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Time to Trade Chris Sale?


Y2Jimmy0

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 03:04 PM)
OK. The question remains, who do you think he would sell to? I think it's sold after he dies. He will always own the team.

 

I agree. Unless his health goes south in a hurry I think he keeps it until the day he passes. Then? Nobody really knows.

 

I've asked some folks I know in the media just what they thought if there was any speculation and nobody really knows.

 

Phil Rogers told me that actually had a meeting about this in the Tribune sports department to try to get a sense of what could happen and plan for it and there wasn't a consensus.

 

Mark

 

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The Red Sox are 16th in fWAR for pitching. Not great, not awful. Price/Wright/Porcello is a fine trio. They definitely need a mid-rotation guy. But Chris Sale? They could use those chips to improve someplace they really need it, like, say, catcher. Hmm who could they get to fill in there?

 

The Rangers and Pirates are at 21 and 28, respectively. That is bad and REALLY bad for contending teams.

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QUOTE (daggins @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 06:18 PM)
The Red Sox are 16th in fWAR for pitching. Not great, not awful. Price/Wright/Porcello is a fine trio. They definitely need a mid-rotation guy. But Chris Sale? They could use those chips to improve someplace they really need it, like, say, catcher. Hmm who could they get to fill in there?

 

The Rangers and Pirates are at 21 and 28, respectively. That is bad and REALLY bad for contending teams.

 

I think the Red Sox would be more likely to trade for a guy like Q.

 

A team that is a wild card contender will make a big splash/overpay for Sale to go for a championship. If we go the minor league route and get some great talent evaluators we might be able to get 6-8 guys back. Hopefully 1 would be an all-star and 2 more would be regulars. Could solve 1/3 of our lineup and slot in Anderson/Eaton as vets with Collins/etc coming up through the system and supplement with a big bat at 1B/DH and OF down the road and that could be a pretty good team.

Edited by soxforlife05
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 02:59 PM)
Except JR doesn't own 100% of the team.

 

No one knows exactly how much JR owns. It's never been publicly revealed. In a 2013 interview, JR said the investors themselves aren't even sure what JR's share of the pie is

Edited by captain54
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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 08:23 PM)
Boston fans are probably salivating at Sale's performance tonight over their Sox

Boston writers will have the Sale trade to the Red Sox ironed out by Wednesday morning. The White Sox should get a robust collection of prospects that Boston writers and fans do not want. ;)

Edited by BlackSox13
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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 08:29 PM)
Boston writers will have the Sale trade to the Red Sox ironed out by Wednesday morning. The White Sox should get a robust collection of prospects that Boston writers and fans do not want. ;)

A bunch of Boston fans I saw talking online seemed to agree on Sale for Moncada and Espinoza :lolhitting

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My problem with trading a guy like Sale is more theoretical.

 

You are highly certain (outside an injury) that Sale is worth X per year (WAR or whatever) for Y years.

 

Even if you acquire a handful of high prospects the probability and therefore expected value of the prospects WAR ends up being a big risk. So to get equal value on an expected value basis, you actually have to get back a return such that the average return would warrant it, but if they all hit you'd be way ahead. This is necessary since the probability of any prospect "hitting" is far below probability of Sale maintaining his value. Moreover, you'd never do a deal where you'd need ALL the prospects to hit in order for it to justify the return.

 

So maybe this is a dumb mathematical way of looking at it, but it's essentially scenario analysis. You'd trade a known quantity to get a range of potential outcomes. And given how good Chris is, they'd have to trade a ridiculous package (prob more than we even think) to warrant it from an expected value perspective.

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 09:46 PM)
My problem with trading a guy like Sale is more theoretical.

 

You are highly certain (outside an injury) that Sale is worth X per year (WAR or whatever) for Y years.

 

Even if you acquire a handful of high prospects the probability and therefore expected value of the prospects WAR ends up being a big risk. So to get equal value on an expected value basis, you actually have to get back a return such that the average return would warrant it, but if they all hit you'd be way ahead. This is necessary since the probability of any prospect "hitting" is far below probability of Sale maintaining his value. Moreover, you'd never do a deal where you'd need ALL the prospects to hit in order for it to justify the return.

 

So maybe this is a dumb mathematical way of looking at it, but it's essentially scenario analysis. You'd trade a known quantity to get a range of potential outcomes. And given how good Chris is, they'd have to trade a ridiculous package (prob more than we even think) to warrant it from an expected value perspective.

 

This ownership group is not going to re-sign him though. So you are risking an injury to Sale over those non-contending years and at the same time he will be gone from the team by the time the next window for contention opens up. The cumulative WAR acquired through trade will be more valuable down the road rather than used up by having control over Sale in non-contending seasons. Instead you can acquire top prospects to speed up the rebuild assuming you have the correct talent evaluators in place and draft well. Then we may be in a position to retain all our future stars by the time the next contention window opens up and our new ownership is in place.

Edited by soxforlife05
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I would be ok with us trading Q for a collection of players, I mean s***, we don't score any runs for him anyway. I'm almost starting to think it's not even a statistical anomaly anymore and the players may actually be conscious of it at this point.

 

Trade Quintana to Boston for Betts, Moncada, Benintendi, and Owens.

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jun 22, 2016 -> 06:26 AM)
I would be ok with us trading Q for a collection of players, I mean s***, we don't score any runs for him anyway. I'm almost starting to think it's not even a statistical anomaly anymore and the players may actually be conscious of it at this point.

 

Trade Quintana to Boston for Betts, Moncada, Benintendi, and Owens.

I agree we should trade Q. The Sox simply cannot score runs for him, so be merciful and trade him for 4 very good prospects. It's not working out cause the Sox won't play ball the days he pitches. They just won't.

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jun 21, 2016 -> 11:26 PM)
I would be ok with us trading Q for a collection of players, I mean s***, we don't score any runs for him anyway. I'm almost starting to think it's not even a statistical anomaly anymore and the players may actually be conscious of it at this point.

 

Trade Quintana to Boston for Betts, Moncada, Benintendi, and Owens.

 

 

They could get him for the three prospects.

 

No way they include Betts in the deal as well.

 

 

Maybe Moncada, Benitendi, Owens and Swihart/Vasquez, something like that.

I also don't think they'd be will willing to give up Rodriguez in return, either. Not for Q.

 

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