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4/11 Game thread: @ Minnesota, 3:10pm, CSN/WLS


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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 11, 2016 -> 01:33 PM)
The number being used ("over 3") is 3.57. 3.57 is definitely not 30% less than 4. You're also assuming that he never improves. (Since OP said he doesn't put up a season as good as 2014 Rollins even at full ceiling, and someone decided to make WAR the only stat being talked about)

 

Ok, well it definitely is still 15% less. And you could remove that line and still have all the same arguments. I would agree with the sentiment of the poster that Saladino has shown us literally nothing to indicate that he has a 4WAR season in him somewhere. It's possible he reaches 4WAR in the same way that it's possible that literally any player reaches 4WAR, which is in the instance that players sometimes miraculously get a lot better. One partial season of defensive data (that takes about three full seasons to become reliably predictive) does nothing to change that. OP's point is correct: even acknowledging Rollins' age and decline, it's far more likely that Rollins bounces back to a level he's reached several times in the past than it is that Saladino reaches a height several times higher than has been indicated by anything he's ever done.

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It is amazing how much more popular Saladino became once the Sox got Rollins. Carlos Sanchez became popular as well. For that matter, some were even up in arms Tyler Flowers was gone. Keep in mind, with those guys in the line up, even though they did improve the defense drastically from the opening day line up, it didn't result in more wins.

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