Early Trade Speculation

[caulfield12]

Markakis is the most realistic name because the Braves and their new tracking stock just announced $36 million in losses the first quarter, mostly related to the Swisher/Bourn/Chris Johnson deal/s.

 

On the other hand, they've injected all that money from the stock sale to help cover some of those headaches, the biggest one of them being Hector Olivera with his domestic violence and non-production.

 

They supposedly love Markakis and his influence on the younger players, but he can be had. But taking on his entire contract now would be a huge overpay, and his performance has actually matched or even outmatched his salary...which, for one year would be perfectly reasonable but is going to be ugly the next couple of seasons. His main attribute is doubles and OBP right now. And you're actually downgrading your defense by adding him, unless you're making Melky Cabrera the DH.

 

It would make sense for a one year rental, but not two more years of commitment that's likely to get worse and worse. This is ONLY an option if Markakis can keep up his numbers (unlikely) and Avisail completely falls apart again (possible).

[Black_Jack29]

It's not going to take a top 50 prospect to get 2 months of Reddick. I'd do something along the lines of Adams+, but after that no thanks. With no chance of a qualifying offer, he will definitely hit free agency primed for a big pay day.

 

Maybe not, but the Sox have a large talent gap between Anderson/Fulmer and the rest of their prospects. I imagine that some other team will have something within this gap and will out-bid the Sox.

 

The A's will give up a comp pick by trading Reddick, so they'll definitely want something solid in return. (As you said, there' no way that Reddick accepts a QO in the off-season.)

 

[southsider2k5]

It's not going to take a top 50 prospect to get 2 months of Reddick. I'd do something along the lines of Adams+, but after that no thanks. With no chance of a qualifying offer, he will definitely hit free agency primed for a big pay day.

 

Most likely you will have to outbid a late first round draft pick in terms of value.

[caulfield12]

Which right now is running in the $8-10 million of value range.

 

We can all speculate that Adams would get it done...but I'm not sure Hahn is willing to part with one of two pitchers in our system best equipped to be a future starter with two future holes in the rotation opening up next season (and SOME concern about whether Fulmer's best suited for starting).

 

Everyone knows how expensive starting pitching is on the open market, and the available 2017 FA options for pitching are narrowing as we speak (Strasburg deal)...which means the deals that are MOST logical from the Sox standpoint are ones like adding a Nolasco or James Shields and taking on salary. Of course, any deal for pitching that guarantees years into the future carries with it a certain amount of risk.

 

The Twins had Hughes for one year and he was really good. Extension. Not so good since. Nolasco hasn't come close to earning his money. Santana was suspended, which wiped out any realistic chance the Twins had to compete last season. Overpaying for veteran starting pitching can also cripple a team's financial flexibility, especially a 3rd/4th quartile one like the Twins.

Edited May 10, 2016 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

Total Kenny deal. Thank God he doesn't run trades.

 

That's not a total Kenny deal, that is a misconception. KW never gave away many pieces that were highly regarded like that, more often than not he traded prospects that just disappeared into other organizations

 

 

The only guy that he traded that ended up really good was Gio, and he used Gio as a trade chip twice and got some good players back.

[caulfield12]

Unless you consider Chris Young and Chris Carter good, that would be correct.

 

Obviously, Carter's hitting a ton right now in meaningless games for the Brewers, but has been the definition of a three outcome guy like Pedro Alvarez. You can't just pencil in those same numbers for him at DH were he with the Sox.

 

 

They've also given up a lot of guys like Harrell, Bassit, Ely, Devenski, Wendelken, etc., that haven't stuck anywhere as starting pitchers.

I also remember David Holmberg being hyped by many as a future stud pitcher and that didn't quite work out.

 

The bigger concern has been identifying these guys like Nestor Molina and Matt Davidson, locking in on them...and having it blow up in their face/s. Courtney Hawkins on the draft side. At least they saw some progress there, now with Trayce and Anderson. And Avisail Garcia looked like a bust coming into 2016 and has reversed that trend for now. That's huge for an organization that can't afford to just spend to fix every problem that can't be solved internally.

 

 

 

 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Adams, Danish, Hawkins, and Engel for Markakis, Teheran, and $5 million.

 

Which team would say no to that deal?

[hi8is]

Adams, Danish, Hawkins, and Engel for Markakis, Teheran, and $5 million.

 

Which team would say no to that deal?

Seems to me a fair deal but I'd say the White Sox.

 

If they really see Adams and Engel as reaching close to their ceilings, that's a high price to pay for Markakis and Teheran.

[caulfield12]

Honestly, just throwing a bunch of names into a list isn't going to impress the Braves.

 

Engel, still, at this point profiles more as a 4th outfielder than a sure-fire MLB starter. Hawkins is a bust. Danish looks more like a reliever. Adams is the main player they'd be interested in, but, since he's from that area of the country, I would think their local/regional scouts already have a good feel for whether they believe he has what it takes to make it as a starter.

 

I can't see JR taking on $25 million in salary commitment for an aging Markakis (to send Melky to DH and bench Avi) AND sending even more money to ATL. I can't even remember the last time we sent $5 million to another team (maybe Linebrink to Atl?)

 

The Sox are likely to ride Miguel Gonzalez as long as they can...just like Latos. There's no pressing need to overpay for Markakis.

 

One interesting note would be adding another Colombian pitcher in Teheran to the rotation. You'd have the two winningest Colombian pitchers in MLB history together, fwiw.

[knightni]

I can't see JR taking on $25 million in salary commitment for an aging Markakis (to send Melky to DH and bench Avi) AND sending even more money to ATL. I can't even remember the last time we sent $5 million to another team (maybe Linebrink to Atl?)

Actually, Atlanta would send the Sox 5 mil.

[caulfield12]

Actually, Atlanta would send the Sox 5 mil.

 

Umm...okay. Seeing as they just reported a $36 million loss, not sure if Liberty Media Braves group would agree with sending even MORE money out.

 

They still have to deal with the Olivera contract on the books, to name just one.

 

Then again, just biting the bullet and dealing Freeman and/or Markakis, at this point, it won't matter much either this season or next.

 

One would think, though, they'd like to have a few recognizable names to open their new stadium.

[GreenSox]

Adams, Danish, Hawkins, and Engel for Markakis, Teheran, and $5 million.

 

Which team would say no to that deal?

You're essentially trading those 4 for Tehran, a mid rotation guy. Pricey.

 

I wouldn't mind having Markakis (although before Avi's started hitting I was more interested), but a reason is that he should come cheap - he really has no trade value. See Rios c. 2012 who had a high salary and a OPS in excess of .700 and, rightfully, zero trade value.

Edited May 10, 2016 by GreenSox

[GreenSox]

That's not a total Kenny deal, that is a misconception. KW never gave away many pieces that were highly regarded like that, more often than not he traded prospects that just disappeared into other organizations

 

 

The only guy that he traded that ended up really good was Gio, and he used Gio as a trade chip twice and got some good players back.

He got A good player back for Gio: Thome. But that also involved Rowand and pushing out Frank Thomas.

Prospects are currency, and while the prospects didn't turn out so hot (although some are producing now), the returns Williams received didn't do a thing either. 2 playoffs in 12/13 seasons. The Sox can do better than the Lose-Lose approach under Williams.

 

[Lemon_44]

I'd see what it takes, probably not much, to get Ervin Santana from Minny. Tyler Danish and another mid-level prospect would probably get it done. His contract isn't prohibitive and fits in the Sox window.

[GGajewski18]

I'd see what it takes, probably not much, to get Ervin Santana from Minny. Tyler Danish and another mid-level prospect would probably get it done. His contract isn't prohibitive and fits in the Sox window.

 

Rather go after Teheran. More upside and fits the Sox long term plans too.

[hi8is]

I'd see what it takes, probably not much, to get Ervin Santana from Minny. Tyler Danish and another mid-level prospect would probably get it done. His contract isn't prohibitive and fits in the Sox window.

I went to a game in LA where he one hit the sox in a complete game or maybe it was 8 innings. He was dealing. Don't think he's still on the same level as when he was younger. That was a special game, even I gave him a standing O.

 

Edit: guess it was a complete game shut out but not a 1 hitter. Also happened to be his first career win. Funny.

Edited May 10, 2016 by hi8is

[GreenSox]

2 different players.

Santana is an aging, overpaid #5 starter (but a good #5, as of now) who you have to pay for 2 more years. He should be had for a middlin prospect.

 

Tehran is a 3/4, young, and the Braves will want a pretty price for him.

Tehran is much better...and far more expensive in terms of talent to the other team.

[caulfield12]

Fwiw, Santana was still reaching 94-95 MPH in his game against us.

 

That said, Nolasco's probably the one they want to give up.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I really think Markakis/Teheran is the combo that best fits what the Sox are trying to do right now. CarGo would be nice, but he'll be too expensive IMO.

[GGajewski18]

I really think Markakis/Teheran is the combo that best fits what the Sox are trying to do right now. CarGo would be nice, but he'll be too expensive IMO.

 

Markakis for 2 more years after this scares the crap out of me.

[Dunt]

Still think the bullpen could use an upgrade. Would love to see the Sox go after one of the Yankees relievers, Chapman in particular.

[caulfield12]

Chapman is probably going to be the most prized reliever on the market...and that's going to mean the Yankees can extract maximum value for him.

 

There's no way anything less than either Anderson or Fulmer gets it done. Adams+ alone won't do it. These situations where money doesn't matter to the trading team but prospects do will not end up going the way of the Sox.

 

Our one advantage here is being able to take on payroll for underperforming or expensive assets.

[Kyyle23]

Still think the bullpen could use an upgrade. Would love to see the Sox go after one of the Yankees relievers, Chapman in particular.

 

Thats a pipe dream, man. Chapman is gonna be their guy until he cant throw 100 anymore

[Y2Jimmy0]

I really think Markakis/Teheran is the combo that best fits what the Sox are trying to do right now. CarGo would be nice, but he'll be too expensive IMO.

 

 

What about Reddick and Doolittle from Oakland? What power LH relievers will be available because the Sox could use one.

[caulfield12]

This is where it would be nice to have the Cubs' farm system, lol. We could just target nearly ANYONE, Braun, Trout, Harper, doesn't matter, pretty much nobody would be off-limits completely.

 

Granted, Soler's not worth very much at the moment, Baez might be needed instead of using him as trade bait, but they have enough pieces remaining to make similar trades to what KC did last year adding Cueto and Zobrist at the deadline.

 

 

 

One would think the Yankees would prioritize moving Andrew Miller if they fall out of contention in July...keeping Betances and Chapman to build around for next year.

 

What would the Sox be willing to give up for him, though? It's going to be a pretty damned steep price. Brian Cashman still remembers Contreras and Quintana getting away...although in fairness, we gave them Swisher for nothing at least.

Edited May 11, 2016 by caulfield12