The way the rest of the season plays out

[caulfield12]

 

 

It's pretty obvious after watching all of these AL Central teams that the Indians have the best overall team, in terms of starting pitching and offense.

 

I believe you'll see the Indians win the AL Central, and the Royals take one of the two wild card spots.

 

Both teams will end up with between 88-93 wins.

 

 

It's also quite obvious the AL East and AL West have a lot more balance and parity 1-5 in their divisions.

 

Right now, you could see Boston, Baltimore or Toronto winning (toss up), and NY's not far behind and will have the resources (should they choose to) to add at the All-Star break instead of standing pat.

 

In the AL West, you've got the Rangers way out in front, then the Mariners/Astros (rapidly nearing .500 after a terrible start) and MAYBE even the Angels if Lincecum can inspire that team.

 

At any rate, it's a near certainty that Indians and probably the Royals will start to blow away the three remaining Central teams (Tigers/Sox/Twins) and start getting some significant separation.

 

 

The battle for the other wild card spot comes down to Balt/Boston/Tor/NY and Seattle/Houston. Those six teams are clearly head and shoulder above the Tigers and White Sox at the moment.

 

 

 

As the "Blow it Up" thread notes...the White Sox would be best served taking advantage of the Yankees not selling Miller/Chapman to the highest bidder and the Astros getting back into it, so that further narrows the list of teams looking to sell off bullpen parts.

 

You trade Robertson, listen hard on Nate Jones, trade Todd Frazier back to the NL, trade Cabrera, trade Brett Lawrie and hope that Austin Jackson comes back and proves he's healthy before the trade deadline so you can possibly get something back for him as well. Listen on Gonzalez, although offers probably will be few and far between that will get you anything useful. Anyone willing to give up ANYTHING for Duke/Jennings/Albers/Putnam, you listen long and hard. Avisail Garcia, HE GONE as well. Navarro and/or Avila are gone if you can get anything in return as well.

 

 

You build you team for 2017 around Eaton, Anderson, Abreu, Saladino (back starting, this time at 2B), Q, Sale, Rodon, Fulmer and the recent draft picks.

 

The ONLY area that's a pretty tough decision is what to do with Todd Frazier, because you don't have any 3B prospects ready to take his place (Trey/Davidson/Delmonico just won't get it done there yet)...and the lowball offers will be discouraging, unless the Mets are REALLY willing to overpay and give you something significant for the future (surely it won't be the equivalent of Michael Fulmer for Cespedes).

 

If you can't get what you want for Frazier, you almost have to hope for him to rebound in 2017.

 

 

Ranaudo and Turner (why not?) get the opportunity to pitch more in the 2nd half. Same with the likes of Kahnle and Michael Ynoa, Matt Purke as well. You use these final 100 or so games to have tryouts from those players like Hayes, Coats and Delmonico to see if they can hit major league pitching, and improve your June first round draft pick to the 7-10 spot.

 

You also let Kevan Smith and maybe even Narvaez getting some playing time, because...well, why not? Avila and Navarro are definitely not going to be part of the 2017 team. Meanwhile, one of the players you trade hopefully nets you a better catching prospect than you already have.

 

And you HOPE that Zack Collins is the real deal, because he will be pushed up to the big leagues incredibly fast. Same with Burdi.

 

[captain54]

It's pretty obvious after watching all of these AL Central teams that the Indians have the best overall team, in terms of starting pitching and offense.

 

I believe you'll see the Indians win the AL Central, and the Royals take one of the two wild card spots.

 

Both teams will end up with between 88-93 wins.

 

The White Sox start July with a breather in the schedule. I believe if they can stay within 5 games or less in loss column or a playoff spot, no matter how many teams in front, you will not see a sell off. I believe they are counting on Morneau, on Shields to figure it out, on other players available at the deadline, and on the fact that there a ton of divisional games in September

 

I have to believe Hahn and Williams are in hot water with JR. To start dismantling pieces that they probably convinced JR to sign off on, is in essence, an admission of their own failure

 

 

[caulfield12]

The more times they trot Shields out there, especially in front of the fans at USCF, the more Hahn will be signing his pink slip.

 

That stubbornness will be their ultimate undoing.

 

When you simply can't come close to beating the two best teams in your division consistently, it's going to take a lot more than hope and prayers to turn it around.

 

 

But yeah, I agree it won't happen because it's not in the self-interest of Hahn or Williams to do so...whereas they will keep trying to convince JR they can turn it around. "Gamblers' chance." Only when he says "enough's enough" and puts his foot down will that actually happen. One thing, you can be virtually certain that JR's going to be super reluctant to take on any more salary commitments that go beyond 2016.

Edited June 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[captain54]

But yeah, I agree it won't happen because it's not in the self-interest of Hahn or Williams to do so...whereas they will keep trying to convince JR they can turn it around. "Gamblers' chance." Only when he says "enough's enough" and puts his foot down will that actually happen. One thing, you can be virtually certain that JR's going to be super reluctant to take on any more salary commitments that go beyond 2016.

 

I was watching a crazy thing on YouTube. A prank, or social experiment, if you will. They had a guy go up to random women and ask them if they wanted to have sex. Out of the 200 women he approached, only 1 said "yes"

 

Translated roughly to the White Sox philosophy, they would tell you "hey look, our approach worked once, it can happen again if we just keep at it"

 

[SleepyWhiteSox]

So all they gotta do is trade their mediocre and bad players for good and/or better players and they're ready to go in 2017. Gotcha.

[caulfield12]

So all they gotta do is trade their mediocre and bad players for good and/or better players and they're ready to go in 2017. Gotcha.

 

If Frazier, Robertson and Cabrera don't have any value...or Nate Jones, or Lawrie...then how would we possibly be competing in 2017, anyway?

 

 

[LVSoxFan]

I appreciate the thought put into how we sell off/trade the players to get something better on the field but with respect, nothing changes as long as this is our management, from KW down. They created this debacle, year after year.

 

Sadly I think nothing changes as long as JR is the owner because he either doesn't care or is delusional.

 

I don't know what could effect a top-down change. Season ticket-holder revolt? Because clearly awful attendance has not motivated JR.

 

Thoughts?

[caulfield12]

LV, that might have worked 25 years ago, or certainly in the age of Veeck.

 

Today, season ticket sales are only 20-30% of revenue for mostly MLB teams....and the White Sox are guaranteed XXX amount in state subsidies if attendance falls below a certain threshold.

 

Finally, you have the fact that a lot of corporations buy season tickets for entertaining clients and use them as a tax write off for entertainment/business purposes...so even if you could get 50% of the individual season ticket buyers on board, you'd still have only a 25% effect from a practical standpoint.

 

Would that be enough to lower the value of the franchise or pressure the Reinsdorfs to sell? Probably not, they'd likely be more stubborn and intransigent in the face of such a rebuke from their customers, since they always ACT like they know best anyway and aren't very much concerned with the opinions of fans on how they run the organization.

Edited June 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[SCCWS]

LV, that might have worked 25 years ago, or certainly in the age of Veeck.

 

Today, season ticket sales are only 20-30% of revenue for mostly MLB teams....and the White Sox are guaranteed XXX amount in state subsidies if attendance falls below a certain threshold.

Finally, you have the fact that a lot of corporations buy season tickets for entertaining clients and use them as a tax write off for entertainment/business purposes...so even if you could get 50% of the individual season ticket buyers on board, you'd still have only a 25% effect from a practical standpoint.

 

Would that be enough to lower the value of the franchise or pressure the Reinsdorfs to sell? Probably not, they'd likely be more stubborn and intransigent in the face of such a rebuke from their customers, since they always ACT like they know best anyway and aren't very much concerned with the opinions of fans on how they run the organization.

 

Not as much now-a-days. Without getting too technical, it is more difficult for a company to write off entertainment tickets. Speaking from experience, I often was offered tickets to sporting events from companies. But rarely did the company take me as opposed to giving out tickets to use. Corporate tickets are only allowed to be written off if the event involves a "business meeting" ( i.e. a company rep present). So corporate boxes and food provided tend to be easier to write off over grandstand tickets.

 

But I am under the impression the White Sox do not have a large number of corporate tickets which is why they get some significant swings in attendance numbers based on the game.

 

I disagree on the wildcard. I think both will come from AL east. I do think KC could take the Central over Cleveland but only one from Central will make it.

Edited June 19, 2016 by SCCWS

[caulfield12]

When there are three "good to great" teams in the AL East, the Yankees (looking to add instead of subtract now, Sabathia's pitching great and they have the best bullpen in MLB) and TB's the worst team and they're only 4 games under .500, that's a MUCH MUCH more difficult path to have double wild cards.

 

Those teams are going to beat each other up. And Toronto exhausted most of their top prospects for trade purposes last year, so they don't have as much ammunition (although they will go for it again with Bautista and Encarnacion on the way out).

 

The Tigers are going to to fall back with the White Sox, and then you have the Twins. Much easier for the Indians and Royals to deal with.

Edited June 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[Texsox]

Not as much now-a-days. Without getting too technical, it is more difficult for a company to write off entertainment tickets. Speaking from experience, I often was offered tickets to sporting events from companies. But rarely did the company take me as opposed to giving out tickets to use. Corporate tickets are only allowed to be written off if the event involves a "business meeting" ( i.e. a company rep present). So corporate boxes and food provided tend to be easier to write off over grandstand tickets.

 

But I am under the impression the White Sox do not have a large number of corporate tickets which is why they get some significant swings in attendance numbers based on the game.

 

I disagree on the wildcard. I think both will come from AL east. I do think KC could take the Central over Cleveland but only one from Central will make it.

 

I also believe some people believe that businesses can just spent freely because it is a tax "write off". Imagine spending a dollar and getting back 30 cents. How long can you do that? They have to increase their business to support that entertainment. Back when the Cubs played a lot more day games I entertained a little bit at Wrigley. We could have lunch before the game, hit the game, and be home almost for dinner. For the buyer it was a day away from the office. Sox games at night were also fun, but it had to be a customer that like night life.

 

 

[Real]

sox will never sell off. not while JR/KW are calling the shots. they have nothing to gain by doing this as i dont see them sticking around long (JR wont be around much longer and KW will eventually move on to greener pastures)

[caulfield12]

I should have written what they SHOULD do.

 

I'm sure there will be 2-3 posters vehemently arguing that they're only 5 1/2 games back in the division, the Wild Card race is tightly bunched, but we heard the same arguments in 2015 and the momentum last year in July was actually more positive than it's likely to be this year...and Hahn just stood pat and refused to make any decisions.

 

They can't be back in that same exact place this July. It would be ridiculous just to keep treading water in purgatory.

 

 

This time last year, we were 30-39 and 11 games back. 2016, 33-36 and 5 1/2 GB, although there are more teams now bunched in front of us in the division. KC is not as good as last year, the Indians are probably the best team and the Tigers are about the equivalent of the Twins (lots of exciting offense but lacking in spots 4-5 in the rotation and a weak bullpen.)

Edited June 20, 2016 by caulfield12