Tim Anderson

[bmags]

I thought after his first walk we may start seeing that 1-2 BB per week thing. This is the month where I expect some more to come up. 6% walk rate by year end is probably the high end of the target by now. But I hope we start to see 4% soon.

[The Sir]

I was thinking about the ROY thing too.

 

If Anderson continues this pace for the rest of the year, he will have 142 hits, 35 doubles, 4 triples, 18 HRs, 35 RBIs, 75 Rs and 9 steals. It also puts his WAR at 5.8.

 

I think that puts him ahead of Mazara but behind Fulmer. He'd definitely have a shot though.

[OmarComing25]

That .418 BABIP will come down, though given that he ran super-high BABIPs throughout his minor-league career I think he'll be a .340-.350 BABIP guy like Austin Jackson. Still a long way to fall from where he is, but even a .270/.280/.420 line would be a big improvement from what we've had at SS recently. Currently on pace for 9 bWAR over a full 162 game season, which is obviously unsustainable, but if he keeps playing defense the way he has, takes a few more walks and can get his K-rate down to 25% then I'd be happy.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I was thinking about the ROY thing too.

 

If Anderson continues this pace for the rest of the year, he will have 142 hits, 35 doubles, 4 triples, 18 HRs, 35 RBIs, 75 Rs and 9 steals. It also puts his WAR at 5.8.

 

I think that puts him ahead of Mazara but behind Fulmer. He'd definitely have a shot though.

 

Fulmer will probably have a bit of regression in the second half though. He's already around 85 innings pitched this year. He never went over 125 innings pitched in the minors. I could really see him running out of gas come late August into September. But it's also a long shot for Anderson to continue his pace as well. His BABIP will normalize. The BB/K rates could end up biting him in the ass and it's hard to imagine him continue hitting a HR every 25 at bats.

Edited July 5, 2016 by lasttriptotulsa

[Bigsoxhurt35]

@ChuckGarfien Most hits in the American League in the last 7 days:

Tim Anderson 12

Josh Donaldson 12

Jose Ramirez 12

Kendrys Morales 12

 

 

 

Tim is a multi-hit game machine right now. So awesome to have a hitter come up and produce.

His defense has been better than advertised. Plus as he said, he's playing on professional fields now not minor league fields. I honestly think he'll improve his BB rate as he gets older and matures. He's held off on some pitches that Avi always swings at. He may never take a ton of BBs but he gets on base and his speed is a legit threat that will scare some teams once he learns these pitchers moves and starts swiping bases at a good clip.

[bmags]

Silly to do "at this pace" with Anderson. He is developing and if he really only has 4-5 walks at end of year I will be pretty horrified. I'm confident he will adjust, because I have to believe in him.

[The Sir]

I know that stuff, and I'm not saying he will hit those numbers, or that I'll be disappointed if he doesn't. I just think it's a fun way to show how absurdly good he's been so far.

[brian310]

I love what Tim Anderson has done so far but what is the ideal spot in the batting order for him? If his obp is mostly going to stay close to what his batting average is, he needs to hit like .330 to be considered a good leadoff hitter in my opinion. A .301 obp from your leadoff hitter is not good.

 

Edit: I do know he may make adjustments and become more patient over time but I'm mostly talking for now.

Edited July 8, 2016 by chisoxfan310

[hogan873]

I love what Tim Anderson has done so far but what is the ideal spot in the batting order for him? If his obp is mostly going to stay close to what his batting average is, he needs to hit like .330 to be considered a good leadoff hitter in my opinion. A .301 obp from your leadoff hitter is not good.

 

Edit: I do know he may make adjustments and become more patient over time but I'm mostly talking for now.

He would definitely need to get better at taking walks to be a good lead-off guy. But the combination of him and Eaton at the top of the order is working so well. For now, I don't think the Sox want to change anything. Ultimately if he doesn't take more walks, I would think he would be better suited as a #2 or #6 hitter. He'd be decent in the #2 spot because he makes contact and has the speed. He might do well down around #6 with his higher BA and decent power. I would imagine that the Sox are working with him to become more patient.

[FT35]

I love what Tim Anderson has done so far but what is the ideal spot in the batting order for him? If his obp is mostly going to stay close to what his batting average is, he needs to hit like .330 to be considered a good leadoff hitter in my opinion. A .301 obp from your leadoff hitter is not good.

 

Edit: I do know he may make adjustments and become more patient over time but I'm mostly talking for now.

 

You're right...I think Eaton is the best "leadoff hitter" for this team as far as OBP. However, if he's up 2nd, what difference does it make? You still have your top 2 table setters causing havoc at the top of your order--both of them are tough outs and demand attention on the bases. Eaton gets on base more, but we will soon see that Anderson turns singles into doubles QUITE often with his base stealing ability. You can make a case for either. I actually think it is smart for now to have Eaton batting 2nd instead of Anderson because there are so many roles the 2nd spot plays. Hitting first allows Anderson to get up with 1 focus--get on base. Leave the situational hitting up to Eaton to move Anderson over or draw a walk in front of Abreu. If Anderson's power continues to develop and he keeps getting his hits, you might eventually see him hit 3rd in more of a run producer spot. The only other spot you put a low OBP guy is 7-9 and I think you want to see him bat more than that. In my opinion, he's a top of the order guy that you want to maximize his ABs and like you said, over time let him learn to be more selective.

[brian310]

You're right...I think Eaton is the best "leadoff hitter" for this team as far as OBP. However, if he's up 2nd, what difference does it make? You still have your top 2 table setters causing havoc at the top of your order--both of them are tough outs and demand attention on the bases. Eaton gets on base more, but we will soon see that Anderson turns singles into doubles QUITE often with his base stealing ability. You can make a case for either. I actually think it is smart for now to have Eaton batting 2nd instead of Anderson because there are so many roles the 2nd spot plays. Hitting first allows Anderson to get up with 1 focus--get on base. Leave the situational hitting up to Eaton to move Anderson over or draw a walk in front of Abreu. If Anderson's power continues to develop and he keeps getting his hits, you might eventually see him hit 3rd in more of a run producer spot. The only other spot you put a low OBP guy is 7-9 and I think you want to see him bat more than that. In my opinion, he's a top of the order guy that you want to maximize his ABs and like you said, over time let him learn to be more selective.

 

Yeah as of now I wouldn't change anything. But if they were to acquire another OBP type of bat, you could put that bat leadoff or second and move Anderson down in the order to lengthen the lineup. For now I guess it does make sense to not mess with anything

[southsider2k5]

I love what Tim Anderson has done so far but what is the ideal spot in the batting order for him? If his obp is mostly going to stay close to what his batting average is, he needs to hit like .330 to be considered a good leadoff hitter in my opinion. A .301 obp from your leadoff hitter is not good.

 

Edit: I do know he may make adjustments and become more patient over time but I'm mostly talking for now.

 

Long term, probably not. But while both he and Eaton are hot in the 1-2 spots, and the team is winning, you roll with it.

[greg775]

He would definitely need to get better at taking walks to be a good lead-off guy. But the combination of him and Eaton at the top of the order is working so well. For now, I don't think the Sox want to change anything.

Aren't the Sox like one or two over .500 with Anderson aboard? That's not exactly a great team. Folks, I worship Anderson. I have no complaints. But cmon. It's embarrassing to have a leadoff hitter with one walk in as many at bats as he has. He has no chance of drawing a walk which means the law of averages over 500 or 550 at bats is going to give him at maximum, about a .275 average. If he was selective and could walk a reasonable amount, he'd be AWESOME. he's got some pop, so mercifully move him to fifth or sixth in the order. If you must have him that high, bat him second and he can advance Eaton. If you are worried about Tim's strikeouts, again, bat him fifth or sixth.

It's just beyond belief this guy can't get on base unless it's via bat on ball. MOVE HIM DOWN, ROBIN. It's just gonna be a matter of time the baseball gods thrust him in a 1-for-25 type slump and get that average way down. Why? Cause he won't walk.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Long term, probably not. But while both he and Eaton are hot in the 1-2 spots, and the team is winning, you roll with it.

It definitely has bolstered the offense. It's really boosted our 2 spot. Little bit of a hit OBP because ya don't get the walks but I like this 1-2. Tonight showed a flash with the double steal. Their speed can cause problems

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Aren't the Sox like one or two over .500 with Anderson aboard? That's not exactly a great team. Folks, I worship Anderson. I have no complaints. But cmon. It's embarrassing to have a leadoff hitter with one walk in as many at bats as he has. He has no chance of drawing a walk which means the law of averages over 500 or 550 at bats is going to give him at maximum, about a .275 average. If he was selective and could walk a reasonable amount, he'd be AWESOME. he's got some pop, so mercifully move him to fifth or sixth in the order. If you must have him that high, bat him second and he can advance Eaton. If you are worried about Tim's strikeouts, again, bat him fifth or sixth.

It's just beyond belief this guy can't get on base unless it's via bat on ball. MOVE HIM DOWN, ROBIN. It's just gonna be a matter of time the baseball gods thrust him in a 1-for-25 type slump and get that average way down. Why? Cause he won't walk.

Then who goes into the 2 spot? That was a black hole before Eaton. He's at least competent there.

[greg775]

Then who goes into the 2 spot? That was a black hole before Eaton. He's at least competent there.

Bat Anderson second if you don't wanna move him to fifth or sixth. He will strike out some, but since he won't walk, he'll either K or put the ball in play which will move Eaton.

[BlackSox13]

Bat Anderson second if you don't wanna move him to fifth or sixth. He will strike out some, but since he won't walk, he'll either K or put the ball in play which will move Eaton.

So you want to take Anderson's speed and .300 BA out of the 1-hole simply due to a lack of walks?

[GreenSox]

Anderson is going to have to take more walks for him to be a consistently excellent hitter. No question. Hopefully that will come.

But I see no reason to move him out of the 1 hole now. He's comfortable there, he's developing. I don't see the issue.

[gosoxgo2005]

Serious question, what happened on his caught stealing yesterday? AJ has never one time thrown out a runner by 30 feet like he threw out Anderson yesterday. Did he slip? Horrific jump? I didn't see the replay, just saw that he was so far from second when the 2B/SS (I forget which one) caught the ball that he had the time to turn around and try and get back to first.

[lostfan]

Tim Anderson kind of doesn't suck.

[Eminor3rd]

Serious question, what happened on his caught stealing yesterday? AJ has never one time thrown out a runner by 30 feet like he threw out Anderson yesterday. Did he slip? Horrific jump? I didn't see the replay, just saw that he was so far from second when the 2B/SS (I forget which one) caught the ball that he had the time to turn around and try and get back to first.

 

It was a really terrible jump, and he looked like he gave up on running hard a bit too early. He probably still would have been out if he went hard all the way, but it at least would have looked like a normal CS.

[Jose Abreu]

Serious question, what happened on his caught stealing yesterday? AJ has never one time thrown out a runner by 30 feet like he threw out Anderson yesterday. Did he slip? Horrific jump? I didn't see the replay, just saw that he was so far from second when the 2B/SS (I forget which one) caught the ball that he had the time to turn around and try and get back to first.

I was at the game and was watching him/the pitcher the whole time. It was one of the worst jumps I've ever seen. That's all

[southsideirish71]

Aren't the Sox like one or two over .500 with Anderson aboard? That's not exactly a great team. Folks, I worship Anderson. I have no complaints. But cmon. It's embarrassing to have a leadoff hitter with one walk in as many at bats as he has. He has no chance of drawing a walk which means the law of averages over 500 or 550 at bats is going to give him at maximum, about a .275 average. If he was selective and could walk a reasonable amount, he'd be AWESOME. he's got some pop, so mercifully move him to fifth or sixth in the order. If you must have him that high, bat him second and he can advance Eaton. If you are worried about Tim's strikeouts, again, bat him fifth or sixth.

It's just beyond belief this guy can't get on base unless it's via bat on ball. MOVE HIM DOWN, ROBIN. It's just gonna be a matter of time the baseball gods thrust him in a 1-for-25 type slump and get that average way down. Why? Cause he won't walk.

 

Thank god you are not in charge. So move him to second and what have him bunt or hit to the right side all the time because it fits some baseball formula you like.

[Jake]

Of note, regarding Anderson's defense:

 

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) gives him a +3 thus far, on the strength of Runs on Plays Made (rPM) with 0s for Runs on Good Fielding Plays (rGFP) and Runs on Double Plays (rGDP). That's a good pace and matches my eye test that he's making most of the plays he should, doesn't look the best on double plays, and hasn't completed any real eye-popping plays.

 

Revised Zone Rating which is computed a bit more transparently also likes him. It's simply a percentage of the time he makes the play on balls hit into the zones that a shortstop fields at least 50% of the time. He's .830 on this metric, which is 6th best among SS with at least 100 innings.

 

UZR gives him an overall 0.6, which computes out to 3.7 over 150 games. Not "oh my god" good, but good. This is another stat that is relative to the average SS, so being above is a good sign. All of his value in UZR comes from not making errors, while he is slightly negative (-0.3) in both range and double plays. This is in basic agreement with DRS, though it's a hair more conservative.

 

I think most of us like him from the eye test as well, it's definitely a far cry from the player that just a year ago many still wondered whether he would be good enough to spend any MLB time at the position. You can see some of the roughness around the edges, especially with footwork on double plays, but he exudes baseball talent on defense IMO. He's been surprisingly sure-handed on routine balls and you can see flashes of that big range and playmaking ability. I'm not sure whether he's truly an above average SS or is benefiting from the kinds of opportunities so far, but he looks like a real MLB SS and perhaps a good one in the long run.

[greg775]

Of note, regarding Anderson's defense:

 

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) gives him a +3 thus far, on the strength of Runs on Plays Made (rPM) with 0s for Runs on Good Fielding Plays (rGFP) and Runs on Double Plays (rGDP). That's a good pace and matches my eye test that he's making most of the plays he should, doesn't look the best on double plays, and hasn't completed any real eye-popping plays.

 

Revised Zone Rating which is computed a bit more transparently also likes him. It's simply a percentage of the time he makes the play on balls hit into the zones that a shortstop fields at least 50% of the time. He's .830 on this metric, which is 6th best among SS with at least 100 innings.

 

UZR gives him an overall 0.6, which computes out to 3.7 over 150 games. Not "oh my god" good, but good. This is another stat that is relative to the average SS, so being above is a good sign. All of his value in UZR comes from not making errors, while he is slightly negative (-0.3) in both range and double plays. This is in basic agreement with DRS, though it's a hair more conservative.

 

I think most of us like him from the eye test as well, it's definitely a far cry from the player that just a year ago many still wondered whether he would be good enough to spend any MLB time at the position. You can see some of the roughness around the edges, especially with footwork on double plays, but he exudes baseball talent on defense IMO. He's been surprisingly sure-handed on routine balls and you can see flashes of that big range and playmaking ability. I'm not sure whether he's truly an above average SS or is benefiting from the kinds of opportunities so far, but he looks like a real MLB SS and perhaps a good one in the long run.

Just think if we had Anderson, Semien and Trayce! Wow we'd be excited and praising our system. Instead, two horrific trades letting Trayce and Semien go. As much as we rail on our system, we had 3 studs right there home grown and let two go.