The Second Wildcard

[caulfield12]

Frazier's a mid 700's OPS guy.

 

Not sure if it was realistic to expect improvement switching from the NL to the AL, after his second half and he's 32 now.

 

Lawrie was much better earlier in his career in terms of WAR, but to expect better than this consistently, no way.

 

Saladino, sure, if he was playing everyday...you can see him 50-75 OPS points higher.

 

Garcia just sucks, don't care about his BA w/ RISP if he's only OPSing in the mid 600's. Jackson was 660's in OPS, right where most predicted.

 

Navarro and Avila, where predicted based on years of decline and injury.

 

Eaton has been overperforming, by and large.

 

 

That leaves this whole theory based on improvement from Abreu (which has already happened), Frazier (slight room for improvement but trending negatively except homers), Rodon and the injection of Tim Anderson (which, optimistically wasn't expected to be much above a 700 OPS number by even his biggest fans THIS YEAR).

 

It's very simple, replace Garcia and get at least one more potent bench bat...and don't put all your eggs in the Justin Morneau basket or it will be too late to course correct.

 

The bullpen needs another RHP. That's a HUGE problem at the moment.

 

 

And then Shields improving, but he can't get any worse. The White Sox SHOULD have won 2 of the 4 games he has started, so it's not like you expect them to win 3/4. 1/4 obviously isn't going to cut it, and that's probably what the number deserves to be, the rally from 7-0 down cancelling out today's blown game. And I wouldn't count on Gonzalez continuing to pitch as well as he has, either.

 

 

Rodon

Shields

Frazier (what higher OPS number can be realistically expected, though??)

Avi replaced (Morneau/trade)

Anderson doesn't get exposed offensively

RH reliever (veteran)

 

Perfect health and Jackson coming back and hitting the ground running where he left off offensively.

 

The same case can be made for every team in the division, and they've all gone through just as much if not more than the Sox. Let's just say we shouldn't bet Greg's house until they actually show they can win 2/3 series against non-MN Central opponents.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Frazier's a mid 700's OPS guy.

 

Not sure if it was realistic to expect improvement switching from the NL to the AL, after his second half and he's 32 now.

 

Lawrie was much better earlier in his career in terms of WAR, but to expect better than this consistently, no way.

 

Saladino, sure, if he was playing everyday...you can see him 50-75 OPS points higher.

 

Garcia just sucks, don't care about his BA w/ RISP if he's only OPSing in the mid 600's. Jackson was 660's in OPS, right where most predicted.

 

Navarro and Avila, where predicted based on years of decline and injury.

 

Eaton has been overperforming, by and large.

 

 

That leaves this whole theory based on improvement from Abreu (which has already happened), Frazier (slight room for improvement but trending negatively except homers), Rodon and the injection of Tim Anderson (which, optimistically wasn't expected to be much above a 700 OPS number by even his biggest fans THIS YEAR).

 

It's very simple, replace Garcia and get at least one more potent bench bat...and don't put all your eggs in the Justin Morneau basket or it will be too late to course correct.

 

The bullpen needs another RHP. That's a HUGE problem at the moment.

 

 

And then Shields improving, but he can't get any worse. The White Sox SHOULD have won 2 of the 4 games he has started, so it's not like you expect them to win 3/4. 1/4 obviously isn't going to cut it, and that's probably what the number deserves to be, the rally from 7-0 down cancelling out today's blown game. And I wouldn't count on Gonzalez continuing to pitch as well as he has, either.

 

 

Rodon

Shields

Frazier (what higher OPS number can be realistically expected, though??)

Avi replaced (Morneau/trade)

Anderson doesn't get exposed offensively

RH reliever (veteran)

 

Perfect health and Jackson coming back and hitting the ground running where he left off offensively.

 

The same case can be made for every team in the division, and they've all gone through just as much if not more than the Sox. Let's just say we shouldn't bet Greg's house until they actually show they can win 2/3 series against non-MN Central opponents.

 

Frazier turned 30 in February. He's not 32 now. He's been an .800 OPS guy the last 2 seasons. His average is way down, he doesn't have nearly as many doubles as he's had in the past either. He's solid at 3B, he's going to hit 35 home runs, and his BABIP is still an absurdly low .179.

 

[caulfield12]

Okay, for some reason I thought he was 32 instead of 30.

 

Maybe I was thinking of Dunn when he came here, around that same age.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to go from 800 to 750ish changing leagues...and based on the 2nd half of 2015. Obviously, if he picks his batting average up to the .230's/.240's and some of his "bad luck" on BABIP evens out, he could get back to 800, but that extra 50 OPS points might not make as much of a difference as we'd like unless we can get consistent contributions from our non-core hitters.

 

His defense in the last month hasn't been quite as stellar as the first 33 games, but it has been a welcome improvement to Gillaspie, there's no denying that. The position is solid, at the very least.

 

Or maybe I was thinking 32 and a free agent...and then you have a headache of a decision that with your heart is to extend a great guy like Frazier even though your logical saber statistical regression mind is saying no way.

 

And I'm not sure if there's an easy way to look it up, but USCF really tends to cut down on doubles because it plays so small and lots of teams are basically camping their outfielders near the warning track in "no doubles" mode, especially with the warmer weather. So I'm not sure how much of it's Frazier and how much the change from Cincy's stadium to 81 games at USCF. Would have to look at batted ball plot points/exit velocity/launch angles, etc.

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

There aren't a "lot of guys having underachieved". Frazier's average is way down, and Abreu is producing at a lower level than expected, but that's it. There are no surprises from the rest of the lineup, particularly those dumpster dive moves you called "surreal" in nature after they were all made in the offseason.

 

Nothing underachieving about what we've seen from Jackson, Rollins, Avila, Navarro, or even Lawrie this season, not to mention that from holdovers Avi and Shuck. Their output is exactly in line with their performances of recent years. There was no basis coming into this season to expect anything different than what we've seen.

 

You played the "oh, they just underachieved" card to defend and explain away the entire 2015 season. That dog is no longer hunting as we approach the midway point of the 2016 season.

 

 

So the team slogan has gone from "All In" to "All If". Terrific!

 

Nope, not bitter at all!

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Frazier turned 30 in February. He's not 32 now. He's been an .800 OPS guy the last 2 seasons. His average is way down, he doesn't have nearly as many doubles as he's had in the past either. He's solid at 3B, he's going to hit 35 home runs, and his BABIP is still an absurdly low .179.

His BABIP will stay that low because he either pops up, K's, or homers. Nothing in between.

[ptatc]

His BABIP will stay that low because he either pops up, K's, or homers. Nothing in between.

This is the issue with all of these NL hitters that come to the Sox. For some reason they see Comiskey and think it's easy to hit it out so they alter their swing. They do hit HRs but it messes everything else up.

[Dick Allen]

This is the issue with all of these NL hitters that come to the Sox. For some reason they see Comiskey and think it's easy to hit it out so they alter their swing. They do hit HRs but it messes everything else up.

I disagree. I just think it's luck or age, or just trying to do too much. Frazier and Dunn played in Cincinnati, a very similar launching pad to USCF.

[ptatc]

I disagree. I just think it's luck or age, or just trying to do too much. Frazier and Dunn played in Cincinnati, a very similar launching pad to USCF.

This is part of what I was saying. I don't think it's luck that they all become bad all of a sudden. None of them showed signs of age until they showed up in Chicago. It's probably due to switching to the AL and some combination of mental approach changes.

Edited June 24, 2016 by ptatc

[Thad Bosley]

Nope, not bitter at all!

Great comeback! We learned a whole bunch from it. You're on a hot streak! So now explain to us how it is you think the team will improve "tons" if Shields merely pitches "mediocre". One would think he'd have to return to the form of "Big Game James" and become a front line starter/ace type for the team to improve "tons". Just being mediocre doesn't seem like it would move the needle much, but I could be wrong. Let us in on how you reached your conclusion. Thanks!!

 

[Balta1701]

His BABIP will stay that low because he either pops up, K's, or homers. Nothing in between.

His BABIP will not stay at .179. That's absurdly low. Rob Deer had a career BABIP of .275 and he's always my go-to guy for what you just described. He had a season as low as .220, but his career still averaged out. The lowest full season BABIP on record is Aaron Hill at .196, here's the lowest BABIP seasons since 1945.

[southsider2k5]

Great comeback! We learned a whole bunch from it. You're on a hot streak! So now explain to us how it is you think the team will improve "tons" if Shields merely pitches "mediocre". One would think he'd have to return to the form of "Big Game James" and become a front line starter/ace type for the team to improve "tons". Just being mediocre doesn't seem like it would move the needle much, but I could be wrong. Let us in on how you reached your conclusion. Thanks!!

 

 

Ah Yes my biggest fan. I am not going to waste a whole of time explaining the obvious to someone who is looking to turn everything into a worst case scenario. If you can't see what improvement an average pitcher does at the back of this rotation, what exactly am I going to say to change your mind?

 

Go back to ranting about the last 35 years.

[lasttriptotulsa]

His BABIP will stay that low because he either pops up, K's, or homers. Nothing in between.

 

Nobody's BABIP ever stays that low. Pretty ridiculous to suggest otherwise. Dunn's career is .286 and even in his 2011 season it was .240.

[Y2Jimmy0]

His BABIP will stay that low because he either pops up, K's, or homers. Nothing in between.

 

 

You clearly don't understand what BABIP means or how it works. I'll let others explain.

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't think he's being literal guys. I think he's saying it's hard to improve it when all he seems to do is homer, K or popout. Meaning he does nothing to really improve his BABIP (by just getting a base hit every once in a while as opposed to a groundout, popout, flyout). Maybe confusing wording on his part but I think understand what he's saying.

Edited June 24, 2016 by soxfan2014

[Thad Bosley]

Ah Yes my biggest fan. I am not going to waste a whole of time explaining the obvious to someone who is looking to turn everything into a worst case scenario. If you can't see what improvement an average pitcher does at the back of this rotation, what exactly am I going to say to change your mind?

 

Go back to ranting about the last 35 years.

We are in Year #36, btw.

 

There's improvement from an average pitcher in the back of the rotation - noted. Just not "tons", as you originally indicated.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I don't think he's being literal guys. I think he's saying it's hard to improve it when all he seems to do is homer, K or popout. Meaning he does nothing to really improve his BABIP (by just getting a base hit every once in a while as opposed to a groundout, popout, flyout). Maybe confusing wording on his part but I think understand what he's saying.

This is what I was trying to hint at, thanks for clarifying.

 

I know K's don't literally figure into BABIP, but it's going to be hard for Frazier to increase his numbers unless he starts making more consistent contact other than the occasional homer.

[flavum]

Big win, and the Tigers and Royals lost too.

 

Red Sox tied the Rangers with two out in the 9th, then won. Huge for them.

Edited June 25, 2016 by flavum

[flavum]

Good day for the wildcard situation, causing false hope, front office confusion, and ultimate disappointment.

[caulfield12]

The problem with the WC equation now is the Astros...they are on a 22-9 run right now, and have a plentiful minor league system to draw from to make more moves at the deadline.

 

So that leaves Boston/Balt/Toronto/NYY...KC/DET/CHW...and then the Astros and Mariners fighting for two spots. It certainly doesn't feel like we have a 2/8 chance of making it right now, more like 1/2 that, maybe 12.5%.

 

With Cleveland playing the Braves, the division lead is likely to widen even further this week. Theoretically, we should take 2/3 from the Twins, but then we've got the Astros. Royals and Cardinals play 2 and 2, home and away.

[flavum]

Tor 41-36 --

KC 39-35 0.5

Hou 39-37 1.5

Sea 38-38 2.5

Sox 38-38 2.5

Det 38-38 2.5

NY 37-37 2.5

 

This week:

 

Blue Jays - 3 at Col, 4 vs Cle

Royals - 2 vs StL, 2 at StL, 3 at Phi

Astros - 3 at LAA, 3 vs Chi

Mariners - 2 vs Pit, 4 vs Bal

White Sox - 3 vs Min, 3 at Hou

Tigers - 2 vs Mia, 4 at TB

Yankees - 4 vs Tex, 3 at SD

 

Need NL teams to help us out, and the Sox to win 5 games this week.

[caulfield12]

Tor 41-36 --

KC 39-35 0.5

Hou 39-37 1.5

Sea 38-38 2.5

Sox 38-38 2.5

Det 38-38 2.5

NY 37-37 2.5

 

This week:

 

Blue Jays - 3 at Col, 4 vs Cle

Royals - 2 vs StL, 2 at StL, 3 at Phi

Astros - 3 at LAA, 3 vs Chi

Mariners - 2 vs Pit, 4 vs Bal

White Sox - 3 vs Min, 3 at Hou

Tigers - 2 vs Mia, 4 at TB

Yankees - 4 vs Tex, 3 at SD

 

Need NL teams to help us out, and the Sox to win 5 games this week.

 

5 of 6 with Sale only starting one of those games is really pushing it. Would just be happy with 4-2, with 3-3 the most likely scenario.

[SCCWS]

The problem with the WC equation now is the Astros...they are on a 22-9 run right now, and have a plentiful minor league system to draw from to make more moves at the deadline.

 

So that leaves Boston/Balt/Toronto/NYY...KC/DET/CHW...and then the Astros and Mariners fighting for two spots. It certainly doesn't feel like we have a 2/8 chance of making it right now, more like 1/2 that, maybe 12.5%.

 

With Cleveland playing the Braves, the division lead is likely to widen even further this week. Theoretically, we should take 2/3 from the Twins, but then we've got the Astros. Royals and Cardinals play 2 and 2, home and away.

 

I think the Sox catch the Royals next week to 10 days. They are almost as bad as the Twins playing on the road. 2nd place should be the goal for the break.

[Dunt]

5 of 6 with Sale only starting one of those games is really pushing it. Would just be happy with 4-2, with 3-3 the most likely scenario.

 

Nope. You have Q, Shields, and Rodon going against the Twins and then Gonzalez, Sale, and Q against the Stros. Very doable to go 5-1 in that stretch. They will have 3 wins from the first series alone.

[SoCalSox]

8-4 going into the ASB would be very solid. Would set them up to get Morneau back for the Anaheim series, Jackson back shortly after that & hopefully another bat & pen arm for the stretch. This team has shown, even when they are down, they are still going to hover right around .500 give or take 3-5 games. Goal from here on out should be to go 10 games over the rest of the way out & hope that's good enough for a playoff spot.

 

FWIW, I do think Cleveland wins the division & for whatever reason, I see KC falling off before Detroit.

[Thad Bosley]

8-4 going into the ASB would be very solid. Would set them up to get Morneau back for the Anaheim series, Jackson back shortly after that & hopefully another bat & pen arm for the stretch. This team has shown, even when they are down, they are still going to hover right around .500 give or take 3-5 games. Goal from here on out should be to go 10 games over the rest of the way out & hope that's good enough for a playoff spot.

 

FWIW, I do think Cleveland wins the division & for whatever reason, I see KC falling off before Detroit.

This team is .500 at nearly the midpoint of the season, and the record is only that good due to the astronomical performance of Chris Sale thus far in the first half. Not to mention, but the Sox are also 7.5 games out at the moment. The dumpster dive likes of Morneau and Jackson aren't going to do much to improve on that, much less contribute to the team magically playing 10 games over the rest of the way.

 

Let's face it - the Sox are essentially the same 73, 76 win team from the past couple of years. Nothing much has changed if you think about it. Offense is still putrid, defense is better, pitching is ok. Once Sale comes back down to earth a bit, the team is going to settle into a state of mediocrity along the likes of what we've seen in recent years. I know there are some who still insist on playing the "Well, if...." game and what not, but, I don't know. It still feels like 2014 and 2015 to me. I hope I'm wrong.

 

Meanwhile, I heard Steve Stone on a broadcast from a show he did on the Score last week, and he was suggesting that in a month from now, the two Sox' - White & Red - could make interesting trade partners, with the White Sox having Jose Quintana to offer up, and Boston loaded with several blue chip, elite position prospects like Moncada and Benintendi who are currently blocked by other sensational position players already on the Red Sox roster. Unless as the poster suggested the team starts turning things around real soon and playing at a level significantly above .500, it's trades like these that will soon have to start being seriously considered by the White Sox.