Momentum in the AL Central...

[caulfield12]

Seems like every time the White Sox get swept (or lose three consecutive, in the Indians' series), we keep going in the opposite direction and our opponents use the positive feeling to elevate their level of play.

 

For example, the Tigers are now tied with the White Sox for 3rd place (and technically have the tie-breaker by virtue of head-to-head play) and we finally woke up McCann and Upton, who are continuing to blister the ball tonight.

 

If Brantley's going to be out for even longer and the shoulder won't allow him to hit for any power, the Tigers might be rising to the divisional favorite role if Michael Fulmer can continue pitching so well for a rookie, Verlander's back to 85% of the pitcher he used to be, Zimmerman gets through his injuries and Matt Boyd/Daniel Norris (Jays' trade for Price) can pick up the slack. Because that offense, especially with Upton on one of his streaks, nobody can stop it. Other than the Tigers' bullpen, that is.

 

Well, maybe the Indians, who might have the most balance, overall...that's what it will come down to IMO, Indians' pitching vs. Tigers' hitting.

 

The Royals were 5-1 in their subsequent six games after ripping through the Sox, but they also have lost five in a row now, something they didn't do all of 2015.

 

Cleveland (10-4 overall streak after losing the first game of DH in Chicago), for their part, fell on their faces, losing 3/4 against Baltimore before tearing through the Royals this weekend (play in Seattle now and are just starting a long road streak, like KC)...with a blown game by Ned Yost last Thursday in the series opener carrying all the way over through tonight's loss as all those pesky Piranhas are, not surprisingly, coming back to earth when not facing the White Sox (and Chris Young in the starting rotation giving up more homers, he would break the all-time record by plenty if he even got close to 150 IP).

 

Now we've put Detroit on a roll of their own and given them a needed boost of confidence.

 

It's one thing to go 3-12 in these games. It's quite another to completely revitalize/re-energize our opponents while we deflate ourselves as well as the fanbase.

Edited June 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[Panerista]

Momentum is only as good as your next starting pitcher

[caulfield12]

Deadpool, the obvious counterpoint to that is the Tuesday Rangers' meltdown game, the three consecutive bullpen meltdowns against the Royals (especially the 7-1 loss with 1 out in the bottom of the 9th) and the fact that Chris Sale and Jose Quintana are falling back into "form" or habit in terms of really struggling against AL Central foes.

 

If it was only about starting pitching, then you would expect that we would have won more than just a handful of Sale starts over the last month. You would expect that Jose Quintana wouldn't have the record he does when he was just being hyped for the Cy Young weeks ago.

 

How can you explain that? Random probability? Chaos Theory? "Bad luck" with Cabrera and Austin Jackson being out this past weekend. We had our three best pitchers going in that one, right?

 

So now we're going to face Ross, Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez with our three "worst" pitchers...and you expect we'll take 2/3 or sweep them to save Ventura's job?

 

 

Even with the Royals, you could just "feel" the momentum completely shifting over to the Indians as they fell apart the final three innings in Game 1. Now they've lost 5 consecutive for the first time in two years. That's not an accident or pure chance. Momentum and team confidence/chemistry go together like a hand in a glove.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[Panerista]

I made a stupid reply to a stupid thread. You got me.

 

The White Sox have been bad. it's not "momentum" or anything like that. When you don't get on base, you don't win.

[flavum]

They're going to have to do a good job of forgetting everything that's happened thus far this season- good or bad.

 

It's basically a four month season now with similar records for all four.

 

After the Nationals series, it's Royals-Tigers-Indians again. Time to start winning ballgames.

[caulfield12]

But there is a momentum you can feel when a team puts together a rally with 7-8 two out hits.

 

There's also a negative momentum of continuing to feel more and more pressure and the noose tightening with each blown opportunity with runners on 2nd and 3rd and less than 2 outs.

 

In Abreu's hitting, Sale and Jose's confidence, the entire bullpen...it's like the whole team has been hit by the Zika Virus but Eaton and Frazier were immunized.

 

Heck, even those guys have seen their batting average fall and have not been flawless on defense like the first month of the season.

[captain54]

Seems like every time the White Sox get swept (or lose three consecutive, in the Indians' series), we keep going in the opposite direction and our opponents use the positive feeling to elevate their level of play.

 

I think losing Melky for the series really hurt the Sox.. I think they would have, at least, won one of those games, as opposed to being swept.. I think there's a big psychological difference from being swept to losing a series…

 

The Sox play Central opponents an awful lot in September.. more so than any other month in the season….and that's gonna be the mantra of Hahn/KW, etc. to ward off the doubters..

 

But here's the thing….the Sox have no recent history, to my recollection… of putting the pedal to the metal and finishing a season like gangbusters.. their title year, 2005, had it's an almost historic collapse in the form of almost blowing a 15 game lead…until they miraculously pulled it out in the final weeks…

 

They have the ace in hole of being aggressive and maybe having a little $$$ to spend, in order to make it interesting come trade deadline…But with a killer schedule still remaining in June, and all of July left to play without reinforcements… it could all be a mute point…if in fact we have seen the "true" White Sox 2016

[CB2.0]

Zika virus? lol.

Settle down, man.

[caulfield12]

The White Sox didn't collapse as much as the Indians went on an incredible run, like the Twins in 2006 in the second half.

 

August 1st, the White Sox were cruising at 69-35, 15 games up on the Indians, who were 55-51.

 

That brings us all the way to the famous Riske/Crede Game on Tuesday, September 20th. The lead had been trimmed by 12 1/2 games to just 2 1/2 entering that night (if the Indians win tonight in Seattle, the shift would be 10 games in less than one month in 2016).

 

Indians went on a 33-11 run, playing .750 baseball for six weeks.

 

The White Sox ended up playing those final two months at 30-28...cruising through the final week after Jenks gave up that liner that ALMOST got over Konerko's head down the RF line and the Indians fell apart (including to the second string White Sox team) and missed the playoffs at 93-69. At their peak, they got to 88-62, 26 games over .500, during that span of time.

 

 

Historians will tell you that all the momentum in the world of that run by Cleveland was broken by Joe Crede's swing and a ball Grady Sizemore lost in the sun on a Sunday afternoon in KC that really shook up the Indians.

Edited June 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[harkness99]

We do seem to be the cure for what ails... but when it comes to the central division we have been that cure for about 5 years now.

[greg775]

Seems like every time the White Sox get swept (or lose three consecutive, in the Indians' series), we keep going in the opposite direction and our opponents use the positive feeling to elevate their level of play.

 

For example, the Tigers are now tied with the White Sox for 3rd place (and technically have the tie-breaker by virtue of head-to-head play) and we finally woke up McCann and Upton, who are continuing to blister the ball tonight.

 

If Brantley's going to be out for even longer and the shoulder won't allow him to hit for any power, the Tigers might be rising to the divisional favorite role if Michael Fulmer can continue pitching so well for a rookie, Verlander's back to 85% of the pitcher he used to be, Zimmerman gets through his injuries and Matt Boyd/Daniel Norris (Jays' trade for Price) can pick up the slack. Because that offense, especially with Upton on one of his streaks, nobody can stop it. Other than the Tigers' bullpen, that is.

 

Well, maybe the Indians, who might have the most balance, overall...that's what it will come down to IMO, Indians' pitching vs. Tigers' hitting.

 

The Royals were 5-1 in their subsequent six games after ripping through the Sox, but they also have lost five in a row now, something they didn't do all of 2015.

 

Cleveland (10-4 overall streak after losing the first game of DH in Chicago), for their part, fell on their faces, losing 3/4 against Baltimore before tearing through the Royals this weekend (play in Seattle now and are just starting a long road streak, like KC)...with a blown game by Ned Yost last Thursday in the series opener carrying all the way over through tonight's loss as all those pesky Piranhas are, not surprisingly, coming back to earth when not facing the White Sox (and Chris Young in the starting rotation giving up more homers, he would break the all-time record by plenty if he even got close to 150 IP).

 

Now we've put Detroit on a roll of their own and given them a needed boost of confidence.

 

It's one thing to go 3-12 in these games. It's quite another to completely revitalize/re-energize our opponents while we deflate ourselves as well as the fanbase.

 

I agree Caulfield. People think I'm crazy but I still contend our Central brethren "get up" for the Sox and the Sox wander onto the field like it's any other game and get their asses kicked. Then, fueled by the momentum of a sweep, our Central brethren keep kicking ass. This just carried over one more series for KC though. They mauled Tampa Bay then crashed. Five losses in a row now. I was telling people I know here that the Royals fans now will have a false sense of security after winning those three bulls*** games against the Sox. I said just cause you beat a horrible team (since Texas series we classify as a horrible team) doesn't mean you are playing well or can overcome all these injuries.

 

Nobody agrees with me, though that teams in the Central get up for the White Sox. I think they do. It's why so many of those teams throw at our hitters, as well. They wanna beat us and usually do. For some reason Minnie is the exception right now.

[pettie4sox]

The 2013 Indians made the WC because they absolutely dominated the Sox that year. They went like 15-4 or something.

 

Not sure why the Sox play poorly against division opponents not named the Twins.

[Vance Law]

The White Sox ended up playing those final two months at 30-28

 

Wish they would've fired Ozzie then.

[caulfield12]

Indians flying high now.

 

32-24.

 

CLE --

KCR 2 1/2 GB

CHW/DET 3 1/2 GB

 

 

7 game swing for the White Sox/Indians since the first game of that DH, and 9 1/2 games since Monday, May 9th (Frazier GS game, Jennings DP).

 

When the Sox were 33-20, the Indians were one game over .500 at 15-14 (net +7), KC 1 game under (net +4) and Det 3 games under.

 

The last four days the Tigers have gained those four games. But the Sox have shed 12 in the other direction.

[caulfield12]

Losing record in the AL Central 6 of the last 7 seasons. That "successful" season had them just two games over .500, but the Tigers and Royals wiped out any chance for the playoffs down the stretch that year.

 

2009 34-38 (AL Central records determine 1-5 in exact order)

2010 32-40 (Twins have most AL Central wins, White Sox go 15-3 in interleague to finish 2nd but 3rd overall in Central)

2011 32-40 (order of finish predicted exactly 1-5 by AL Central records)

2012 37-35 (Detroit and White Sox 1st and 2nd in AL Central records)

2013 26-50 (AL Central predicted 1-5)

2014 33-43 (AL Central predicted 1-5)

2015 32-44 (AL Central predicted 1-2)

2016 9-12 (AL Central in order 1-5, CLE 18-7, KC 13-9, DET 10-8, CHW 9-12, MN 5-19, with 4 wins against CLE)

 

 

98-118 under Guillen his final 3 seasons with CHW, 137-184 under Ventura, total of 235-302 (winning percentage of .437, or 71-91)

 

 

 

Under Robin Ventura, the White Sox are 146-196 against divisional opponents, a winning percentage of .427. If the White Sox only played the AL Central during that time period, they'd be 69-93 every season. Not even a 70 game winner. Only 1 winning season in AL Central, and that by just 2 games over .500.

 

By the way, the last time the team with the best record in the AL Central didn't finish first was that memorable 2006 season, a decade ago. Minnesota was just 41-35 and the Tigers were 45-30, but MN finished one game ahead. Of course the Tigers went on to the World Series that season.

 

So the AL Central division winner had the best record 9 out of the last 10 years (off by just one game in 2006) and then if you go back for 13 years it's 11 out of the last 13 (KC Royals had best record in the AL Central but finished 3rd to Twins/White Sox in 2003).

 

 

 

2009 10-8 vs. CLE, 9-9 vs. DET, 9-9 vs. KC, 6-12 vs. MIN

 

2010 9-9 vs. CLE, 8-10 vs. DET, 10-8 vs. KC, 5-13 vs. MIN

 

2011 11-7 vs. CLE, 5-13 vs. DET, 7-11 vs. KC, 9-9 vs. MIN

 

2012 11-7 vs. CLE, 6-12 vs. DET, 6-12 vs. KCR, 14-4 vs. MIN Division was lost against KC/DET

 

2013 2-17 vs. CLE essentially gave them the WC, 7-12 vs. DET, 9-10 vs. KCR, 8-11 vs. MIN

 

2014 9-10 vs. CLE, 9-10 vs. DET, 6-13 vs. KCR, 9-10 vs. MIN

 

2015 10-9 vs. CLE, 9-10 vs. DET, 7-12 vs. KCR, 6-13 vs. MIN

 

27-47 vs DET from 2011-2014

14-27 vs. KCR from 2014-2016. 36-60 vs. KC from 2011-2016

 

 

 

Overall from 2009-2016

 

vs. CLEVELAND 64-71 -7

vs. DETROIT 53-79 -26

vs. KC Royals 55-80 -25

vs. MINNESOTA 57-72 + 6-0 this year, 63-72 -9

 

We have a losing record over the span of 7 1/3rd years against ALL FOUR OF OUR AL CENTRAL DIVISION OPPONENTS!!!

Edited June 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

If momentum is so real, how come the Sox had none after they came back and beat the Mets after trailing 4-0, and won the next day in extra innings? E

[caulfield12]

How can it be explained for going on a decade that whenever this team plays critical AL Central opponents (especially in the 2nd half of seasons, but this year it has also happened in May), we consistently have folded like a cheap suit and typically those teams have just buried us with sweeps and long winning streaks against us (often after the White Sox played those teams well in the 1st half)...???

 

The only exception was/is 2008, and that was a war of attrition/survival...especially those last three games and then the Blackout Game.

 

We've certainly never played well on the road against AL Central teams in the 2nd half even in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012, when we had some of our better teams. Even the 2005 team was 30-28 down the stretch and was plagued by the KC Royals and Indians until the Riske game finally released the pressure.

Edited June 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[Lip Man 1]

The 2013 Indians made the WC because they absolutely dominated the Sox that year. They went like 15-4 or something.

 

Not sure why the Sox play poorly against division opponents not named the Twins.

 

I think it was actually 17-2.

 

Mark

[elrockinMT]

You can't live in the past. What is happening this season and what happened each season for the last 11 plus years can't be compared apples to apples. That is just depressing and basically giving up. We have four teams bunched up in the Central and four months left to play. No one has pulled away or shown signs of doing so. We have just as good a chance of winning this division as any other team. We can do it!

[footlongcomiskeydog]

The 2013 Indians made the WC because they absolutely dominated the Sox that year. They went like 15-4 or something.

 

Not sure why the Sox play poorly against division opponents not named the Twins.

 

 

It's not a big shock as to why the Sox are struggling against KC, Cleveland, and Detroit. Those 3 teams simply have more talent than the Sox. Cleveland and Detroit much more so. The Sox are just absolutely snake bitten against KC. That KC team has been decimated by injuries this year and they still have the Sox number. You could dress up KC's AAA squad in Royals blue and the Sox would still pee down their leg against them.

[caulfield12]

Elrockin, in all your time being a White Sox fan, why do you think it has happened?

 

Some here have attributed it to being "overly respectful/fearful" of the Twins on the part of Ozzie, Harrelson, etc. Getting "psyched out."

 

Since it's obviously a huge problem historically and indicative of current issues the team has (and has had), then wouldn't it be better to do some self-reflection and figure out a way to get beyond it...?

 

Team psychologist? Better advance/d scouting? Better international prospect development (particularly Latin America)?

 

It's not just the Tigers and Royals though, we're behind every AL Central team over a 7+ year period in head-to-head play. How can you as a fan explain that? Simply the fact that all those teams were better, had more talent? Reached their full potential, whereas the White Sox as a team and organization haven't?

 

I remember back in that 2001-2006 time period, we constantly heard how the "Twins were just lucky," but it was because they were so sound fundamentally (especially from a defensive standpoint) and allowed their more talented opponents to beat themselves. They also had really, really good bullpens at that time, fwiw. Recently, it has been that the Royals were "just lucky and outperforming their peripherals and predicted WAR, etc." at FG, and BP, and Pecota projections, etc.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[kitekrazy]

If momentum is so real, how come the Sox had none after they came back and beat the Mets after trailing 4-0, and won the next day in extra innings? E

 

It sure seems the lethargy is real.

 

[kitekrazy]

Elrockin, in all your time being a White Sox fan, why do you think it has happened?

 

Some here have attributed it to being "overly respectful/fearful" of the Twins on the part of Ozzie, Harrelson, etc. Getting "psyched out."

Since it's obviously a huge problem historically and indicative of current issues the team has (and has had), then wouldn't it be better to do some self-reflection and figure out a way to get beyond it...?

 

Team psychologist? Better advance/d scouting? Better international prospect development (particularly Latin America)?

 

It's not just the Tigers and Royals though, we're behind every AL Central team over a 7+ year period in head-to-head play. How can you as a fan explain that? Simply the fact that all those teams were better, had more talent? Reached their full potential, whereas the White Sox as a team and organization haven't?

 

I remember back in that 2001-2006 time period, we constantly heard how the "Twins were just lucky," but it was because they were so sound fundamentally (especially from a defensive standpoint) and allowed their more talented opponents to beat themselves. They also had really, really good bullpens at that time, fwiw. Recently, it has been that the Royals were "just lucky and outperforming their peripherals and predicted WAR, etc." at FG, and BP, and Pecota projections, etc.

 

They were better at fundamentals and their stadium had a lot to do with it. The problem when the Twins went into the post season their opponents could play fundamental baseball and had more talent.

 

[captain54]

You can't live in the past. What is happening this season and what happened each season for the last 11 plus years can't be compared apples to apples

 

When you have fundamentally the same organizational philosophy and same decision makers involved, and the same Chairman involved in day to day operations of the franchise..and a shuffling of management entirely disconnected to performance.. it's absolutely apples to apples...

[greg775]

It's not a big shock as to why the Sox are struggling against KC, Cleveland, and Detroit. Those 3 teams simply have more talent than the Sox. Cleveland and Detroit much more so. The Sox are just absolutely snake bitten against KC. That KC team has been decimated by injuries this year and they still have the Sox number. You could dress up KC's AAA squad in Royals blue and the Sox would still pee down their leg against them.

True dat.

Also I firmly believe they "compete" versus us and our team strolls out there and plays it like any other game and normally gets its ass kicked. This is a competitive sport damnit. Compete.