Delegate Math and the GOP

[NorthSideSox72]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/electi...legate-targets/

 

 

538 has him 112% on track to win the nomination. Refresh if it gives you the Feb 29th version. It should be from this AM.

That's 112% of the curve they assigned based on what they think is his ideal path. It's actually much more complex than what I wrote up and interesting, but he is not 112% versus general numbers as a percentage. He is 112% compared to their anticipated curve. There is a crucial difference there.

 

As I've said, assuming Rubio and Crioz don't drop out, it's all about the big WTA states - Ohio and Florida mostly, but also California and a few others. If Kasich and Rubio can win their home states, Trump won't be the nominee. If Trump wins both, he will be. If he wins one, eh, depends on how other things go.

 

 

[bmags]

NS I think the disconnect between your view nad others, is that as the road to actual victory becomes more and more remote for Rubio/Cruz, their donation base dries up. People won't keep shelling out money for a lost cause, as Hillary Clinton saw in 2008. It takes money to go all the way to the convention, and they won't have it. So, yes, I think Trump is a foregone conclusion, because the forces that remove others from the race will start to be felt.

[caulfield12]

Bmags is right.

 

No way those numbers hold proportionally going forward. Rubio getting blown out in his home state and still staying in would hurt him for 2020 unless there's a new compelling development with Trump. Kasich has no valid reason to stay if he loses Ohio and even a small win leaves him at such a huge financial disadvantage for the rest of the race that donors aren't going to continue throwing money at a losing cause. Carson will be kicked off the debate stages and start to damage his brand to the point his advisors push him out...and he certainly won't spend his own money to stay in.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't quite know what Carson is doing, but he's essentially out of the race. He won't be attending the debate on Thursday and sees no path forward. Not sure what exactly that means and why he hasn't yet suspended his campaign, but that clearly is next.

[bmags]

I don't quite know what Carson is doing, but he's essentially out of the race. He won't be attending the debate on Thursday and sees no path forward. Not sure what exactly that means and why he hasn't yet suspended his campaign, but that clearly is next.

 

He needs to continue to con seniors out of their retirement money.

[Y2HH]

I don't quite know what Carson is doing, but he's essentially out of the race. He won't be attending the debate on Thursday and sees no path forward. Not sure what exactly that means and why he hasn't yet suspended his campaign, but that clearly is next.

 

I believe Carson did suspend his campaign today.

[NorthSideSox72]

NS I think the disconnect between your view nad others, is that as the road to actual victory becomes more and more remote for Rubio/Cruz, their donation base dries up. People won't keep shelling out money for a lost cause, as Hillary Clinton saw in 2008. It takes money to go all the way to the convention, and they won't have it. So, yes, I think Trump is a foregone conclusion, because the forces that remove others from the race will start to be felt.

 

Honestly, there is so much anger out there against Trump, as long as guys are winning delegates and potentially keeping Trump at bay, the money will keep coming. In my view anyway.

 

I don't quite know what Carson is doing, but he's essentially out of the race. He won't be attending the debate on Thursday and sees no path forward. Not sure what exactly that means and why he hasn't yet suspended his campaign, but that clearly is next.

 

Carson's voters (the few there are) probably go to Cruz and Trump, if I had to guess.

 

[bmags]

Honestly, there is so much anger out there against Trump, as long as guys are winning delegates and potentially keeping Trump at bay, the money will keep coming. In my view anyway.

 

I think probably more than if he were a different candidate, but about $120 million of republican donor money was lit on fire by the Jeb Bush campaign. A lot of those guys are probably tapped out.

[Balta1701]

I think probably more than if he were a different candidate, but about $120 million of republican donor money was lit on fire by the Jeb Bush campaign. A lot of those guys are probably tapped out.

Estimates last year generally came down suggesting the full Presidential campaign alone will run in the range of $4-$5 billion (half per candidate), with another $5 billion down the ballot, for a $10 billion election season.

 

I don't think you're quite getting how much money is available for these guys.

[Chisoxfn]

Estimates last year generally came down suggesting the full Presidential campaign alone will run in the range of $4-$5 billion (half per candidate), with another $5 billion down the ballot, for a $10 billion election season.

 

I don't think you're quite getting how much money is available for these guys.

Those numbers are absolutely appalling to me. I can't even fathom how that is truly necessary. Makes you understand why no one could possibly get into the white house without being controlled to at least some extent. The reality is it doesn't have to be that way as you should be able to leverage the media for free to get your attention. Would it be that wrong if we just switched to having extra debates, etc and a hard limit on how much each party can spend (and just outlawing super pac's)? If you have your point, make it in the debates and through free media appearances.

 

How in the hell could something cost that much. That is just absurd.

[Rex Kickass]

I think Florida really is the key here for whether Trump will get to a convention with a majority. Trump won 7 states, but he did underperform in a few interesting places according to the polls - Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Alaska, Vermont. If Rubio can surge into a win in his home state, I think the chance of a brokered convention is very very strong - especially if Kasich can close in Ohio.

 

In fact in the aggregate vote totals across the board over all states that have voted, Trump is at about 34% of votes cast. He has some states where he's performed very well - but the argument of a ceiling is still plausible. I think Trump is definitely the favorite, but unlike the Democratic fight - its not over yet. It could be in a couple weeks though.

[bmags]

Estimates last year generally came down suggesting the full Presidential campaign alone will run in the range of $4-$5 billion (half per candidate), with another $5 billion down the ballot, for a $10 billion election season.

 

I don't think you're quite getting how much money is available for these guys.

 

Not really, in the primary for a losing candidate, these guys are going to be relying on a much smaller pool of donors.

[Chisoxfn]

I think Florida really is the key here for whether Trump will get to a convention with a majority. Trump won 7 states, but he did underperform in a few interesting places according to the polls - Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Alaska, Vermont. If Rubio can surge into a win in his home state, I think the chance of a brokered convention is very very strong - especially if Kasich can close in Ohio.

 

In fact in the aggregate vote totals across the board over all states that have voted, Trump is at about 34% of votes cast. He has some states where he's performed very well - but the argument of a ceiling is still plausible. I think Trump is definitely the favorite, but unlike the Democratic fight - its not over yet. It could be in a couple weeks though.

Holy hell....blast from the past. How's everything going good sir?

[Chisoxfn]

I think Florida really is the key here for whether Trump will get to a convention with a majority. Trump won 7 states, but he did underperform in a few interesting places according to the polls - Virginia, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Alaska, Vermont. If Rubio can surge into a win in his home state, I think the chance of a brokered convention is very very strong - especially if Kasich can close in Ohio.

 

In fact in the aggregate vote totals across the board over all states that have voted, Trump is at about 34% of votes cast. He has some states where he's performed very well - but the argument of a ceiling is still plausible. I think Trump is definitely the favorite, but unlike the Democratic fight - its not over yet. It could be in a couple weeks though.

On your actual points, I definitely agree, if both Ohio and Florida don't go to Trump, than it means we are pretty much assured a brokered convention. If he wins at least one, I think he's still probably the guy, although that could change. It would appear Trump is more susceptible in the non south states (with exception to states closest to Cruz where Cruz has shown he can get Trump). The question I have is whether Kasich or Rubio is actually the better candidate for that play. I personally think it is Kasich because he seems to have a easier path to win his state vs. Florida, that said, if Rubio goes out in Florida, it would seem Trump would win in a landslide (as he already has a wide margin and I don't think the other candidates have spent much any time there so would have a really hard time pushing Florida so maybe the view truly is to allow this super pac to hit Trump hard and than back door let kasich focus on select states, Rubio on select states and Cruz will kind of do his thing and potentially win a few states as well)?

[cabiness42]

On your actual points, I definitely agree, if both Ohio and Florida don't go to Trump, than it means we are pretty much assured a brokered convention. If he wins at least one, I think he's still probably the guy, although that could change. It would appear Trump is more susceptible in the non south states (with exception to states closest to Cruz where Cruz has shown he can get Trump). The question I have is whether Kasich or Rubio is actually the better candidate for that play. I personally think it is Kasich because he seems to have a tougher road to climb to win his state vs. Florida, that said, if Rubio goes out in Florida, it would seem Trump would win in a landslide (as he already has a wide margin and I don't think the other candidates have spent much any time there so would have a really hard time pushing Florida so maybe the view truly is to allow this super pac to hit Trump hard and than back door let kasich focus on select states, Rubio on select states and Cruz will kind of do his thing and potentially win a few states as well)?

 

All the polling I've seen shows Kasich is far more likely to win Ohio than Rubio is to win Florida.

 

[Rex Kickass]

On your actual points, I definitely agree, if both Ohio and Florida don't go to Trump, than it means we are pretty much assured a brokered convention. If he wins at least one, I think he's still probably the guy, although that could change. It would appear Trump is more susceptible in the non south states (with exception to states closest to Cruz where Cruz has shown he can get Trump). The question I have is whether Kasich or Rubio is actually the better candidate for that play. I personally think it is Kasich because he seems to have a tougher road to climb to win his state vs. Florida, that said, if Rubio goes out in Florida, it would seem Trump would win in a landslide (as he already has a wide margin and I don't think the other candidates have spent much any time there so would have a really hard time pushing Florida so maybe the view truly is to allow this super pac to hit Trump hard and than back door let kasich focus on select states, Rubio on select states and Cruz will kind of do his thing and potentially win a few states as well)?

 

Remember Florida is more like the Northeast then Alabama or Mississippi electorally. Rubio has a good shot, but who knows what will happen. If Trump ends up with the nomination, I would not be surprised if a retread Republican runs a third party challenge to allow the GOP to lose the Presidency but save the house and Senate. Because if establishment gets behind Trump in the end, it will be only halfheartedly - and the machine won't work for Trump to win. It's actually the same way that Chris Christie became governor in 2009 believe it or not.

[Rex Kickass]

Holy hell....blast from the past. How's everything going good sir?

Things are things. I'm working endlessly, chilling out east, missing regular White Sox baseball. Hope things are good your way!

[Chisoxfn]

All the polling I've seen shows Kasich is far more likely to win Ohio than Rubio is to win Florida.

That is what I meant to say. My bad.

[Chisoxfn]

Remember Florida is more like the Northeast then Alabama or Mississippi electorally. Rubio has a good shot, but who knows what will happen. If Trump ends up with the nomination, I would not be surprised if a retread Republican runs a third party challenge to allow the GOP to lose the Presidency but save the house and Senate. Because if establishment gets behind Trump in the end, it will be only halfheartedly - and the machine won't work for Trump to win. It's actually the same way that Chris Christie became governor in 2009 believe it or not.

Fully agreed.

[Chisoxfn]

Things are things. I'm working endlessly, chilling out east, missing regular White Sox baseball. Hope things are good your way!

All is well on my end. Are you working any campaigns or still in the travel industry?

[Buehrle>Wood]

Those numbers are absolutely appalling to me. I can't even fathom how that is truly necessary. Makes you understand why no one could possibly get into the white house without being controlled to at least some extent. The reality is it doesn't have to be that way as you should be able to leverage the media for free to get your attention. Would it be that wrong if we just switched to having extra debates, etc and a hard limit on how much each party can spend (and just outlawing super pac's)? If you have your point, make it in the debates and through free media appearances.

 

How in the hell could something cost that much. That is just absurd.

And now you see some of the appeal of Trump. He's throwing in big money himself but at least it's his own and not 10 different mega corporations telling candidates exactly what to do and say.

 

You also see why the gop and media hate him so much. Can't control what you're not paying.

Edited March 3, 2016 by Buehrle>Wood

[Balta1701]

And now you see some of the appeal of Trump. He's throwing in big money himself but at least it's his own and not 10 different mega corporations telling candidates exactly what to do and say.

 

You also see why the gop and media hate him so much. Can't control what you're not paying.

Actually he hasn't spent all that much. The media loves him and gives him an ungodly amount of free airtime - more than basically every other candidate combined. He's making news networks and news shows money, but he's not buying ads. His total spending is so low that the smaller networks that were hoping for an ad revenue bonanza from this election are suddenly sending out official worried statements about their expected 2016 profitability.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Actually he hasn't spent all that much. The media loves him and gives him an ungodly amount of free airtime - more than basically every other candidate combined. He's making news networks and news shows money, but he's not buying ads. His total spending is so low that the smaller networks that were hoping for an ad revenue bonanza from this election are suddenly sending out official worried statements about their expected 2016 profitability.

I just meant it relatively. Even the least amount spent on a presidential campaign is still a lot. He gets free airtime yes, but very rarely is that for good reasons. The old slogan no publicity...may apply though. The ad stuff is hilarious. Good article.

Edited March 3, 2016 by Buehrle>Wood

[caulfield12]

Trump has only "loaned" himself (well, his campaign, actually) $17.5 million for the campaign so far...that's nothing, in the overall scheme of things.

 

By the way, that rise of American authoritarianism article (in Vox) is a "must read" for anyone interested in politics. With roughly 55% of the GOP in the "mad/angry/fearful" group (aka authoritarian or recently activated), there's just no way to stop Trump from getting the nomination.

 

It's basically the tradition since the 1960's of the Republican party being the party of "law and order" and "status quo/protecting traditional social values" that has led to today.

 

Ironically, it's the tendency of news networks like FOX fomenting fear and distrust of foreigners/illegal immigrants, gay couples, terrorism, gun violence...you reap what you sow, as they say. There's a real-life consequence for creating bogeymen around every corner.

Edited March 3, 2016 by caulfield12

[Rex Kickass]

All is well on my end. Are you working any campaigns or still in the travel industry?

I now work for a cruise line in business development. At this time, I am an informed voter and occasional small time campaign donor only. I think the city council campaign I managed in 2014 was probably my last campaign in any professional capacity.