southsider2k5 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 What is really interesting is how divergent these two projections are. Fangraphs has the White Sox at 35.1%. BP has the White Sox at 52.7%. Both systems really like the Indians though. Despite being 6-7 and in 4th place, BP has them at 70.1%, and FG has them at 60.5%. The computers hate the Royals. Despite being 10-5, FG has them with a 29.3% chance at the playoffs, and BP has 20.8%. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?l...f&year=2016 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjusttyped Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 Maybe I shouldn't do this, but in my head I've just swapped the Indians and Royals playoff odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 If I'm not mistaken, don't the computers always hate The Royals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 04:52 PM) If I'm not mistaken, don't the computers always hate The Royals? Use Vegas odds. They make sure they work out............................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggins Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 The Royals don't really look impressive on paper, aside from a few guys. Projections have flaws built into them that seem to drastically underrate the ability to not strike out. Not striking out seems to build cluster luck, which leads to the Royals winning 90 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggins Posted April 22, 2016 Share Posted April 22, 2016 The Indians, meanwhile, look great on paper, but are always hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 QUOTE (daggins @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 04:58 PM) The Royals don't really look impressive on paper, aside from a few guys. Projections have flaws built into them that seem to drastically underrate the ability to not strike out. Not striking out seems to build cluster luck, which leads to the Royals winning 90 games. The problem is the Royals aren't the only team that doesn't strike out. The Braves were 2nd to the Royals last year in fewest number of strikeouts but had well below average cluster luck and scored the least amount of runs in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 24, 2016 Author Share Posted April 24, 2016 Sox now by themselves in first place see their Fangraphs odds at 42.7%, which is their highest of the season so far there. At BP they are 61.5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 FG is at a season high 45.7%. Cleveland still leads the way at 66.6%, KC 3rd at 33.5%. BP has us at 64.5% Cleveland also leads the way here at 78.5%, and KC is a far 3rd at 21.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Why does everyone think Cleveland is so good? They're a mediocre team anyway, but they're done if Carrasco is out for any lengthy period of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 If the White Sox go 72-71 from here on out, they will finish 85-77. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 25, 2016 -> 09:42 AM) If the White Sox go 72-71 from here on out, they will finish 85-77. Which is exactly 1 game behind what got the 2nd wild card last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
he gone. Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 I put zero stock in those. Not to be all Hawk about stats, but playoff percentage means nothing to me. I'll do it by the eye test. Right now if I had to revise my pre-season prediction: Royals 92 Wins Tigers 86 Wins Sox 86 Wins Indians 83 Wins Twins 72 Wins Sox until they can get a bat I cannot take seriously. Pitching wont always be this good. Bats wont always be this bad. However counting on Ajax, Garcia, Sands, Saladino, Rollins, Avila to win us games consistently doesn't work in my mind. Get one more bat and I'm a sold believer. Doesn't even have to be an OF. Just a bat. I think it should be possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Apr 25, 2016 -> 10:53 AM) I put zero stock in those. Not to be all Hawk about stats, but playoff percentage means nothing to me. I'll do it by the eye test. Right now if I had to revise my pre-season prediction: Royals 92 Wins Tigers 86 Wins Sox 86 Wins Indians 83 Wins Twins 72 Wins Sox until they can get a bat I cannot take seriously. Pitching wont always be this good. Bats wont always be this bad. However counting on Ajax, Garcia, Sands, Saladino, Rollins, Avila to win us games consistently doesn't work in my mind. Get one more bat and I'm a sold believer. Doesn't even have to be an OF. Just a bat. I think it should be possible. Yeah, they're just for fun, especially because they can't predict which teams will be buyers and sellers in July. There's just no way to know. I guessed 83 wins before the season. If I'm completely unconvinced by anything that has happened so far and thought they were still the same 83-win team - just with a 13-6 start - that'd put my new guess at 86. And I'm unconvinced by most of what's taken place. The major exceptions are Sale and Quintana. I feel like Sale is going to be the best pitcher in the AL by far this year, and Quintana will have his best season as well. Part of this is that they finally have a competent defense behind them - the third major exception. The hunch I have about that stuff bumps my guess up to 88 wins for the Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 BP's playoff odds are heavily biased towards good defensive teams. Cleveland, Tampa and Boston are all off to mediocre starts but BP projects them to be 3 of the 4 best teams in the AL the rest of the season mostly due to FRAA numbers > 30. I just don't think defense alone can pull you out of mediocrity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Nate Silver just posted his most recent projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 25, 2016 Author Share Posted April 25, 2016 QUOTE (Dunt @ Apr 25, 2016 -> 03:46 PM) Nate Silver just posted his most recent projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/ Sox are 49%, Indians at 50%, Royals at 47%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 54.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalapse Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 63% on FiveThirtyEight, best in the AL. Projections still love the Indians and their young rotation/Lindor, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 QUOTE (Kalapse @ Apr 27, 2016 -> 12:12 AM) 63% on FiveThirtyEight, best in the AL. Projections still love the Indians and their young rotation/Lindor, though. Sox have already done a helluva job "banking" extra wins against the projections. Play 1 game over from here on out and you've got yourself 86 wins. That probably has 50% of odds of being enough, and the playoff odds reflect that. What a start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 (edited) Sox have increased their playoff odds by 28.1% on Fangraphs since April 3rd Edited April 27, 2016 by Dunt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 26, 2016 -> 11:16 PM) Sox have already done a helluva job "banking" extra wins against the projections. Play 1 game over from here on out and you've got yourself 86 wins. That probably has 50% of odds of being enough, and the playoff odds reflect that. What a start! Just as a note, 86 wins was the total for the second wild card last year in the AL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 Baseball Prospectus odds have us at 73.1%, finally passing the Indians who sit at 69.6%. Detroit is a distant third at 17.8%, Royals 4th at 16.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 27, 2016 Author Share Posted April 27, 2016 QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 26, 2016 -> 10:40 PM) 54.0% Indians still lead in the Fangraphs work at 62.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shysocks Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Playoff odds at fangraphs featured in this piece. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...rt-they-needed/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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