength so there's potential for growth at the position. I watched a few highlights of Lawrie last season in Oakland and showed the ability to make some nice plays at 2nd. I really believe the IF defense is going to be good overall.

 

As for the OF, I'm with Eminor. No matter how hard I try, I just cannot fool myself into thinking the OF defense will improve without another addition. I try not to be pessimistic about the overall team but the OF defense is a very deep and dark rabbit hole. The optimist in me still believes Hahn will add, hopefully that comes true.

 

no matter what, he can't be worst than MJ last yr, defensively

[Balta1701]

no matter what, he can't be worst than MJ last yr, defensively

however, Micah only played there for ~2 months. He can absolutely be a lot worse than Sanchez, and frankly he should be expected to be a defensive downgrade from Sanchez because Sanchez was really good.

[Dunt]

Going to have to echo that I dont think Lawrie's defense will be a problem. At worst, I see him being an average defender at 2B. I certainly dont see him being a bad defender though. That outfield defense though, yikes. Really thought the FO was smarter than rolling that out again.

[Baron]

You know it's bad when Melky is your best defender in the OF. I'm not expecting Eaton to be nearly as bad as last year....but he's going to have to take a huge leap to even out his ratings. The good news is his year previous to that one was nothing like it. So there's some hope he can bounce back. Avi however there's no reason to expect him getting anywhere close to passable.

[Panerista]

Bad defense is ingrained in our culture.

 

You can only hide so much bad defense.