LDF Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 9, 2016 -> 04:34 PM) Update to the math after the Tuesday results... BASELINES Total GOP delegates: 2,472 Party-level delegates - unbound: 168 So, voting-linked delegates: 2,304 50.00001% of 2,304 is rounded to 1,153 Total ending delegates to clinch: 1,237 Delegates to clinch a convention-proof nomination: 1,321 CURRENT STANDINGS - total so far: 1,050 awarded (45.6% of voting-linked total) Trump: 464 Cruz: 363 Rubio: 154 Kasich: 54 --- Carson: 8 Bush: 4 Fiorina: 1 Huckabee: 1 Paul: 1 PERCENT OF REMAINING DELEGATES NEEDED FOR CONV-PROOF MAJORITY (1,254 voting-linked delegates remaining) Trump: 857 delegates (68.3% of total) Cruz: 958 delegates (76.4% of total) Rubio: 1,167 delegates (93.1% of total) Others: mathematically impossible Again assuming none of the 4 drop out (which may not be the case)... 802 of the remaining 1,254 voting-linked delegates are WTA, so 452 proportional. DELEGATE COUNTS PLUS REMAINING PROPORTIONAL USING % WON OF THOSE SO FAR... Trump (applying 44.2% to remaining prop and totalling): 464 + 200 = 664 Cruz (34.6%): 363 + 156 = 519 Rubio (14.7%): 154 + 66 = 220 Kasich (5.1%): 54 + 23 = 77 NEED TO WIN IN WTA STATES TO CLINCH PRIOR TO NOMINATION Trump: Must win 657 of 802 Cruz: Must win 802 of 802 (lol) Everyone else: Mathematically impossible if proportional trends continue Trump and Cruz's level of difficulty haven't changed materially. It's nigh on impossible for Cruz, and truly for everyone else, barring big changes in their proportional performance. Of course, this doesn't obey that Cruz and Kasich are trending up, and Rubio down. But as Trump is basically running flat lately, the general parameters around him remain unchanged. He needs to win most of the big remaining WTA states and big chunks of the smaller ones as well, to win prior to convention. excellent break down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 14, 2016 Author Share Posted March 14, 2016 There have been a few small contests since my last update. So let's do one before the big March 15th set... BASELINES Total GOP delegates: 2,472 Party-level delegates - unbound: 168 So, voting-linked delegates: 2,304 50.00001% of 2,304 is rounded to 1,153 Total ending delegates to clinch: 1,237 Delegates to clinch a convention-proof nomination: 1,321 CURRENT STANDINGS - total so far: 1,071 awarded (46.5% of voting-linked total) (leaving off the uncommitted for now) Trump: 460 Cruz: 370 Rubio: 163 Kasich: 63 --- Carson: 8 Bush: 4 Fiorina: 1 Huckabee: 1 Paul: 1 PERCENT OF REMAINING DELEGATES NEEDED FOR CONV-PROOF MAJORITY (1,233 voting-linked delegates remaining) Trump: 861 delegates (69.8% of total) Cruz: 951 delegates (77.1% of total) Rubio: 1,158 delegates (93.9% of total) Others: mathematically impossible Again assuming none of the current 4 drop out (which may not be the case)... 802 of the remaining 1,233 voting-linked delegates are WTA, so 431 proportional. DELEGATE COUNTS PLUS REMAINING PROPORTIONAL USING % WON OF THOSE SO FAR... Trump (applying 40.2% to remaining prop and totalling): 460 + 173 = 633 Cruz (36.2%): 370 + 156 = 526 Rubio (16.0%): 163 + 69 = 232 Kasich (6.2%): 63 + 27 = 90 NEED TO WIN IN WTA STATES TO CLINCH PRIOR TO NOMINATION Trump: Must win 688 of 802 Cruz: Must win 795 of 802 (lol) Everyone else: Mathematically impossible if proportional trends continue Not much change, Trump is the only one remotely plausible to clinch prior to convention, and even for him the odds are long and getting longer. So now let's look at the states for March 15th, with recent poll averages (in order of biggest prizes)... FLORIDA - 99 BOUND DELEGATES (WTA) March poll % averages: Trump 39.9%, Rubio 25.2%, Cruz 18.2%, Kasich 8.6% ILLINOIS - 69 BOUND DELEGATES (WTA) March poll % averages: Trump 32.5%, Cruz 21.0%, Kasich 18.0%, Rubio 16.0% NORTH CAROLINA - 69 BOUND DELEGATES (PROPORTIONAL) *NO POLLS IN MARCH *Polls in Feb had Trump with a lead in the 9 to 18 point range, Cruz and Rubio around tied for 2nd OHIO - 63 BOUND DELEGATES (WTA) March poll % averages: Kasich 36.0%, Trump 33.3%, Cruz 20.3%, Rubio 5.3% (worth noting here that Rubio has told his voters to vote for Kasich in Ohio recently, may not show in polls) MISSOURI - 49 BOUND DELEGATES ("Winner Take Most" - some odd rules here) March poll % (just one poll, and big 7% MOE): Trump 36%, Cruz 29%, Rubio 9%, Kasich 8% NORTHERN MARIANAS - 9 BOUND DELEGATES (WTA) *I can't find any polls -- So, Trump will almost assuredly win Florida's 99 and Illinois' 69, which is a big boost for him. Kasich looks likely to take Ohio's 63, which helps him and also makes Trump's run at a bullet-proof delegate count much more difficult. NC who knows, MO the one poll has such a big margin for error but Trump appears to have a slight edge. If someone other than Trump wins (most/prop) NC and/or MO, that will nearly guarantee a contested convention. The picture should have more clarity by Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Kasich wins Ohio, Rubio drops out and endorses Kasich. We get to the convention with three candidates and none having a majority. Have no idea what happens then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Mar 14, 2016 -> 09:04 AM) Kasich wins Ohio, Rubio drops out and endorses Kasich. We get to the convention with three candidates and none having a majority. Have no idea what happens then. Mitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Mitt. I don't see that happening. You're going to have to get at least two of the three candidates to support the same guy and I don't see Mitt getting the support of either Trump or Cruz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Chappas Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 (edited) Am I crazy to think Kasich is the only candidate that could beat Hillary? I am not a Hillary fan but I am not certain I would vote for Trump, Rubio or Cruz. Edited March 14, 2016 by Harry Chappas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Am I crazy to think Kasich is the only candidate that could be Hillary? I am not a Hillary fan but I am not certain I would vote for Trump, Rubio or Cruz. Kasich consistently polls better than Trump or Cruz vs Hillary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Mar 14, 2016 -> 03:52 PM) Kasich consistently polls better than Trump or Cruz vs Hillary. I'd consider him, but I don't see a real scenario where he wins the nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Pols whom voters have lower information about typically poll better in fake national races. It's kind of why those polls are meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Sam Wang on why losing Ohio helps trump in the long run http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-im...-win-nomination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Sam Wang on why losing Ohio helps trump in the long run http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-im...-win-nomination Doesn't help him a lot. With Rubio out Kasich gets enough delegates to keep Trump from getting a majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Mar 15, 2016 -> 07:23 PM) Doesn't help him a lot. With Rubio out Kasich gets enough delegates to keep Trump from getting a majority. How does Kasich get any more delegates even? He had 60 coming into the night and that was with every state being proportional so far. Now almost every state is winner take all or winner take most. Im sure hell pick up a couple but nothing significant. Im talking microscopic amount. He has no money. You'd figure Pennsylvania would be his second best state, but he couldn't get the 2,000 signatures to get on the ballot there on time. Edited March 16, 2016 by Buehrle>Wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 How does Kasich get any more delegates even? He had 60 coming into the night and that was with every state being proportional so far. Now almost every state is winner take all or winner take most. Im sure hell pick up a couple but nothing significant. Im talking microscopic amount. He has no money. You'd figure Pennsylvania would be his second best state, but he couldn't get the 2,000 signatures to get on the ballot there on time. Kasich is going to pick up a lot of Rubio's organization, money, and votes, and probably a lot of organization and money from Bush as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 Waiting on Missouri to be called before updating the numbers. Rubio dropping out helps Kasich and maybe Cruz as well. Because Trump didn't win Ohio, the chances of a contested convention go up. If Cruz wins Missouri (which seems unlikely), it would all but assure a contested convention. Cruz is in an odd place. A contested convention is basically the only way he can win at this point, and yet he knows he'd be pressured by the establishment and possibly squeezed out at such a convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I really want to see Kasich make a run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Waiting on Missouri to be called before updating the numbers. Rubio dropping out helps Kasich and maybe Cruz as well. Because Trump didn't win Ohio, the chances of a contested convention go up. If Cruz wins Missouri (which seems unlikely), it would all but assure a contested convention. Cruz is in an odd place. A contested convention is basically the only way he can win at this point, and yet he knows he'd be pressured by the establishment and possibly squeezed out at such a convention. I don't see how Cruz can be the choice at a contested convention. The party has to realize that Trump's supporters are much more likely to vote for Hillary or stay home if he isn't the nominee than Cruz' supporters if he isn't. The only real path the Republicans have to winning in November is for Trump to put 100% of his support behind Kasich but that just doesn't seem like anything Trump would consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Mar 16, 2016 -> 09:58 AM) I don't see how Cruz can be the choice at a contested convention. The party has to realize that Trump's supporters are much more likely to vote for Hillary or stay home if he isn't the nominee than Cruz' supporters if he isn't. The only real path the Republicans have to winning in November is for Trump to put 100% of his support behind Kasich but that just doesn't seem like anything Trump would consider. Trump was already talking about riots in the streets this morning if he were to not get the nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Trump was already talking about riots in the streets this morning if he were to not get the nomination. I'm talking about what is still an incredibly unlikely scenario where Trump actually participates in a deal to nominate somebody else, as opposed to it happening behind his back or whatever. I agree that if Trump has 40+% of the delegates and he gets pushed out of the nomination against his will it will ruin the party's chances in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 OK, it looks like Missouri could take days to resolve, so I am going to do an update based on some assumptions... BASELINES Total GOP delegates: 2,472 Party-level delegates - unbound: 168 So, voting-linked delegates: 2,304 50.00001% of 2,304 is rounded to 1,153 Total ending delegates to clinch: 1,237 Delegates to clinch a convention-proof nomination: 1,321 CURRENT STANDINGS - total so far: 1,433 awarded (62.2% of voting-linked total) (leaving off the uncommitted/supers for now) *************For Missouri, I am assuming Trump takes it with Cruz getting the districts he has now (39/10/0 for T/C/K) *************For Illinois, same thing on the 66 voting-linked delgates (52/10/4 for T/C/K) Trump: 688 Cruz: 418 Kasich: 143 ---out... Rubio: 169 Carson: 8 Bush: 4 Fiorina: 1 Huckabee: 1 Paul: 1 PERCENT OF REMAINING DELEGATES NEEDED FOR CONV-PROOF MAJORITY (871 voting-linked delegates remaining) Trump: 633 delegates (72.7% of total) Others: mathematically impossible 507 of the remaining 871 voting-linked delegates are WTA or WTM from winner, so 364 proportional delegates of some form. Now, using recent national polls from March among the remaining candidates among LV, with splitting Rubio's votes about evenly between them, you get these likely proportional outcomes... DELEGATE COUNTS PLUS REMAINING PROPORTIONAL USING % ABOVE... Trump (applying 37% to remaining prop and totalling): 688 + 135 = 823 Cruz (34%): 418 + 124 = 542 Kasich (29%): 143 + 105 = 248 NEED TO WIN IN WTA STATES TO CLINCH PRIOR TO NOMINATION Trump: Must win 498 of 507 Everyone else: Mathematically impossible if proportional trends continue So now, Trump is the only one left who can clinch a bullet-proof number prior to convention, and in order for him to do that, if his proportional rate stays about what his overall rate has been and national polling says (plus Rubio portion), he would have to win ALL the remaining WTA delegates to do it. Well, he could lose American Samoa and still make it, but let's be real. WILDCARDS --Rubio's support won't likely be evenly split. One would think his moderate stances align best with Kasich, but he shares common ethnicity with Cruz, and Trump has the winning bandwagon. --The actual results from MO and IL could vary a bit from above. --Almost all the remaining contests are in one of these regions: west coast (which probably best aligns with a moderate like Kasich), northern plains (probably Cruzville), and portions of the northeast (Trump mostly, but PA could like Kasich). Regionality is key now. The south is basically done. UP NEXT I'll wait a few days for new polls without Rubio in the next few states. Those contests are: MARCH 22: American Samoa (9, all open caucus-bound), Arizona (58, WTA, all bound), Utah (40, Winner Take Most, 37 bound, 3 unbound) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Chappas Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Mar 16, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) I'm talking about what is still an incredibly unlikely scenario where Trump actually participates in a deal to nominate somebody else, as opposed to it happening behind his back or whatever. I agree that if Trump has 40+% of the delegates and he gets pushed out of the nomination against his will it will ruin the party's chances in November. I will not vote for Trump over Hillary then I will not vote for Hillary over any other Democrat Whoever is not Trump or Hillary gets my vote Am I too arrogant to think this is the smartest move and what a majority of America is thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox_Sonix Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Mar 16, 2016 -> 02:56 PM) I will not vote for Trump over Hillary then I will not vote for Hillary over any other Democrat Whoever is not Trump or Hillary gets my vote Am I too arrogant to think this is the smartest move and what a majority of America is thinking? Yes. Whoever is not Trump or Bernie will be getting my vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 Latest polls, with a new batch of contests coming up Tuesday... ARIZONA (58 delegates, all bound, winner-take-all), no post-Rubio polls so showing the full picture with Rubio: Trump 34% Cruz 21% Kasich 12.5% UTAH (40 delegates, all bound, winner-take-most), using the only post-Rubio poll: Cruz 53% Kasich 29% Trump 11% AMERICAN SAMOA (9 delegates, none bound, Caucus) *couldn't find any polls So, with Arizona, Rubio had been running like 20% and he's out now. There's no telling how that will break, but I'd have to think Trump has the inside track in the "build a wall" state. Hopefully we'll see a post-Rubio poll before the primary. In Utah it looks like Cruz should cruise. I'm surprised how high Kasich is and how low Trump is there - probably a religion factor there. Plus Romney and Huntsman have expressed strong rejection of Trump, which may have some pull there. Remember that Trump needs some 72% of remaining delegates to get the bullet-proof number, and 67%+ to even get half of the bound delegates. If he wins AZ and Samoa but loses Utah, that's like 63% on the day so he's not quite running that rate. That means he gets slightly further from the nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 Now there's an AZ poll out, post-Rubio: Trump: 45.7% Cruz: 33.3% Kasich: 17.1% Undecided: 3.8% Confidence at like 88% for those who chose a candidate. So it looks pretty locked in, with Trump highly likely to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Rubio might be reaching a deal to have some of his delegates (in states where it is allowed) to switch to Cruz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Mar 21, 2016 -> 03:13 PM) Rubio might be reaching a deal to have some of his delegates (in states where it is allowed) to switch to Cruz. Before the convention even? Wow, that's an interesting move. I assume that comes with an endorsement then, because that is the value Cruz gets from having them now instead of at (or right before) convention. Where did you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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