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4/13 Game thread: Minnesota, 7:10pm, WPWR/WLS


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QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 09:22 PM)
What's your source for the odds of someone getting hurt to be 1%?

I'm not going to waste my time compiling stats of catchers who get injured in the 7th inning or later, but I'd bet everything possible that the odds are less than 1%. If you are unable to see that, then that's not my problem.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 08:25 PM)
I'm not going to waste my time compiling stats of catchers who get injured in the 7th inning or later, but I'd bet everything possible that the odds are less than 1%. If you are unable to see that, then that's not my problem.

You can't claim that then if you won't do the work lol

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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 09:27 PM)
You can't claim that then if you won't do the work lol

If you can't use critical thinking skills to think of every time you have seen a catcher leave the game with an injury after the 7th inning, and consider how rare it is, then that's on you. Sorry I don't have time to do the research.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 09:15 PM)
But again, the chances of that injury happening are far less than 1%. The chances of MN coming back, scoring 3+ runs, and that AB meaning something, are more than 1%.

 

ABSOLUTE worst-case scenario, Navarro gets hurt in the 2.5 innings, and we have to go with Saladino/Lawrie at catcher (since they used to be catchers), but the odds of that happening are puny.

 

Navarro getting hurt would be an unsolvable disaster for the game.

 

You are introducing a worst case scenario that costs you the game, in exchange for a reward that really isnt that large at all when you are up 3.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 09:29 PM)
Especially when you consider how many games Avila alone has lost due to injury.

We are discussing Navarro though. If the situation were flipped, I'd be more wary, but Navarro is a switch-hitter anyway.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 09:28 PM)
If you can't use critical thinking skills to think of every time you have seen a catcher leave the game with an injury after the 7th inning, and consider how rare it is, then that's on you. Sorry I don't have time to do the research.

 

Critical thinking skills would tell you not to take risks that could be monumentally stupid either.

 

The odds of something bad happening are somewhere. The downside of it actually happening are huge. #1 you turn the game you are into an almost certain loss by putting a guy behind the plate who is 100% not equipped to catch a baseball at the major league level.

 

The odds of you getting hurt on a motorcycle without a helmet on any one ride are very small. But that one time that an accident happens and your brains are splattered all over the pavement is the wrong time to realize why playing those odds is a dumb idea.

 

It is the same reason you have home owners insurance against fires and such.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 08:28 PM)
If you can't use critical thinking skills to think of every time you have seen a catcher leave the game with an injury after the 7th inning, and consider how rare it is, then that's on you. Sorry I don't have time to do the research.

LOL puhlease

Edited by SouthSideSale
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We expected that Rollins, Avila, Jackson and Garcia weren't going to set the world on fire.

 

Had no idea about Danks and Latos (well, maybe a PRETTY good idea on JD 50).

 

 

The funny thing is if you could just re-start the 2014-15 offseason and purge Beckham, Duke, Bonifacio, Samardzija, LaRoche and Cabrera (basically, Robertson is the only one who has come close to earning his money, but he's tied for the highest paid closer in baseball fwiw)...you would have the White Sox in a position to be one of the best teams in baseball.

 

As it is now, it's going to be a huge battle with KC plugging along and Detroit decidedly improved.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 13, 2016 -> 09:35 PM)
As it is now, it's going to be a huge battle with KC plugging along and Detroit decidedly improved.

 

Sox have the best staff in the division and only need a league average offense to contend. They also have pieces not named Anderson or Fulmer to move at the deadline for help in the OF and a top 50 prospect to step in for Rollins in the near future as well. Sox should be fine.

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