Blow It Up

[Y2Jimmy0]

The Sox have committed too much money and have too much talent in the clubhouse to blow it up right now. I'd say that they're at least 12 months from that point.

 

If I were in Hahn's position, I'd sign Rodon, Lawrie, and Frazier (assuming that he starts hitting again) to extensions this winter and do what I can to address DH, C, and CF. If the Sox are struggling in July of 2017, I'd seriously consider dealing Sale, Robertson, and Jones to the highest bidders at the deadline. I wouldn't do a full rebuild, as they should have enough of a core at that point to compete in 2019. That core would include Quintana, Rodon, Fulmer (hopefully), Eaton, Anderson, and Frazier (see above).

 

If I were JR, I'd look to replace Kenny with Hahn and hire a new GM in the winter of 2017/2018. I'm assuming that Renteria will be our opening day manager in 2017 and I'd keep him and his staff in place during the partial rebuild.

 

 

THere's no way that Rodon is signing an extension and I very much doubt that Renteria is managing next season. Sandy Alomar much more likely in my opinion.

[Black_Jack29]

THere's no way that Rodon is signing an extension and I very much doubt that Renteria is managing next season. Sandy Alomar much more likely in my opinion.

 

You may be right about Rodon, but young pitchers are far more inclined than position players to to take the big payday when they can. Sale and Q both did. Injuries frequently destroy pitching careers.

 

I disagree with you about Renteria. He was clearly (to me) brought in here to eventually replace RV, as he's had decent success as a manager and is fluent in Spanish. When JR fires (or "promotes") RV this winter, I guarantee you that Renteria will be offered the job. Whether or not he takes it may be a different story.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

You may be right about Rodon, but young pitchers are far more inclined than position players to to take the big payday when they can. Sale and Q both did. Injuries frequently destroy pitching careers.

 

I disagree with you about Renteria. He was clearly (to me) brought in here to eventually replace RV, as he's had decent success as a manager and is fluent in Spanish. When JR fires (or "promotes") RV this winter, I guarantee you that Renteria will be offered the job. Whether or not he takes it may be a different story.

 

 

Carlos Rodon has Scott Boras as an agent. I think it's very unlikely even though I'd be trying to lock down something right now.

 

Sandy Alomar was choice #1 for Bench coach and he declined out of respect for Ventura. I believe and will believe until it's not that he's the next permanent manager of the White Sox

[flavum]

He should clearly be the AL favorite though. It's not that close either.

 

It's not gospel, but the ESPN Cy Predictor doesn't have Quintana in the top 10 now.

 

Sale would win today, as he should, but Hamels and few other guys will be there at the end of the season. Q won't.

Edited June 20, 2016 by flavum

[harfman77]

The Sox suck, they haven't made the playoffs in blah, blah, blah. Hahn and KW are horrible. They don't know what they are doing.

 

Here's how you fix it. Have the guys you don't think you know what they are doing trade away all their good players for prospects. That will work out perfectly. Another 10-20 years of daily whining.

 

All you need to know about prospects is to go back to the Matt Davidson thread. He was called the best available 3rd base prospect. A can't miss. Hahn was praised for his new core which included Davidson and Avi Garcia. A guy the main concern was to avoid the super 2. That cost Addison Reed. A loss, but not a Chris Sale, Q type loss.

 

Keep the good players. Draft better. Sign foreign free agents. Develop better. Learn how to make decent trades. Blow it up is not wise.

 

The problem with this approach is that by the time the kids you draft and sign as foreign free agents are going to be ready to contribute, your good players are going to be FA's. So it is either move them now when they have a lot of value or roll the dice at being able to re-sign them and if you can't there is a risk that they will walk away and you get nothing in return with the impending CBA negotiations.

[Y2Jimmy0]

It's not gospel, but the ESPN Cy Predictor doesn't have Quintana in the top 10 now.

 

Sale would win today, as he should, but Hamels and few other guys will be there at the end of the season. Q won't.

 

 

Well congrats. I don't think ESPN is a viable news outlet. Quintana has accumulated a 3.1 fWAR with a ERA of 2.63 and a 2.60 FIP. Corey Kluber is the next closest. If their system doesn't have him in or near the top, then their system is a f***ing joke that shouldn't be taken seriously.

[GreenSox]

Well I certainly would put Robertson and Frazier up for sale in July. Then see where they stand after the season.

 

 

[Black_Jack29]

Carlos Rodon has Scott Boras as an agent. I think it's very unlikely even though I'd be trying to lock down something right now.

 

If Rodon wants to take the money early, he'll do it regardless of what Boras wants. Rodon has been pretty solid for a young pitcher so far, but has not exactly been setting the world on fire, which reduces his leverage.

 

Regardless, Rodon can't hit free agency until 2022, so he's part of the rebuilding plan, regardless of what he chooses to do.

 

Sandy Alomar was choice #1 for Bench coach and he declined out of respect for Ventura. I believe and will believe until it's not that he's the next permanent manager of the White Sox

 

Renteria is arguably a better fit at this point because he's familiar with the current players and the organization. Continuity is important, which is why a lot of bench coaches get promoted when their managers are axed. The Sox didn't hire a reasonably successful former manager as a bench coach to be a bench coach for long. That doesn't necessarily mean that Alomar won't be managing the Sox next year, but I think that Renteria has to be their first choice at this point. Alomar's refusal to take the bench coaching job this past winter may have also been the polite way of saying that he's not all that into the Sox.

 

[Hatchetman]

The problem with this approach is that by the time the kids you draft and sign as foreign free agents are going to be ready to contribute, your good players are going to be FA's. So it is either move them now when they have a lot of value or roll the dice at being able to re-sign them and if you can't there is a risk that they will walk away and you get nothing in return with the impending CBA negotiations.

 

 

And there's your answer.

 

It likely doesn't matter what they do because they are incompetent at any front office skill.

[flavum]

Well congrats. I don't think ESPN is a viable news outlet. Quintana has accumulated a 3.1 fWAR with a ERA of 2.63 and a 2.60 FIP. Corey Kluber is the next closest. If their system doesn't have him in or near the top, then their system is a f***ing joke that shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

He's having a great year, and I personally would have him in the top 5 now. But they don't vote now. In my opinion, come actual voting time--Sale, Hamels, Salazar, a few other guys will have proven out over 33 starts to be better than Q. And that's ok. Quintana is good, he's just never winning a Cy.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Here are fangraphs 2016 dashboard stats so far: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=2016&ind=0

 

And here are the Advanced Stats: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

He's clearly been the best pitcher in the AL so far this year.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If Rodon wants to take the money early, he'll do it regardless of what Boras wants. Rodon has been pretty solid for a young pitcher so far, but has not exactly been setting the world on fire, which reduces his leverage.

 

Regardless, Rodon can't hit free agency until 2022, so he's part of the rebuilding plan, regardless of what he chooses to do.

 

 

 

Renteria is arguably a better fit at this point because he's familiar with the current players and the organization. Continuity is important, which is why a lot of bench coaches get promoted when their managers are axed. The Sox didn't hire a reasonably successful former manager as a bench coach to be a bench coach for long. That doesn't necessarily mean that Alomar won't be managing the Sox next year, but I think that Renteria has to be their first choice at this point. Alomar's refusal to take the bench coaching job this past winter may have also been the polite way of saying that he's not all that into the Sox.

 

 

NO. It's because he saw the writing on the wall of Ventura getting fired in season and didn't want to be the Elephant in he room with people clamoring for him to be the replacement.

[Y2Jimmy0]

He's having a great year, and I personally would have him in the top 5 now. But they don't vote now. In my opinion, come actual voting time--Sale, Hamels, Salazar, a few other guys will have proven out over 33 starts to be better than Q. And that's ok. Quintana is good, he's just never winning a Cy.

 

 

Some of those guys may end up with better years. I never said they wouldn't. I said he should be the current leader as he's having the best season up to this point.

[NCsoxfan]

This has probably been addressed in the thread already, but IF we chose to be deadline sellers who would make sense to trade? Robertson? Anyone else?

 

 

[bmags]

This has probably been addressed in the thread already, but IF we chose to be deadline sellers who would make sense to trade? Robertson? Anyone else?

 

If you want to do it half assed again, Robertson/Jones/Quintana/Melky

 

If you want to really rebuild Sale/Abreu/Melky/Robertson.

 

Either way probably fine to keep one of Sale/Quintana. Abreu would make sense due to age/cost. We are selling low though.

[flavum]

Some of those guys may end up with better years. I never said they wouldn't. I said he should be the current leader as he's having the best season up to this point.

 

Hope he isn't an all star snub.

[NCsoxfan]

If you want to do it half assed again, Robertson/Jones/Quintana/Melky

 

If you want to really rebuild Sale/Abreu/Melky/Robertson.

 

Either way probably fine to keep one of Sale/Quintana. Abreu would make sense due to age/cost. We are selling low though.

 

Considering we do most things half-way, I would expect the former if anything!

[bmags]

Considering we do most things half-way, I would expect the former if anything!

 

I shouldn't have included Quintana in the half-assed one, but I think even if we "rebuild" trading both of Sale and Quintana may work against each other in value returned.

[Black_Jack29]

NO. It's because he saw the writing on the wall of Ventura getting fired in season and didn't want to be the Elephant in he room with people clamoring for him to be the replacement.

 

Yeah, it has to be that. It can't be because Alomar wanted to wait for the opportunity to work for a better-run organization.

 

Renteria had no qualms about taking the bench coach position and, presumably, the manager position next season. That tells you that he actually wants to work for the Sox. If I'm hiring and the guy I liked the most chose to continue in a lower-level position with a different organization, I have second thoughts about interviewing that guy again.

 

[GreenSox]

If you want to do it half assed again, Robertson/Jones/Quintana/Melky

 

If you want to really rebuild Sale/Abreu/Melky/Robertson.

 

Either way probably fine to keep one of Sale/Quintana. Abreu would make sense due to age/cost. We are selling low though.

Eaton as well.

 

The rebuild was progressing. They just stopped rebuilding prematurely. In the end, it cost time, money, opportunity cost from the prospects traded...and Trayce Thompson

 

This time they'll probably have to trade Sale. If they want to rebuild, I'd get ahead of this and see what Boston or the Nats would give us for him right now. Probably not enough.

 

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, it has to be that. It can't be because Alomar wanted to wait for the opportunity to work for a better-run organization.

 

Renteria had no qualms about taking the bench coach position and, presumably, the manager position next season. That tells you that he actually wants to work for the Sox. If I'm hiring and the guy I liked the most chose to continue in a lower-level position with a different organization, I have second thoughts about interviewing that guy again.

The Sox had to wait on Renteria because if Bud Black got the Washington job, he was going with him. We do know they wanted to speak to Sandy, to say one was the #1 choice, we really don't know, but the Sox seem happy with what they got. Sandy did say he wouldn't take the job out of respect to Robin, but I believe he refused to interview.

[daggins]

Guys i'd trade if the pain don't stop: Sale, Robertson, Melky, Jones

Guys I hold on to for dear life: Q, Rodon, Eaton

Guys with low trade value: Abreu, Frazier

 

You could completely rebuild the farm by trading those 4 guys and still have a few nice core pieces. All those guys in the 2 group are around til 2020 at least so you can build around them.

 

Not saying its the best plan but its better that 76-80 wins a season for the next 5 years or a $150MM payroll and 85-88 wins over the same span.

Edited June 20, 2016 by daggins

[Black_Jack29]

The Sox had to wait on Renteria because if Bud Black got the Washington job, he was going with him. We do know they wanted to speak to Sandy, to say one was the #1 choice, we really don't know, but the Sox seem happy with what they got. Sandy did say he wouldn't take the job out of respect to Robin, but I believe he refused to interview.

 

It's possible that Alomar didn't take the job for the reason that he publicly gave, but I think it's naive to take those comments at face value. If Alomar was interested in taking a managerial position in the foreseeable future, remaining as first-base coach on a team whose manager has a proven track record and isn't really on the hot seat doesn't make sense. My guess is that Alomar is either happy doing what he does in Cleveland, isn't interested in making the leap to manager any time soon, or doesn't think that managing the Sox would put him in a position to succeed (or perhaps a combination of all three).

Edited June 20, 2016 by Black_Jack29

[Flash Tizzle]

Blowing it up sounds appealing when a fan is raging after a series sweep, but you have to cool off and step back from the ledge. It's all too easy to talk about it (I've done it myself many times), but is anyone in here really patient enough to suck hard for the next 5 years while young players develop? Have all the possible ramifications of that kind of dramatic move been fully considered? I don't think so.

 

Does anyone in here think that there are ready takers for all of the guys we'd like to trade off? That's not a foregone conclusion and it's a big assumption. It's entirely possible that we couldn't get back in trade what we're seeking, in which case you can't make the trades.

 

Even if in a fantasy scenario we are able to trade each and every player for all of the return value we want, most minor league prospects don't pan out. What if we go through a rebuild, suck for 4-5 years, and have nothing to show for it? Then we suck for 5 more and we're approaching 20 years without making the playoffs. That is a distinct possibilitySox ownership knows that they already have modest attendance by league standards. Even when the team started the season hot at 23-10, the attendance still wasn't that great. They have to retain a few all-star type players to lure fans to the ballpark, otherwise there will be 10 people at the Cell. That said, they will never trade all of the guys away, especially not a super-bargain like Sale. It's not happening. There still must be a face of the franchise and Sale is it in 2016.

 

If the wager were available in Vegas, I would bet the house that the Sox will not do a total blow up no matter what happens this season. They will keep their core and start fresh at trying to build around it - same as they've always done.

 

I feel like every poor season after 2008 we've had this same discussion, and predictably, there have been the same arguments regurgitated against a full rebuild. What's so unbelievable to me is, a full rebuild (I define as trading several players with actual value) is the ONE idea we haven't tried! The White Sox have attempted variations of rebuilding on the fly, trading players at low value, patch working on second/third tier FA's......but never trading players with high value. We're afraid of a dwindling attendance, yet already experience that. We're afraid of prolonged losing, yet already experience that. We're afraid of not trusting Hahn, yet he hasn't been in a position to trade someone at their highest value. If he fails, so what? We've failed every other way the last several seasons. Atleast we'd know how Hahn would handle a rebuold.

 

Every year we delay this decision is another we're left floundering doing the same thing expecting different results. Read the last sentence from Doc's post-- our answer to this terrible team is to do exactly what we've done. LOL. I'm not suggesting immediate or Cub like results with rebuilding, but rather, an option that we haven't explored. I'm tired of having our "core" surrounded by garbage

Edited June 20, 2016 by Flash Tizzle

[harfman77]

This has probably been addressed in the thread already, but IF we chose to be deadline sellers who would make sense to trade? Robertson? Anyone else?

 

Robertson, Melky, Navarro, Shields, and maybe Frazier if he picks it up in July.

 

The rest would be on the market after the season when there would be more bidders available.