Official 2016 Soxtalk White Sox win total prediction thread

[SCCWS]

There's room for Sale and Rodon to improve from last year, especially Rodon.

Danks might regress a bit, but we've long come to expect little out of him.

 

So then you're essentially comparing Latos/Erik Johnson with Shark's 2015.

 

All things considered, they should be a notch or two better, especially if we get our expected improved defensive play in the outfield.

 

Last year our starters were pretty healthy other than Sale stumbling out of the block early. Jones was the key injury so the pen was affected. My gut is we have an injury to a starter at some point and our lack of depth at that position would get really exposed.

 

[southsider2k5]

Last year our starters were pretty healthy other than Sale stumbling out of the block early. Jones was the key injury so the pen was affected. My gut is we have an injury to a starter at some point and our lack of depth at that position would get really exposed.

 

You have to plan on Latos missing starts. You should also plan on Sale having a dead arm period as well. That is without random luck. Having Turner and Johnson ready to go is a big deal.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

You have to plan on Latos missing starts. You should also plan on Sale having a dead arm period as well. That is without random luck. Having Turner and Johnson ready to go is a big deal.

 

Right . No one should be expecting much from Latos but if we get it watch out !

[brett05]

84

[Balta1701]

In at 78-80.

[Black_Jack29]

You have to plan on Latos missing starts. You should also plan on Sale having a dead arm period as well. That is without random luck. Having Turner and Johnson ready to go is a big deal.

 

Yep, I'd like to see Latos/Johnson/Fulmer taking some of Sale's starts in August and September.

 

[BigFinn]

103 wins.

 

La Roche to have a career year.

 

Cabrera to win MVP.

 

Quintana to win the CY Young.

 

Royals to get more suspensions after trying to throw at Lawrie.

 

Cubs to go 82-82.

 

Now who wants to drink my Coolade?

I'll shove my chips in. 96 wins in the regular season, 11-2 in the playoffs, and a White Sox World Series Championship. Its March, let's dream big. I'll start sulking mid-May.

[Balta1701]

Yep, I'd like to see Latos/Johnson/Fulmer taking some of Sale's starts in August and September.

The only scenario where I would be in favor of this is if the White Sox have a commanding lead for home field throughout the AL playoffs by mid-August.

 

If they're in the race but it's tight...no. You live or die based on Sale, not based on a rookie, unless he actually "asks out" of a start because things get that bad.

 

If they're out of the race but Sale is healthy enough to keep pitching, then pitch him. Get him to 220 innings with a dead arm this year and maybe his arm is conditioned for 230 next year.

[flavum]

I'd be very happy to see Sale make 33 starts this year, with old school good looking stats: 22-5 with a 2.28 ERA, and 230 k's in 230 innings. And the Sox win 93 games and he wins a Cy.

[Doc Edwards Shot]

81-82

 

I'm just not a believer yet. Paranoid that Todd Frazier is going to pull an Adam Dunn and come in here and suck offensively.

[Black_Jack29]

The only scenario where I would be in favor of this is if the White Sox have a commanding lead for home field throughout the AL playoffs by mid-August.

 

If they're in the race but it's tight...no. You live or die based on Sale, not based on a rookie, unless he actually "asks out" of a start because things get that bad.

 

If they're out of the race but Sale is healthy enough to keep pitching, then pitch him. Get him to 220 innings with a dead arm this year and maybe his arm is conditioned for 230 next year.

 

The thing about Sale is that he's never been consistently excellent in August and September, like he's often been in the first half of the season. So it's not like you're not going to be missing the dominant Sale by occasionally sitting him at that point in the season. Assuming that he's falling into a dead arm period in the late summer, I'd rather he skip 1-3 starts between August and September. (This, of course, assumes that Fulmer and Johnson can put up above-average performances, and/or that Latos is healthy.)

 

[southsider2k5]

I'll shove my chips in. 96 wins in the regular season, 11-2 in the playoffs, and a White Sox World Series Championship. Its March, let's dream big. I'll start sulking mid-May.

 

96 wins means everything went right.

 

It means Latos makes 30 really good starts. It means John Danks doesn't suck. It means that the OF doesn't let nearly as many balls fall to the ground, while hitting a whole lot more than the did last year. It means the infield defense is solid, and their offensive output is good. It means Abreu and Frazier, are Abreu and Frazier.

 

It also means the bullpen has a solid year, especially at the back end.

 

I have to squint really hard to see that much going right all at once.

[bmags]

My cynical side sees us at 81-81, in it in september before a horrible 2 week slide in the last two weeks.

 

My optimistic side sees us winning a bad division(recordwise) with 88 wins.

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm going with 83 wins. Might move that up or down a few based on injuries headed into the opener. If they stay healthy this spring and have everyone ready to go maybe go with 85.

[OmarComing25]

The thing about Sale is that he's never been consistently excellent in August and September, like he's often been in the first half of the season. So it's not like you're not going to be missing the dominant Sale by occasionally sitting him at that point in the season. Assuming that he's falling into a dead arm period in the late summer, I'd rather he skip 1-3 starts between August and September. (This, of course, assumes that Fulmer and Johnson can put up above-average performances, and/or that Latos is healthy.)

Nah I agree with Balta. We need to be able to rely on Sale for 220 IP at some point if we want to make the playoffs, so sitting him isn't going to make that happen. Plus you're underselling Sale. His career ERA in August is 3.06, and while he tends to struggle in September his career ERA in that month is still 3.63, which is likely to be better than what we'll get from anyone replacing him. And I don't think sitting him is the way to get him to pitch better in September.

[southsider2k5]

Nah I agree with Balta. We need to be able to rely on Sale for 220 IP at some point if we want to make the playoffs, so sitting him isn't going to make that happen. Plus you're underselling Sale. His career ERA in August is 3.06, and while he tends to struggle in September his career ERA in that month is still 3.63, which is likely to be better than what we'll get from anyone replacing him. And I don't think sitting him is the way to get him to pitch better in September.

 

The best way to take care of Chris Sale is for the entire 5 man rotation to make it able for Sale to not have to start every single 5th day. If all five starters can be counted on at a reasonable level, Sale can get the regular extra day of rest and keep his work load from being too intense, while still making every start.

[Bob Sacamano]

My cynical side sees us at 81-81, in it in september before a horrible 2 week slide in the last two weeks.

 

My optimistic side sees us winning a bad division(recordwise) with 88 wins.

 

Man seen this story too many times over the years.

[Balta1701]

The best way to take care of Chris Sale is for the entire 5 man rotation to make it able for Sale to not have to start every single 5th day. If all five starters can be counted on at a reasonable level, Sale can get the regular extra day of rest and keep his work load from being too intense, while still making every start.

If you're that worried about Chris Sale's work load...then be proactive. Let "Mr. Offday" start once in May and once in June when your bullpen is rested, give him a couple extra days each time, and don't let him average 116 pitches per start in June.

 

If you're 2 games out of the race in August, let's face it, even if Chris is getting blown up too often down the stretch, you're going to have a tough time not giving him the ball. He's going to want the ball. You're not going to want Latos taking the ball and you're not going to want Fulmer taking the ball. I'd give him the ball. You'd give him the ball. I'd give him a 5th or 6th day of rest if the offdays lined up and it gave us an excuse to put him against the team ahead of us, but that's about it. No way he's skipping a start if this is a close race.

[Chisoxfn]

It is nice to look (at least for the time being) at the standings and seeing the Sox near the top. Relatively speaking, didn't realize Cubs were 1-8. Only Baltimore is worse.

[chitownsportsfan]

If you're that worried about Chris Sale's work load...then be proactive. Let "Mr. Offday" start once in May and once in June when your bullpen is rested, give him a couple extra days each time, and don't let him average 116 pitches per start in June.

 

If you're 2 games out of the race in August, let's face it, even if Chris is getting blown up too often down the stretch, you're going to have a tough time not giving him the ball. He's going to want the ball. You're not going to want Latos taking the ball and you're not going to want Fulmer taking the ball. I'd give him the ball. You'd give him the ball. I'd give him a 5th or 6th day of rest if the offdays lined up and it gave us an excuse to put him against the team ahead of us, but that's about it. No way he's skipping a start if this is a close race.

 

Sale should never be throwing more than 110 pitches in any non playoff, non "do or die" game. Yea, if it's the play in game f*** let'er rip into the 120s but FFS not in April. Didn't RV immediately having Sale throwing 110+ last May coming off the foot?

[Kyyle23]

It is nice to look (at least for the time being) at the standings and seeing the Sox near the top. Relatively speaking, didn't realize Cubs were 1-8. Only Baltimore is worse.

 

I think the Cubs will be fine, but could you imagine what the reaction here would be if Robin Ventura brought in clowns to camp one day, followed by a guy walking around practice playing a guitar, among other goofy things, and the Sox record was 1-8?

[Black_Jack29]

Nah I agree with Balta. We need to be able to rely on Sale for 220 IP at some point if we want to make the playoffs, so sitting him isn't going to make that happen.

 

If Sale's arm isn't conditioned to throw 220 innings right now, running him out there every five days in August and September with a dead arm isn't going to help us make the playoffs in 2016.

 

Plus you're underselling Sale. His career ERA in August is 3.06, and while he tends to struggle in September his career ERA in that month is still 3.63, which is likely to be better than what we'll get from anyone replacing him. And I don't think sitting him is the way to get him to pitch better in September.

 

No, I'm pointing out that Sale tends to be erratic in August and September. The ERA numbers that you're citing are monthly averages and obscure the fact that he tends to have some bad starts in the late summer. And I'm not advocating "sitting him" in general. I'm advocating him skipping 1-3 starts over the last two months of the season, which means that he'd still be throwing plenty of innings in August and September. Alternatively, you could put him on a pitch count in the late summer.

 

If you're that worried about Chris Sale's work load...then be proactive. Let "Mr. Offday" start once in May and once in June when your bullpen is rested, give him a couple extra days each time, and don't let him average 116 pitches per start in June.

 

And that's another good option.

 

Edited March 11, 2016 by Black_Jack29

[southsider2k5]

I think the Cubs will be fine, but could you imagine what the reaction here would be if Robin Ventura brought in clowns to camp one day, followed by a guy walking around practice playing a guitar, among other goofy things, and the Sox record was 1-8?

 

Not to mention the meltdown over Stereotype the Japs day.

[shipps]

This team could go either way easily. I can see them winning 95+ and I can see them winning 72.

 

Way to step out on the limb there shipps.

[Jose Abreu]

82-80, 4th in the division.

eh, not the worst guess in the world.