Early Trade Speculation

[OmarComing25]

Why would the Sox want to do that?

120 mill encumbrance for a 20ish HR guy.

 

Just get Markakis for salary relief.

 

Astros, after several years of hard work evaluating, drafting, and developing, are moving backwards, abetted by seriously dinging their farm system for "elite" level talent like Carlos Gomez (and others).

I'm not advocating for a Freeman trade, because I think the cost to acquire would be too much, but Freeman is definitely worth his contract. He's been worth an average of 4.2 WAR over the past three seasons. He's only 26 years old, is he a "hero" just because he got a big contract? Even this year, he has a career high walk rate, and though his strikeout rate is high, he has a 4.5% HR/FB rate, which is 10% lower than his career rate. He's hitting way more flyballs this year than usual, so if that HR/FB rate was at his career norm his batting line this year would look pretty good. He's a great hitter.

Edited April 27, 2016 by OmarComing25

[bmags]

With Jackson and Eaton, is improved outfield defense really the highest priority?

An adequate left fielder would be fine, if he provided the bat they need. Or Melky could stay in left, and they could acquire a DH.

 

It may have diminishing returns, but anything that somehow improves our pitching staff is still making us stronger.

[southsider2k5]

I'm not advocating for a Freeman trade, because I think the cost to acquire would be too much, but Freeman is definitely worth his contract. He's been worth an average of 4.2 WAR over the past three seasons. He's only 26 years old, is he a "hero" just because he got a big contract? Even this year, he has a career high walk rate, and though his strikeout rate is high, he has a 4.5% HR/FB rate, which is 10% lower than his career rate. He's hitting way more flyballs this year than usual, so if that HR/FB rate was at his career norm his batting line this year would look pretty good. He's a great hitter.

 

That is an awful lot of money for a fairly young guy to come here and be a DH. He isn't taking Jose's job.

[bmags]

Wait a second, Kiermaier isn't even a FA until 2021. Why would the rays do that?

[daggins]

The Stros should bounce back, but if they don't Rasmus is the guy i'm looking at. I kind of wanted him this offseason before he took the QO.

[Black_Jack29]

The Stros should bounce back, but if they don't Rasmus is the guy i'm looking at. I kind of wanted him this offseason before he took the QO.

 

Rasmus or Reddick would be great. The question is whether their teams will be bad enough to become sellers.

 

I don't see the Sox taking on Freddie Freeman's contract, even if he did agree to become a full-time DH.

 

[GreenSox]

The Stros should bounce back, but if they don't Rasmus is the guy i'm looking at. I kind of wanted him this offseason before he took the QO.

Well right now they essentially have 3 or 4 #5 starters in the rotation, so it won't be easy.

I see Devenski, a pitcher in KW's ill-advised trade for Brett Myers, is entering their rotation. He could help.

 

 

Reddick would probably be a good platoon hitter for the Sox, although I see little reason to believe that the As won't be in the West race...no one looks better than 85-88 wins in that division.

Hard to trust Rasmus.

Anyway, those type of trades usually don't help. But when something repeatedly fails, it's best to keep doing it.

[daggins]

Worked pretty well for the Mets last year.

 

Rasmus might just be in a career year, but that doesn't make it a bad investment.

[caulfield12]

Unless the Braves are going to eat $12-15 million, the White Sox aren't going to be interested in Markakis...not with three years remaining on that contract. Freeman's a non-starter financially, from the standpoint of making him or Abreu the full-time DH and also that Atlanta needs SOME continuity going into their new stadium...plus, the return wouldn't be what they wanted, it would be another salary dump, so they will hold onto him and hope his numbers will rebound (see Matt Kemp/Ethier/CarGo, etc.)

 

 

This probably is going to be another year where the contracts added are unusual situations (Middlebrooks forcing Youkilis out in Boston, Liriano wearing out his welcome in MN, Myers in Hou, Orlando Hudson in 2012) where their teams are willing or forced in the Youk situation to make personnel moves and the White Sox are willing to take on salary (more than giving up premier prospects). Or the more dubious Manny Ramirez acquisition in 2010.

 

Luckily, there's the LaRoche cleared money to cushion the blow there.

 

 

Wil Myers is an interesting name, depending on the price. Of course, the Padres would prefer to move Kemp's contract.

Edited April 27, 2016 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Nobody's running away with that AL West.

 

Houston isn't going to deal Rasmus, because he's one of the main reasons they're not further buried and he's on a one-year deal so they will wait until the last minute possible in July. They're not going to dump Gomez unless they're 100% convinced he's done, and that's not a risk the White Sox can afford to take with some of his character issues (when things aren't going well for him).

 

Plus, they already traded a pretty nice looking prospect in Domingo Santana to the Brewers...although there will be the typical interest circling around Tucker and Marisnick to a lesser extent if things don't right themselves in the month of May.

Edited April 27, 2016 by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

This one is out of left field, but what about the Marlin's Justin Bour? He's still fairly young, a LH power bat, and can be utilized in a platoon at DH. He did hit 23 HR's last year, but I have no clue how the Marlins view him as far as being available or not.

[caulfield12]

That guy is huge.

Another former Cub blocked by Rizzo.

 

Is a DH/1B worth Adams? He only has one homer this season (so far)...and a .777 OPS for his career.

 

Considering the league change, I don't think the White Sox would be willing to give up Adams unless it's going to be a significant upgrade over Garcia. Of course, Avi's lifetime OPS isn't even over 700 (.693), so one can argue about how valuable an upgrade he would be.

 

With how well the Sox are playing right now, they're unlikely to do anything to change up the roster chemistry on the offensive side unless they start to fall backwards to the .500 mark.

 

 

[SoxSteve]

That guy is huge.

Another former Cub blocked by Rizzo.

 

Is a DH/1B worth Adams? He only has one homer this season (so far)...and a .777 OPS for his career.

 

Considering the league change, I don't think the White Sox would be willing to give up Adams unless it's going to be a significant upgrade over Garcia. Of course, Avi's lifetime OPS isn't even over 700 (.693), so one can argue about how valuable an upgrade he would be.

 

With how well the Sox are playing right now, they're unlikely to do anything to change up the roster chemistry on the offensive side unless they start to fall backwards to the .500 mark.

Go get DAN VOGLEBACH from the Cubs and he solves a left handed bat issue and backup first issue as well. I think he can step in right now against righties and do a very good job. Won't upset the clubhouse because because sands is the odd man out not a everyday player. Doesn't sacrifice defense seeing he's a DH and wants to play it so no more of that " can't get used to DHing thats what i can't hit crap". And he doesn't cost us any of our top 3 guys to get him. Do a 3 way trade if the Cubs don't want what we have. And seeing the Cubs will trade him at some point why not to us? It s a no brainer in my book. He could be a lefty DH for us for the next 7-8 years on top of helping us now.

[caulfield12]

While that's logical enough for the White Sox, what's the incentive for the Cubs to help the Sox?

 

And there's still the question of what prospects we could package outside of the Top 3 that would attract not only the Cubs but other teams around MLB?

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...itting/2016/ALL

 

He's essentially a lesser version of Kyle Schwarber, but those minor league numbers are impressive. If I'm the Cubs, I might be tempted to get the most that I can for Schwarber next year (via trade, after proving he's recovered) and then plug Vogelbach into LF instead. Granted, they are going to have to figure out where they want to play Bryant, Baez, Almora, McKinney, Soler...at least three of those players SHOULD be traded to shore up other areas of weakness.

 

 

I'd agree that your option is much more palatable than Shuck, Fields, Davidson, Ishikawa, etc.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...itting/2016/ALL

There's also a chance for an unknown like Coats or even Nicky Delmonico in BIRM. He's been on an absolute tear recently.

Edited April 28, 2016 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

Nobody wants Vogelbach

[TheTruth05]

Nobody wants Vogelbach

 

+1

[BlackSox13]

Vogelbach or bust!

[Kyyle23]

Vogelbach or bust!

 

....says the Iowa Cubs

[caulfield12]

861 vs. 729 career MILB OPS, Vogelbach vs. Garcia (693 MLB)...pretty appreciable difference

 

Trayce Thompson at 748 (845 MLB) for comparison, 699 with LAD

Edited April 28, 2016 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

861 vs. 729 career MILB OPS, Vogelbach vs. Garcia (693 MLB)...pretty appreciable difference

 

You know what else is appreciable? Vogelbach hasnt played above AA except for his 17 games there this season. In fact, he has bounced between rookie ball and AA for the first three years of his minor league career, and really hasnt done anything that makes me say "OH MY GOD WE NEED THIS GUY AS OUR DH/BACKUP FIRST BASEMAN"

[southsider2k5]

You know what else is appreciable? Vogelbach hasnt played above AA except for his 17 games there this season. In fact, he has bounced between rookie ball and AA for the first three years of his minor league career, and really hasnt done anything that makes me say "OH MY GOD WE NEED THIS GUY AS OUR DH/BACKUP FIRST BASEMAN"

 

The crazy thing? Avi is just over a year older than Vogelbach. Despite his huge numbers, he has been a really slow mover through the Cubs minors, whereas Garcia was race through the Tigers system. Garcia made his major league debut at age 21, which Vogelbach was still in high A ball at the same age.

 

It makes comparing their numbers at the different levels hard to do.

[vandy125]

While that's logical enough for the White Sox, what's the incentive for the Cubs to help the Sox?

 

And there's still the question of what prospects we could package outside of the Top 3 that would attract not only the Cubs but other teams around MLB?

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...itting/2016/ALL

 

He's essentially a lesser version of Kyle Schwarber, but those minor league numbers are impressive. If I'm the Cubs, I might be tempted to get the most that I can for Schwarber next year (via trade, after proving he's recovered) and then plug Vogelbach into LF instead. Granted, they are going to have to figure out where they want to play Bryant, Baez, Almora, McKinney, Soler...at least three of those players SHOULD be traded to shore up other areas of weakness.

 

 

I'd agree that your option is much more palatable than Shuck, Fields, Davidson, Ishikawa, etc.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...itting/2016/ALL

There's also a chance for an unknown like Coats or even Nicky Delmonico in BIRM. He's been on an absolute tear recently.

 

Just saw him put one over the scoreboard a couple of days ago. That being said, I can't imagine him trying to roam LF. That would seem like a disaster.

[caulfield12]

He has 1,557 minor league AB's. Avisail Garcia has over 2,000 in roughly five minor league seasons. Worth noting is they had roughly the same number of AB's (215) in AA...

 

Vogelbach has had a pretty normal progression for a high school kid. Took him two years to get out of short-season ball (Northwest League and AZ), whereas the very top high school prospects almost always move in one year.

 

At any rate, the #20 prospect for the Cubs is probably not on the Top 20 list that Hahn and Company have compiled. And the Cubs aren't just going to give him away simply because he doesn't have a place to play in their organization, as much as it would be nice if the world worked that way for blocked players.

 

Looking at their careers, it's easy to argue Avisail needed more time in the minors, and the same can be said for Vogelbach, but at least his numbers offensively partially justify the quicker promotion/s. With Avi, it was more based on raw tools and projection/s, rather than actual results.

Edited April 28, 2016 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

He has 1,557 minor league AB's. Avisail Garcia has over 2,000 in roughly five minor league seasons. Worth noting is they had roughly the same number of AB's (215) in AA...

 

Vogelbach has had a pretty normal progression for a high school kid. Took him two years to get out of short-season ball (Northwest League and AZ), whereas the very top high school prospects almost always move in one year.

 

At any rate, the #20 prospect for the Cubs is probably not on the Top 20 list that Hahn and Company have compiled. And the Cubs aren't just going to give him away simply because he doesn't have a place to play in their organization, as much as it would be nice if the world worked that way for blocked players.

 

Looking at their careers, it's easy to argue Avisail needed more time in the minors, and the same can be said for Vogelbach, but at least his numbers offensively partially justify the quicker promotion/s. With Avi, it was more based on raw tools and projection/s, rather than actual results.

 

I am not sure where someone would look at the Vogelbach numbers and say he needed MORE time at each level.

[caulfield12]

Just saw him put one over the scoreboard a couple of days ago. That being said, I can't imagine him trying to roam LF. That would seem like a disaster.

 

 

Well, yeah.

 

If I was Epstein and Company, he'd be traded, so would Schwarber as soon as he'd re-established most of his value.

 

They do need a LFer still, and Baez, Soler, McKinney and Almora will all get cracks at it. Let the best man win, as they say. Almora probably needs to be playing CF to take advantage of his defensive ability, so it's possible if Almora hits adequately you move Fowler to LF as well, but that probably won't be happening in the middle of this season.