The Second Wildcard

[caulfield12]

Yes.

 

We might have a slightly better record, but our positioning against TOR/BOS/HOU isn't as strong as it was against BALT/MIN last year at this time.

 

We also had a seven game winning streak and were about the same number of games back in the wild card race last year at the end of July and stood pat.

 

The only difference is that 23 7/9ths - 10 start where we were up 6/7/8 games on the rest of the AL Central (contending teams).

 

Makes perfect sense Burdi, Morneau and Jackson would be our "acquisitions" since Burdi represents the return on not dealing Shark last year at this time.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

4.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot at the break. With the way Toronto & Red Sox are playing right now, I'm feeling less optimistic about our chances. Honestly, I'm starting to lean towards selling, but obviously you give it a couple of weeks before you make any significant moves, buy or sell.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

4.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot at the break. With the way Toronto & Red Sox are playing right now, I'm feeling less optimistic about our chances. Honestly, I'm starting to lean towards selling, but obviously you give it a couple of weeks before you make any significant moves, buy or sell.

Agree. We're done in the division. Now 4.5 GB in the second wild card. We do hold the tie breakers over those two but this team just to keep pace needs to be aggressive. It sucks they couldn't at least tread water during that 10-26 stretch. That stretch basically will cost them a shot at the playoffs. Hopefully they give it two weeks and see where they're at. If they're out of it then they need to sell.

[TheTruth05]

Sox should be aiming at the division. Wild Card is looking so much tougher and even though they're out 7 games Cleveland has really cooled off. With that said I don't even know who they would sell off that would bring any value besides the core guys. Might as well stand pat.

[Chicago White Sox]

Sox should be aiming at the division. Wild Card is looking so much tougher and even though they're out 7 games Cleveland has really cooled off. With that said I don't even know who they would sell off that would bring any value besides the core guys. Might as well stand pat.

If I'm selling, I'm immediately putting Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Robertson, & Duke on the market. All of them should have some value and aren't long-term guys. I'd also consider moving Quintana, but would have to blown away to make a deal. Point is we actually have a lot of tradable assets that could help replenish the system. The major league team would be pretty awful if you moved all or most of those guys, but I think it puts you in better spot by 2018 than losing all these guys to free agency.

[GreenSox]

Sox should be aiming at the division. Wild Card is looking so much tougher and even though they're out 7 games Cleveland has really cooled off. With that said I don't even know who they would sell off that would bring any value besides the core guys. Might as well stand pat.

I agree that the division is at least as attainable as the wild card.

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Sox should be aiming at the division. Wild Card is looking so much tougher and even though they're out 7 games Cleveland has really cooled off. With that said I don't even know who they would sell off that would bring any value besides the core guys. Might as well stand pat.

They suck in the division with the exception of Minnesota. That's why I've conceded it.

 

You'd sell Melky, Robertson, Frazier and Lawrie. Then maybe Quintana but like CWS said, we'd need blown away to move a guy of Qs caliber. Give me Betts or Bradley Jr, Moncada, Benintendi and Swihart or Devers and you got a deal. You could always wait until the offseason to move Q. Sale would be an offseason move along with Abreu. Basically keep a young core of Eaton, Anderson, Rodon. You'd have young impact prospects in the system who aren't too far off. Basically try and compete in 2018 and beyond. You'd be built for long term as well.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I agree that the division is at least as attainable as the wild card.

I would agree if they played better against the divison.

 

The wild card isn't out of reach but this weekend hurt it.

[caulfield12]

The Indians are 3-6 in their last 9.

 

Not sure if that exactly constitutes a free fall. Brantley's starting his minor league rehab assignment within the next 24-48 hours.

[TheTruth05]

If I'm selling, I'm immediately putting Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Robertson, & Duke on the market. All of them should have some value and aren't long-term guys. I'd also consider moving Quintana, but would have to blown away to make a deal. Point is we actually have a lot of tradable assets that could help replenish the system. The major league team would be pretty awful if you moved all or most of those guys, but I think it puts you in better spot by 2018 than losing all these guys to free agency.

 

I just don't think that would bring back much. Maybe Robertson and Duke but Frazier just creates a hole for next year and we wouldn't get much in return since he's really not having a great year besides HRs. Melky might bring something too is Sox will take on some money for a good prospect. Besides that would just be the core and guys gone after this year who have sucked anyway.

[Chicago White Sox]

I just don't think that would bring back much. Maybe Robertson and Duke but Frazier just creates a hole for next year and we wouldn't get much in return since he's really not having a great year besides HRs. Melky might bring something too is Sox will take on some money for a good prospect. Besides that would just be the core and guys gone after this year who have sucked anyway.

If you trade these guys, you're definitely punting 2017 and probably 2018. But if we lose Frazier, Melky, & Lawrie after next year, are you really any worse off? Also, I expect this to be a seller's market and we'd have some of the more attractive chips available. A guy like Frazier isn't having a great year, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't be one of the best power bats on the trade market. There are going to be very few perfect players (if any) available.

[TheTruth05]

If you trade these guys, you're definitely punting 2017 and probably 2018. But if we lose Frazier, Melky, & Lawrie after next year, are you really any worse off? Also, I expect this to be a seller's market and we'd have some of the more attractive chips available. A guy like Frazier isn't having a great year, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't be one of the best power bats on the trade market. There are going to be very few perfect players (if any) available.

 

They're definitely worth dangling out there, I will say that. If someone is serious about picking them up the return should be nice but if they stand pat I won't blame them unlike last year.

[chisox802]

This team really should sell. The only way they have a chance is to bring in a big bat, which I don't see how that is going to happen.

 

I actually think the division is more feasible than a wild card spot. Obviously, for that to happen we would have to play well against them.......

 

A west coast trip and then the 4 against the tigers and 4 against the cubbies could determine the future of this team.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

This team really should sell. The only way they have a chance is to bring in a big bat, which I don't see how that is going to happen.

 

I actually think the division is more feasible than a wild card spot. Obviously, for that to happen we would have to play well against them.......

 

A west coast trip and then the 4 against the tigers and 4 against the cubbies could determine the future of this team.

I disagree because they suck against everyone in the central except MIN.

[caulfield12]

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnis...tions/86974920/

 

Tigers in almost the exact same position as the White Sox. Their most desired trade assets are key parts of their "two year plan" which goes through 2017...they also are stuck with $38 million in bad contracts for Sanchez and Lowe, not to mention the Verlander/Cabrera contracts keeping them permanently suspended in "win now" mode.

 

So you've got the White Sox, Tigers, Royals and Yankees that are "stuck" in a position where adding anything of significance might not make any sense financially or prospects surrended-wise.

 

You've got Baltimore, Boston, Toronto (depleted minor leagues but drawing huge crowds so the revenue's there to make at least one move), Cleveland, Texas and Houston really looking to make a move. And Angels are also basically "stuck" for a number of reasons.

 

That leaves the Seattle Mariners as the one big mystery team in this wild card race, because they already have Cano/Cruz and a gold mine with their new ROOT tv deal providing them $118 million per season.

 

OAK, TB and MIN are your three rosters to pick from on the AL side.

[southsider2k5]

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnis...tions/86974920/

 

Tigers in almost the exact same position as the White Sox. Their most desired trade assets are key parts of their "two year plan" which goes through 2017...they also are stuck with $38 million in bad contracts for Sanchez and Lowe, not to mention the Verlander/Cabrera contracts keeping them permanently suspended in "win now" mode.

 

So you've got the White Sox, Tigers, Royals and Yankees that are "stuck" in a position where adding anything of significance might not make any sense financially or prospects surrended-wise.

 

You've got Baltimore, Boston, Toronto (depleted minor leagues but drawing huge crowds so the revenue's there to make at least one move), Cleveland, Texas and Houston really looking to make a move. And Angels are also basically "stuck" for a number of reasons.

 

That leaves the Seattle Mariners as the one big mystery team in this wild card race, because they already have Cano/Cruz and a gold mine with their new ROOT tv deal providing them $118 million per season.

 

OAK, TB and MIN are your three rosters to pick from on the AL side.

 

 

The Tigers are a freaking time bomb. They have $176m on the books for 2017 already, and at least $100m on the books every season through 2019. Even 2020 has >$80m on the books because of just 3 players, plus Prince.

[caulfield12]

Yes, the White Sox have much more flexibility and could actually pull off a rebuild a lot more effectively than the Tigers.

 

The main similarity is both teams seem to be "stuck" going into the final two weeks of July with no clear direction to go in...same applies to Kansas City as well, who will look to go "all in" at the beginning of 2017 or have the greatest sell-off in the history of the MLB in July next year (for one team):

 

Cain

Hosmer

Moustakas

Wade Davis

Volquez

Duffy

Escobar

 

That's almost the equivalent of this year's free agent class coming from just one individual team.

[flavum]

Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, Indians

 

6 teams for 5 spots.

 

3 or 4 teams can pretend they're still in it, but they aren't. This will wash out over the next 10 days.

[Chicago White Sox]

4.5 games back for the second wild card. Rick Hahn said he's looking for a bat, but it's a sellers' market which is obviously not good for us. While I think Morneau & Fulmer will help some, I just don't see how we can cut that gap without a major offensive addition and probably another bullpen arm. The system is in really bad shape right now. Spencer Adams is about the only guy other than Fulmer that could be a headliner for an impact player. Unfortunately, his performance this year has probably cooled a lot of teams on him. It really seems like we don't have the muscle to get the pieces we need right now.

 

I'd love for someone make me feel more optimistic about our situation, but I really can't see an argument. Honestly, if it's a sellers' market then we should be selling. Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Robertson, & Duke all have value and right now is the ideal time to deal them if we want to optimize the returns. The problem with that means the beginning of a rebuild, because you will have decimated your offense and key parts of your bullpen. I really don't want to endure a lengthy rebuild, but I don't see the alternative. Several key guys will be gone after the 2017 season or will need to be extended, which would eat up a lot of our financial flexibility. The next two free agents classes look terrible, forcing us to improve from within or via the trade market. Unfortunately, with a bottom 5 system, that will be difficult to pull off. I love our draft class this year, but it's going to take several years before we bare those fruits and will take several more classes like that before we rebuild our system.

 

We have three years left of control of our single most important asset in Chris Sale. If I felt ownership & the front office would and could do whatever it takes to make us legit playoff contenders, I would say go for it. But after watching them miss on numerous targets this offseason and knowing how difficult it will be to improve the roster over the next years (for the reasons mentioned above), I don't have faith they can pull it off and we will just waste the rest of Sale's years with us. I know this is a hard discussion to have, but I really think it's time to finally consider a full-fledged rebuild.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

This team is fools gold and finished. They won't win the wild card. They'll win about 82 games max.

[flavum]

This team is fools gold and finished. They won't win the wild card. They'll win about 82 games max.

 

Yep. 79 wins, plus or minus 2, based on the last week of meaningless games vs Rays and Twins.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Yep. 79 wins, plus or minus 2, based on the last week of meaningless games vs Rays and Twins.

If they win 79 games it's time to blow it up, including the front office. 3 win improvements won't cut it.

[flavum]

If they win 79 games it's time to blow it up, including the front office. 3 win improvements won't cut it.

 

I don't know if there is an actual win total that matters whether they should blow things up. Out of the playoffs is out of the playoffs. To me, 76-86 or 86-76 is the same thing if you're going home.

 

That said, I think the Sox will be 77-78 or 78-77 with a week left, and they'll play the Rays and Twins 7 games at home that won't mean anything to anyone. They'll probably be shutting Sale down after 32 starts.

[GGajewski18]

I don't know if there is an actual win total that matters whether they should blow things up. Out of the playoffs is out of the playoffs. To me, 76-86 or 86-76 is the same thing if you're going home.

 

That said, I think the Sox will be 77-78 or 78-77 with a week left, and they'll play the Rays and Twins 7 games at home that won't mean anything to anyone. They'll probably be shutting Sale down after 32 starts.

 

I understand not making the playoffs at either record, but if you are 86-76 and not make the playoffs, you're probably a player or two away rather than 4-5 players at 76-86. Also, injuries play into this as well.

[captain54]

I understand not making the playoffs at either record, but if you are 86-76 and not make the playoffs, you're probably a player or two away rather than 4-5 players at 76-86. Also, injuries play into this as well.

 

A good bet would be a .500 finish for the 2016 Sox. This team is just terribly inconsistent. Not terribly crappy, but not terribly good. When all is said and done, the FO will deem the season a success, because of the improvement from 2015. Selling off the "core" would send Kenny Hahn into a state of delirium and panic, of which they would never recover.