Robin Ventura sacrifice bunted with the 3 hitter in the 7th inning

[southsider2k5]

But, those odds couldn't possibly take into account in any more than a general way:

 

1) The fact that the White Sox bullpen was a complete mess and hardly a sure bet to hold a 1 run game at the time...along with the feeling that we were playing not to win but being a bit conservative/tentative. Sox typical aren't a contact or execution-oriented team.

2) The fact that Frazier would feel even more pressure to get the job done and expand his strike zone because of who was following him in the line-up.

3) The general vibe of the team with sac bunting over the last 3-4 years, which is that it has more often than not led to frustration rather than success.

4) The odds AFTER an event still don't account for the odds before the bunt of Cabrera actually being able to successfully pull it off, which definitely weren't that much better than 50/50 at best.

 

If you are going to argue feelings over stats, a manager has the best view of these situations. A fan is never going to have all of the between the ears type information.

[Dick Allen]

Shuck did have one of the two White Sox hits and did hit the ball pretty hard right at the SS.

 

Don't let facts get in the way. Bunting Melky was questionable, but not the fireable stupid offense many want to make it out to be. As soon as it was successful, the strategy was a non issue. Frazier screwed up. They were conceding the run. He couldn't even get a ground ball.

[bmags]

I just would prefer Robin field a less aggressive team in terms of stolen bases and bunts. If it's an extra inning game and we get a single, sure, bunt him over.

 

But in the 1st-7th innings, let it play. And unless you are rollins or saladino, stop trying to steal.

[shipps]

Shuck did have one of the two White Sox hits and did hit the ball pretty hard right at the SS.

 

Don't let facts get in the way. Bunting Melky was questionable, but not the fireable stupid offense many want to make it out to be. As soon as it was successful, the strategy was a non issue. Frazier screwed up. They were conceding the run. He couldn't even get a ground ball.

 

DA, the thought of firing Robin doesn't come just because of one mistake. Collectively its been a few years of him making poor managerial decisions and each individual bad decision becomes magnified now because it has added up in our memory.

[Dick Allen]

I just would prefer Robin field a less aggressive team in terms of stolen bases and bunts. If it's an extra inning game and we get a single, sure, bunt him over.

 

But in the 1st-7th innings, let it play. And unless you are rollins or saladino, stop trying to steal.

Running to stay out of the DP often results in a DP, but as far as bunts, I think Robin calls for less bunts than most manager.

[bmags]

Running to stay out of the DP often results in a DP, but as far as bunts, I think Robin calls for less bunts than most manager.

 

Wasn't that stat from 2 years ago though? Even if he calls for less than others, I'm 100% confident we'd generate more runs if he cut back even more. There have been a few tims this year where he called bunt and then the hitter got to 2 strikes, then the hitter got a base hit.

 

I'm fine with the Eaton bunting for base hits, but the sac bunts have been questionable.

[harkness99]

The problem with bunting was also that Frazier is not "contact" hitter.

 

When he hits it... it goes forever... but yeah.

[Buehrle>Wood]

The question is are the odds greater of one guy getting a single with one outs or getting either multiple hits or an XBH with no outs. Going off of the win expetancy earlier, the odds of winning actually went up with the successful sacrifice, so it was a statistically sound move.

 

No. You are adding that after the fact, in other words youre assuming a 100% succesful bunt in which both guys get over. If he hits a hr, our odds of winning go to 98%. That would be quite the statistically sound move.

[Dick Allen]

No. You are adding that after the fact, in other words youre assuming a 100% succesful bunt in which both guys get over. If he hits a hr, our odds of winning go to 98%. That would be quite the statistically sound move.

This thread was created and all of the arguing against it, was done after the fact. Once the bunt was successful, the White Sox odds of scoring increased. Since Melky has hit 3 HRs, the chances of him hitting one there were pretty slim. The graphic I saw was the chances of scoring a run do increase with a successful bunt. Your chances of scoring multiple runs goes down. All in all, considering the bunt was successful, the argument against was weak.

 

 

At least Robin did the right thing and started Saladino vs. the LHP on Tuesday. The managers of Soxtalk might have been hung with an L.

[Dick Allen]

If Frazier hits a groundball or SF, and the Sox win 1-0, I doubt this thread exists.

[caulfield12]

Except playing for a tie game (the likeliest occurrence in that situation) instead of a big inning on the road is pretty questionable, especially with the shape psychologically that the White Sox bullpen was in.

 

Now you can argue we won road/away games at Texas (Monday) and last night in completely improbable fashion when we were able to tie them up (3-1 now in extras) and had the BABIP "luck" of some quite fortunate DP plays, but you're not going to continue to beat those odds of more frequently losing a tie game on the road on a consistent basis unless you have the Yankees' or Royals' pens...and even those pens only go 3-4 deep in terms of really dependable guys, not 6-8.

 

 

Let's not forget that key number, the BAA for Harvey his third time through the batting order was .509.

 

509! It's the reason the NY Post thanked Ventura for "doing his former team a solid" the next day.

Edited June 2, 2016 by caulfield12

[Buehrle>Wood]

This thread was created and all of the arguing against it, was done after the fact. Once the bunt was successful, the White Sox odds of scoring increased. Since Melky has hit 3 HRs, the chances of him hitting one there were pretty slim. The graphic I saw was the chances of scoring a run do increase with a successful bunt. Your chances of scoring multiple runs goes down. All in all, considering the bunt was successful, the argument against was weak. At least Robin did the right thing and started Saladino vs. the LHP on Tuesday. The managers of Soxtalk might have been hung with an L.

No the argument started before Cabrera was in the batters box.

[southsider2k5]

Searching for the numbers on Baseball Reference... Sac Bunt attempts from 2012 to 2016 (Ventura's time at MGR)

 

Kansas City 218

Cleveland 209

Minnesota 202

Detroit 191

White Sox 161

 

Including all of the AL

 

Texas 265

Houston 245 (partial as an NL team)

Anahiem 242

Toronto 233

Seattle 222

Kansas City 218

Tampa 212

Cleveland 209

Minnesota 202

New York Yankees 193

Baltimore 184

Detroit 191

Boston 163

White Sox 161

Oakland 154

 

The idea that Ventura bunts too much is completely busted myth. It simply is not true.

[Buehrle>Wood]

From the gamethread:

 

Please no bunt

Do not bunt here

No bunt!

Is Melky batting third or ninth?

Glad we are bunting with Cabrera

(Last one was sarcasm if anyone couldn't tell)

 

Then even after theach bunt, but before Frazier pops out

 

I f***ing hate bunting here. Glad he got it down, but think it's a horrible idea with one of our best hitters up.

 

dumb move

 

 

[Hatchetman]

Well a bad team that never gets on base and is usually losing is not going to be in bunt situations very often either.

[shysocks]

Yeah as B>W says, you can't just look at the win probability after the bunt was laid down. Judge the decision when it was made, and factor in the likelihood of the hitter failing to move the runners AND making an out. That tilts it back out of favor.

[bmags]

In 2016, White Sox are 3rd in major leagues with 10 sacrifice bunts. In 2015 we were slightly above average in AL with 30.

 

He has been increasing in usage as a manager. I think he should stop that.

[shysocks]

In almost every situation, bunting with one of your most productive hitters is just a bad idea. Even if he's in an 0-for-x slump.

[southsider2k5]

In 2016, White Sox are 3rd in major leagues with 10 sacrifice bunts. In 2015 we were slightly above average in AL with 30.

 

He has been increasing in usage as a manager. I think he should stop that.

 

Baseball reference tells it a bit differently. We have attempted 17 Sac bunts which is 18th in all of baseball. Realistically the NL is hard to count because of the pitcher hitting, which is why I only looked at the AL in my numbers. This season only we are 3rd in the AL behind Anaheim (20) and Minnesota (18), and tied with Houston. KC is right behind us at 16.

 

Not sure if this link will work, but here is the run.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-ind...amp;submitter=1

[bmags]

Baseball reference tells it a bit differently. We have attempted 17 Sac bunts which is 18th in all of baseball. Realistically the NL is hard to count because of the pitcher hitting, which is why I only looked at the AL in my numbers. This season only we are 3rd in the AL behind Anaheim (20) and Minnesota (18), and tied with Houston. KC is right behind us at 16.

 

Not sure if this link will work, but here is the run.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-ind...amp;submitter=1

 

Mine was from baseballreference, no idea where the discrepancy is.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2016.shtml

Sort by SH in traditional batting.

[Dick Allen]

Except playing for a tie game (the likeliest occurrence in that situation) instead of a big inning on the road is pretty questionable, especially with the shape psychologically that the White Sox bullpen was in.

 

Now you can argue we won road/away games at Texas (Monday) and last night in completely improbable fashion when we were able to tie them up (3-1 now in extras) and had the BABIP "luck" of some quite fortunate DP plays, but you're not going to continue to beat those odds of more frequently losing a tie game on the road on a consistent basis unless you have the Yankees' or Royals' pens...and even those pens only go 3-4 deep in terms of really dependable guys, not 6-8.

 

 

Let's not forget that key number, the BAA for Harvey his third time through the batting order was .509.

 

509! It's the reason the NY Post thanked Ventura for "doing his former team a solid" the next day.

 

 

The score was 0-0, and if .509 applies to everyone, not just Melky who was 0-2 and not looking too good.

[harkness99]

Have you seriously seen other teams bunt with their clean-up hitters?

 

I think it's kind of been overblown...but I just can't remember ever seeing that.

[southsider2k5]

Have you seriously seen other teams bunt with their clean-up hitters?

 

I think it's kind of been overblown...but I just can't remember ever seeing that.

 

The answer is that it has happened 5 times in MLB this season, so far.

[harkness99]

The answer is that it has happened 5 times in MLB this season, so far.

 

that's certainly higher than I would have guessed.

[Dick Allen]

Bruce Bochy, who most consider a pretty good manager, had Melky sacrifice when he was roided up .346 hitting Melky.