Miguel Gonzalez getting called up, Danks skipped

[southsider2k5]

So, what is the group consensus on Gonzalez?

 

He wasn't good yesterday, but to be fair, it was his first start with the Sox against the best offense in baseball at their place.

 

I don't know about you guys, but I'd give him at least one more chance. If nothing else, he is a better strikeout pitcher than Danks has been for years.

 

Gonzalez gave up 13 base runners in 5 1/3 innings. It isn't that he gave up 5 runs, it is that it could have been worse!

[southsider2k5]

Is Danks' velocity really down 2-3 MPH? If so, I say you give him the Baltimore start and maybe one after that before making a final decision. If that velocity doesn't come back, he's not going to be an effective 5th starter in the majors.

 

As far as contingency plans, I think Gonzalez deserves a second look. The end result was ugly yesterday, but the velocity was there for him and the periphials were ok. If things don't work out for him, Johnson should be next in line followed by Turner. I haven't seen any reports on his velocity since spring training, but if it has come back, I fully believe EJ can be a solid #5 starter. Turner has pitched the best out of minor league guys but doesn't have an option left, so when he comes up he's got to stick for good. I'd like to see him show success for a few more weeks before I consider, so maybe late May or early June.

 

According to fangraphs, Danks is down about 2 mph on his fastball and cutter, down about 1mph on his curve and down 0.3 mph on his change.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=P

[OmarComing25]

Yeah it wasn't a very encouraging start at all. He got hit very hard.

[Dick Allen]

Gonzalez gave up 13 base runners in 5 1/3 innings. It isn't that he gave up 5 runs, it is that it could have been worse!

Eaton doesn't throw the guy out at 3B, that would have been another run. The spin that he wasn't so bad is the "he's not John Danks" argument. The guy was bad. I'm with you, it probably should have been worse.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

Eaton doesn't throw the guy out at 3B, that would have been another run. The spin that he wasn't so bad is the "he's not John Danks" argument. The guy was bad.

 

Austin Jackson also made a nice catch on a ball out in deep left center field that ended an inning as well, which would have been a couple of runs IIRC.

[Leonard Zelig]

I wonder what Mark Buehrle's up to. You never know.....

Playing first base in beer league softball in St. Charles MO. I believe he is waiting for the Sox to give him a 1 day contract so he can retire a White Sox.

[hi8is]

The shopping list for the deadline is growing... Unless Flumer can magically turn it around and on.

[Feeky Magee]

Eaton doesn't throw the guy out at 3B, that would have been another run. The spin that he wasn't so bad is the "he's not John Danks" argument. The guy was bad. I'm with you, it probably should have been worse.

Let's not exaggerate, it shouldn't have been worse. His ERA for the start was 8.44 while his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were 4.39, 4.54 and 3.94 respectively. It wasn't a great start by any means but he was a bit BABIPed, and at least showed he could strike guys out and his velocity was back up from the 86-88 stuff that apparently influenced the Orioles to release him.

[southsider2k5]

Let's not exaggerate, it shouldn't have been worse. His ERA for the start was 8.44 while his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were 4.39, 4.54 and 3.94 respectively. It wasn't a great start by any means but he was a bit BABIPed, and at least showed he could strike guys out and his velocity was back up from the 86-88 stuff that apparently influenced the Orioles to release him.

 

This is a case where the numbers are lying to you. He got hit around like a red-headed step child, and had his defense bail him out of some bad situations. 13 baserunners in 5 1/3 innings pretty much said it all.

[shysocks]

Let's not exaggerate, it shouldn't have been worse. His ERA for the start was 8.44 while his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were 4.39, 4.54 and 3.94 respectively. It wasn't a great start by any means but he was a bit BABIPed, and at least showed he could strike guys out and his velocity was back up from the 86-88 stuff that apparently influenced the Orioles to release him.

If you're using FIP and the like as measurements of a single start, you're doing it wrong. They're models, and models lose accuracy with fewer inputs.

 

He was terrible. He was BABIPed because everything came off the bat at 200 miles an hour.

[Dick Allen]

If you're using FIP and the like as measurements of a single start, you're doing it wrong. They're models, and models lose accuracy with fewer inputs.

 

He was terrible. He was BABIPed because everything came off the bat at 200 miles an hour.

Yes, when people are lining the ball off the wall, that isn't BABIP luck.

[Feeky Magee]

If you're using FIP and the like as measurements of a single start, you're doing it wrong. They're models, and models lose accuracy with fewer inputs.

 

He was terrible. He was BABIPed because everything came off the bat at 200 miles an hour.

I'm fully aware of that, but not when they're under twice his ERA. If he throws like that again he probably doesn't give up 5 runs in 5.1 innings. You think if he throws the exact same pitches to that exact same lineup again, they still produce a .526 BABIP? It's not like everything was smoked either, Fangraphs has it at a 45% hard hit rate and 15% soft hit rate as opposed to his career averages of 30% and 18%. 4 of the 11 hits were groundball hits.

[Dick Allen]

I'm fully aware of that, but not when they're under twice his ERA. If he throws like that again he probably doesn't give up 5 runs in 5.1 innings. You think if he throws the exact same pitches to that exact same lineup again, they still produce a .526 BABIP? It's not like everything was smoked either, Fangraphs has it at a 45% hard hit rate and 15% soft hit rate as opposed to his career averages of 30% and 18%. 4 of the 11 hits were groundball hits.

The BABIP might be lower because some of those off the wall would go over.

[Feeky Magee]

The BABIP might be lower because some of those off the wall would go over.

Alternatively some guy would swing a tiny bit differently and the ball would roll to the infielder for a double play instead of a single. Baseball is random.

[southsider2k5]

I'm fully aware of that, but not when they're under twice his ERA. If he throws like that again he probably doesn't give up 5 runs in 5.1 innings. You think if he throws the exact same pitches to that exact same lineup again, they still produce a .526 BABIP? It's not like everything was smoked either, Fangraphs has it at a 45% hard hit rate and 15% soft hit rate as opposed to his career averages of 30% and 18%. 4 of the 11 hits were groundball hits.

 

What you are saying is that balls were hit hard against him at a rate 50% higher than his career average, but he wasn't hit hard?

 

I think pretty much anyone who watched the game last night will tell you he got hit HARD, no matter how you are reading the stats.

[shysocks]

I'm fully aware of that, but not when they're under twice his ERA. If he throws like that again he probably doesn't give up 5 runs in 5.1 innings. You think if he throws the exact same pitches to that exact same lineup again, they still produce a .526 BABIP? It's not like everything was smoked either, Fangraphs has it at a 45% hard hit rate and 15% soft hit rate as opposed to his career averages of 30% and 18%. 4 of the 11 hits were groundball hits.

I think if you run that game back, the BABIP might be lower because the balls that hit off the fence might have gone for homers instead. Throwing the way he was to that lineup, he would have been extremely lucky to get out with two or three runs.

 

Like I said earlier, I think he earned the next spot start. His stuff had life and he got it together well enough. But it was meatball city for a few innings there.

[Boopa1219]

Why would you add another bad pitcher to the rotation? It just gives you one less chance at winning each rotation turn.

 

Call up Turner, who's been pitching pretty well. Move Danks to the pen as your long man and Gonzalez takes his spot.

[Feeky Magee]

What you are saying is that balls were hit hard against him at a rate 50% higher than his career average, but he wasn't hit hard?

 

I think pretty much anyone who watched the game last night will tell you he got hit HARD, no matter how you are reading the stats.

I'm saying he was hit hard. I'm saying he probably wasn't hit that hard that he deserved over half the balls put in play to be hits. Even liners find fielders a lot of the time. It was a bad start. Literally all I'm saying is to say he deserved worse than an 8.44 ERA isn't accurate.

[flavum]

Danks is starting Thursday in Baltimore, if you didn't catch that.

[southsider2k5]

I'm saying he was hit hard. I'm saying he probably wasn't hit that hard that he deserved over half the balls put in play to be hits. Even liners find fielders a lot of the time. It was a bad start. Literally all I'm saying is to say he deserved worse than an 8.44 ERA isn't accurate.

 

Again, it could have easily been worse. Eaton threw out a runner at 3rd with a perfect throw. The next batter hit a bomb.

 

AJax also made a really nice play going a long way in LCF to catch a ball, with runners on second and third who would have scored for sure.

 

That is three runs right there that score in a game against a lesser defensive team. Realistically Gonzalez got a lot of breaks in that game to keep his numbers where they ended up.

[chitownsportsfan]

Again, it could have easily been worse. Eaton threw out a runner at 3rd with a perfect throw. The next batter hit a bomb.

 

AJax also made a really nice play going a long way in LCF to catch a ball, with runners on second and third who would have scored for sure.

 

That is three runs right there that score in a game against a lesser defensive team. Realistically Gonzalez got a lot of breaks in that game to keep his numbers where they ended up.

 

 

good to be a Sox fan right now. This defense is simply excellent.

[Dick Allen]

So according to FIP,xFIP and SIERRA, the pitches he threw should have resulted in 2.60 runs, 2.68 runs, and 2.33 runs allowed respectively.

 

That's pretty silly.

 

If they want to give him another shot fine, but call a spade a spade. He was awful. And thinking he could pitch like that and not allow 5 runs in 9 innings with just regular "luck" is crazy. Thankfully they won. The bullpen has been brilliant, and its is very likely after being up 5-1 with Stroman cruising, the Blue Jays took their feet off the gas.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Dick Allen

[OmarComing25]

According to Statcast, the average exit velocity off the bat last night against Gonzalez was 102 mph. He got hit really hard. For reference, the MLB average exit velocity is 90 mph.

[Feeky Magee]

Again, it could have easily been worse. Eaton threw out a runner at 3rd with a perfect throw. The next batter hit a bomb.

 

AJax also made a really nice play going a long way in LCF to catch a ball, with runners on second and third who would have scored for sure.

 

That is three runs right there that score in a game against a lesser defensive team. Realistically Gonzalez got a lot of breaks in that game to keep his numbers where they ended up.

Of course it could have been worse. But it also could have been better. For two of the dingers there were men on base from ground ball hits, which are often quite random. As I've said, even line drives can be quite random and find fielders. No matter how many meatballs you're throwing, you're normally not gonna deserve to have over half the balls in play fall for hits.

[Dick Allen]

Of course it could have been worse. But it also could have been better. For two of the dingers there were men on base from ground ball hits, which are often quite random. As I've said, even line drives can be quite random and find fielders. No matter how many meatballs you're throwing, you're normally not gonna deserve to have over half the balls in play fall for hits.

If you or I or any random Soxtalk poster hit the mound, we would get hit hard, not because of luck, but because we sucked.