Rodon vs Nola

[Rowand44]

There isn't a GM out there who would take Nola over Rodon, even knowing what they know today. Let's not get crazy. Remember, Rodon could easily still be in the minors as one of the top prospects in the game.

I'm not sure this is true. I like Rodon a bit better but I still think you overrate his ceiling a great deal. It's pretty fair to compare them side by side and Nola as of right now is a better pitcher.

 

EDIT: And I don't want this post taken the wrong way. I liked Rodon a hell of a lot more coming into the draft and I still would take him over Nola but I'm sure there's more than a few gm's out there that would disagree.

Edited May 5, 2016 by Rowand44

[Chisoxfn]

This is exactly how I feel. Just give the dude another chance. His stuff for whatever reason was depleted a few years back but he bounced back pretty terrifically last year. I have no idea what he's capable of(I do think he can be a decent enough 5 though) but at least give him the opportunity to prove one way or another what he is. The Sox seem pretty against that though for whatever the reason may be.

This tends to be an area the Sox struggle with. They don't tend to have much patience to actually test their young guys (especially from a positional perspective so the Sox might get the benefit of the doubt with Johnson). They just aren't overly patient when it comes to prospects (unless you are talking about top prospects).

[hi8is]

You are comparing a guy who is probably a 55-60 on the 80 scale now, and that is probably as high as he is going to get. Rodon probably has the same grade now, maybe a notch lower at most, with a 75-80 ceiling.

 

Rodon did get to the majors quicker than Nola, and didn't have as much time to learn in the minors. Rodon's next start will be his 30th in the majors. Nola is at 20

Groovy.

 

That's better explained than just stating, "remember Rodon could easily still be in the minors as one of the games best prospects."

 

Surprising that Nola has a 121 ERA+ in 117 IP and Rodon, a 99 in 170 IP.

 

It doesn't seem likely that two extra months in the minors for Nola gave him the edge in producing better results in their respective MLB beginnings. In this respect, I still think it's an apples to apples comparison.

 

Looks to me that Nola's command and consistency with his out pitch have indeed led to an easier transition. The conclusion everyone including yourself has come to is that Rodon will jump above Nola once his slider and command become more consistent.

 

Edit: Let's just all hope we see that stuff come for him soon.

Edited May 5, 2016 by hi8is

[Kalapse]

I was a little surprised Gonzalez didn't get the call. I wonder if it had to do with him taking a ball off the face, or if there might have been a problem with how long he has been back at Charlotte. I would think he would have been good to go, but isn't there a time period after you have been sent back until you can be recalled again unless there is an injury? I would think he exceeded that, but maybe not.

A player optioned to the minors cannot be recalled for at least 10 days after the demotion, Gonzalez was sent to Charlotte on 4/27 so he's not eligible to be recalled until Saturday, 5/7. Of course if you place a Major League player on the DL during that 10 day span you can recall the guy no problem and the Sox did place Petricka on the DL today.

[gosoxgo2005]

Rodon, though he could be a very good pitcher one day (key word: could) will NEVER be a 75-80 pitcher. I say that with 100% definitiveness, and yes, I know it's opinion, and it's impossible to actually be definitive in this scenario.... a 75-80 pitcher is a Sale/Arrieta/Kershaw. If you think Rodon will get to that level you're drinking way too much White Sox koolaide

[Steve9347]

I think they'll both be great pitchers, but Rodon has the higher ceiling, while Nola has the higher floor.

Agreed 100%.

[caulfield12]

Let's also not forget the Phillies have nothing to lose this season and are playing quite relaxed...and they also face the Braves and Marlins quite a bit, although to say he's fattening up on the Mets (who weren't a very strong offense until Cespedes came on board) and the Nationals would be pushing it a bit.

 

Just a completely different environment in the two cities in terms of expectations right now.

 

It's why it was pointless to compare, say, Kip Wells' numbers with the Pirates back in the early 00's versus what he realistically would have done pitching for the White Sox.

 

And then the NL has those 5-6 pretty terrible teams (and had them in the 2nd half as well last year), compared to the relatively parity and strength of the AL. Pretty sure Nola's numbers don't stand up as well pitching in the AL (taking the DH out of consideration, that's obvious too)...

Edited May 6, 2016 by caulfield12

[lasttriptotulsa]

Rodon, though he could be a very good pitcher one day (key word: could) will NEVER be a 75-80 pitcher. I say that with 100% definitiveness, and yes, I know it's opinion, and it's impossible to actually be definitive in this scenario.... a 75-80 pitcher is a Sale/Arrieta/Kershaw. If you think Rodon will get to that level you're drinking way too much White Sox koolaide

 

The only thing that could hold Rodon back is his command. His 'stuff' has every chance to be as good as Sale's. He also has a better frame that should allow him to be a complete workhorse.

[southsider2k5]

The only thing that could hold Rodon back is his command. His 'stuff' has every chance to be as good as Sale's. He also has a better frame that should allow him to be a complete workhorse.

 

Exactly. This kid was projected to be the #1 pick for two years, before finally slipping to #3. His stuff is as good as it gets. He loses his release point from time to time, which kills him. It was his problem last year when he struggled, and found a fix with Cooper. He still loses it from time to time this year.

[caulfield12]

I'm not sure how his fastball is "as good as it gets." The slider, sure, no doubt.

 

The only way he can get away with throwing a more controlled 90-94 instead of 94-97 is by getting ahead in counts and having better command inside the strike zone. Unless he's now suddenly getting a lot more movement than before, the FB that I previously saw was relatively straight and not nearly so explosive as Sale's. It wasn't nearly the put away pitch that Chris' FB was/is, and part of that has to do with all the arm angles and funky motion/delivery Chris utilizes.

 

The best slider in recent years from a starter was probably Francisco Liriano's in 2006, before he blew out his elbow because of all the torque throwing that pitch 88-91 MPH. Rodon's is usually around 86-87.

 

He's going to still have to improve that change-up and be able to throw it at least 15% of the time to be a really dominant pitcher IMO.

Edited May 6, 2016 by caulfield12

[Thad Bosley]

The only thing that could hold Rodon back is his command. His 'stuff' has every chance to be as good as Sale's. He also has a better frame that should allow him to be a complete workhorse.

I 100% agree with this, which is why if he gets to that level, it becomes beyond maddeningly exciting and tantalizing to think of he, Sale and Quintana back-to-back-to-back in the postseason. What a force to be reckoned with! You'd bump that trifecta up against anyone's, I'd imagine. Now if we can just get to the playoffs to test this hypothesis!!

[gosoxgo2005]

The only thing that could hold Rodon back is his command. His 'stuff' has every chance to be as good as Sale's. He also has a better frame that should allow him to be a complete workhorse.

 

 

.... Except his stuff doesn't have every chance to be as good as Sale's.

 

People have thrown the word "raw" around with Rodon since I've been reading these boards. He's not really "raw" at all, in my opinion. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't a "raw" athlete someone who has great physical gifts, but lacks fundamentals/coaching? Because if that's what "raw" is, then that is NOT Rodon. He's been through a good college program, played on the Jr. National team or w/e, and has had a year of Coop's tutelage. He's not really "raw" at all.

 

I do think he'll improve, but he will never, ever be as good as Chris Sale. His slider might be a touch better, but his fastball is what it is at this point with respects to velocity for the most part. His changeup will hopefully one day become average, not close to Sale's. We're talking about the 2nd best pitcher in baseball over the last 4 years after Clayton Kershaw, a future HOFer. Rodon may crack the top 20 or so, but he'll never be anything close to Sale.

 

Please don't take this as me being a Rodon hater. I'm not. I think he's going to be a very dependable 2 in this league, maybe even a borderline 1. But to say his stuff has a chance to be as good as Sale's is lunacy, IMO.

[caulfield12]

As to the previous poster's point, the one thing that PTAC has always argued (and he's studied the physiology of pitching more than anyone here, and professionally) is that his command will be much harder to maintain consistently over the course of a game (and he's definitely got a much higher walk rate than Sale, one key difference) along with the fact he would be more susceptible to injury.

 

Of course, we've heard 1,000,000 times that Sale would have to fall apart over time because of his frame, inverted W, etc., since 2010...was a reliever instead of a starter, etc.

 

That said, Rodon is more reminiscent of a more durable Hector Santiago than Chris Sale at the moment. Somewhere in the middle. A #2 or possibly a 3. Maybe in my lifetime, the lefty that he's most reminiscent in terms of potential is Wilson Alvarez, and I believe Wilson had even more explosiveness overall across the board when he came to the big leagues than Rodon even. Alvarez threw a no-hitter and put up some impressive numbers but never quite managed to become the ace we all projected him to be.

 

Obviously right now it's easy to be a BIT down on him, to even wish we had Nola/Wacha instead of Rodon...time will tell. But I'll quickly agree that the odds of him being better than Chris Sale aren't that great.

 

 

[caulfield12]

And, despite everything just written, he's got a great amount of "veteran savvy" to his game...call it swagger, cockiness/confidence...he's a very composed/poised and mature young man, and part of that comes from being projected as the #1 overall draft pick for a couple of years and all the scrutiny that goes along with that as well as pitching in spotlight of the ACC.

 

That's one of his biggest positives. A 1-4 start won't affect him or "get in his head" like it might with Erik Johnson...to where it snowballs and he becomes more and more ineffective. It would be a shock if he doesn't rebound as the whether gets nicer in May/June, as most Florida kids respond better to the heat.

 

 

 

 

[knightni]

I was told that unless Johnson throws a no-no, today will 99% be his only start for now. Take that FWIW

I don't understand their short leash on Johnson.

 

He's no worse than Gonzalez or Danks right now. At least give him a chance to try and improve at the MLB level.

[caulfield12]

I don't understand their short leash on Johnson.

 

He's no worse than Gonzalez or Danks right now. At least give him a chance to try and improve at the MLB level.

 

 

Unless they have some "inside information" with team doctors/psychologists and just don't believe he possesses what it takes "between the ears" to be a consistently successful big league pitcher.

 

Cooper pulled the plug on Daniel Hudson after just 3 starts, and he had much more obvious stuff/ability than Johnson, who, considering his ideal size/frame, should be a workhorse who throws consistently in the low to mid 90's. Johnson looks a lot better on paper (especially his AAA results and even August/September run with the Sox) than he does in reality. Watching video, there's just nothing overwhelming or exciting that jumps out at you that makes you believe he's actually going to stick.

[ShandyMan]

Rodon, though he could be a very good pitcher one day (key word: could) will NEVER be a 75-80 pitcher. I say that with 100% definitiveness, and yes, I know it's opinion, and it's impossible to actually be definitive in this scenario.... a 75-80 pitcher is a Sale/Arrieta/Kershaw. If you think Rodon will get to that level you're drinking way too much White Sox koolaide

 

If Rodon will never be near a 75 pitcher, Nola will never be near even a 70.

[gosoxgo2005]

If Rodon will never be near a 75 pitcher, Nola will never be near even a 70.

 

I agree. He'll be a long time 3 with a couple of years where he's a 2. John Garland-type IMO

[Kyyle23]

I don't understand their short leash on Johnson.

 

He's no worse than Gonzalez or Danks right now. At least give him a chance to try and improve at the MLB level.

 

Because he hasnt been good, any time he has come up.

[caulfield12]

Jon Garland was more like a 3/4 for most of his Sox career with the exception of a couple seasons (2005 being one).

 

Not sure how good of a comp that one is.

[hi8is]

I agree. He'll be a long time 3 with a couple of years where he's a 2. John Garland-type IMO

sure as hell hope he turns out better than that! if your prediction does come to pass, Nola easily beats that out.

[Chisoxfn]

Because he hasnt been good, any time he has come up.

Last year he was good and in his rookie year he was good. The only time he was not good when he came up was the year we expected him to be the full-time starter (where his velocity, etc was down). Dude had good stats and looked the part a year ago. Now whether he is the same guy this year (given how he has had issues having consistent stuff year-over-year, that is really the question). If Johnson had his "normal" stuff, he's a quality big league starter. Big if though.