Carlos Gonzalez expresses interest to be traded

[Balta1701]

Latest speculation was Bruce to the Nationals, fwiw...so that's one Cargo suitor off the list, if it does in fact take place.

Way too early to be "taking teams off the list" based on speculation.

[caulfield12]

Gerardo "Rico Suave" Parra is not pleased with this announcement...so much for CarGo recruiting him to Colorado.

 

 

[Balta1701]

I think he also had some injury issues that contributed to that in Oakland

 

 

Oakland is also about the worst hitters park in baseball, so that isn't exactly a big shock. The spacious foul territory creates a lot of extra outs.

A quick double check shows that his OPS+ (Ballpark adjusted) fell from 140 to 120 upon moving to Oakland, so there was still a notable dropoff. Cargo this year is putting up a 124 OPS+, 114 OPS+ last season. If he were to see a 20 point drop in OPS+ upon moving to Chicago, that would put him right around what Jose Abreu has produced this year.

 

Also worth considering - CarGo's overall production is much more slugging heavy than Holliday's was. When Holliday moved to Oakland, his OBP fell by 0.02, his Slugging fell by 0.09. That could put Gonzalez at risk for a bigger dropoff in total performance than Holliday.

 

Injuries certainly could have played a part in that as well...but that's where it becomes hard to figure this picture out. Holliday is about the only guy with a seemingly strong career after leaving Coors, but there's reason to look at his numbers and expect that just about anyone is going to experience some dropoff. How much of a dropoff and how rapidly could they adapt to hitting well elsewhere are the hard questions. If Holliday is the ideal situation, he still suffered a dropoff for several months and that'd be troublesome in a pennant race.

 

If I had to guess, I don't think (if healthy) he's a .750 OPS player outside of Coors, but I also don't think he would hold up an .850 OPS, at least not at first. Maybe given time to adapt to a new ballpark he could get above there, but I think you have to expect some significant ballpark effect on him.

[OmarComing25]

Here we go. Knew this was coming

 

.750 OPS away from Coors field in 2016; .758 in 2015.

 

That's Rios. Hahn set that value: Leury Garcia. (really should be less considering that Rios made 60% of Cargo's money)

 

Paying anything more than the value of a .758 OPS earning $20 million a year is wishcasting. That's all it is.

 

If we want a Rockie, get Blackmon

http://www.purplerow.com/2014/5/15/5712224...mbers-are-lying

 

Now the plot really thickens. While the data does confirm the general idea of teams naturally hitting better at home than on the road due to familiarly of playing in the same park over and over again, the rest of the National League falls into a pile where that advantage is confined to a small window between four and nine notches on the wRC+ scale. If you average out the difference in wRC+ numbers at home and on the road for the other 14 National League teams, it comes to a difference of seven.

 

However, for the Rockies, that number jumps to a staggering 17, which is miles and miles outside of what we see from any other team. Again, with a park adjusted stat like wRC+, we shouldn't see wildness like this. It's supposed to compensate for the environment and tell us how good a player or team is offensively regardless of location or time.

 

This leads us to a chilling reality where one of two earth-shattering notes almost has to be true. Either wRC+ is wrong when it comes to the Rockies and how it adjusts its formula to Coors Field, or the Rockies are playing a game that's rigged against them.

 

If the former explanation is correct, the road wRC+ numbers are correct and the Park Effect formula does not penalize our hitters enough for the offensive boon they receive for playing 81 games a year a mile above sea level. In this scenario, the Rockies have actually put the worst offensive product on the field in the National League since 2002 as indicated by their road wRC+ number. It's only been masked by the generosity of Coors Field and the inability of wRC+ to properly account for it. It seems unlikely with guys like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gonzalez on these rosters, but it would fit one of the plausible scenarios.

 

If the second explanation is correct, wRC+ is accurately (or very close to accurately) accounting for Coors Field, and in that scenario the Rockies since 2002 have actually put out an offense closer to the 99 wRC+ number. However, because the Rockies' hitters have to adjust to the abrupt changes in breaking pitches at sea level, their offense gets considerably worse on the road to the point where it causes them to lose an extra handful of games every season that no other team would lose.

 

The road numbers on the other hand tend to support the idea that the Rockies are operating at a competitive disadvantage to all the other teams in baseball. Like a drug addict not being able to function when they come off a high without a fix, Rockies' hitters don't seem to be able to function properly when they come off the high of hitting at Coors Field.

 

Pretty much every hitter hits better at home than on the road anyway, so you can't just take road splits at face value. But it's particularly stark with Rockies' hitters, making their road splits even more unreliable.

 

Also, now you're against Rios again? Make up your mind man.

Edited July 7, 2016 by OmarComing25

[oldsox]

Rockies would really like to bring up David Dahl from minors. Drafted same years as Courtney Hawkins, I believe, but a much better prospect. They need to move Cargo to make room.

 

I don't think the price would be as high as others think.

[Chicago White Sox]

Everyone knows there is a hangover effect from playing at Coors. Combine that with the fact that most hitters perform better at home than on the road to begin with and it's absolutely ridiculous to simply spout off a guy's road OPS and say he's not a good hitter. Not surprising in the least it me GreenSox making this argument.

[spiderman]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/carl...in-a-trade.html

 

I think CarGo would be a great addition to the lineup. Wonder what it would take to get him here?

 

The White Sox lineup needs 2 more legitimate run producers. This would be a great start.

[Condor13]

Adams is only out 7 to 10 days so he could easily be traded still

[oldsox]

Now Cargo is saying he did not make the statement about wanting to be traded.

[elrockinMT]

Rockies would really like to bring up David Dahl from minors. Drafted same years as Courtney Hawkins, I believe, but a much better prospect. They need to move Cargo to make room.

 

I don't think the price would be as high as others think.

 

If this were the case then kick the tires in that deal. But, don't give up the best in the farm

[GreenSox]

Everyone knows there is a hangover effect from playing at Coors. Combine that with the fact that most hitters perform better at home than on the road to begin with and it's absolutely ridiculous to simply spout off a guy's road OPS and say he's not a good hitter. Not surprising in the least it me GreenSox making this argument.

 

 

Be precise. I said that his road OPS is about what Rios' OPS was, and simply suggested he has equal value (especially as his salary is about twice as high). It wasn't I who set the.752 OPS value at Leury Garcia.

Sure most players hit better at home....but most players do NOT have the split differentials Cargo has.

Comparisons with Holiday are ridiculous. Holliday had road OPS >.800 in each of his last 3 years in Colorado, including .892 his last year. Cargo's are in the .750 range. And he's older than Holliday was. And his D is poor. And he's paid nearly $20 million a year.

 

Of course I'm getting attacked. I always get attacked when suggesting that trading for players at or past their prime, especially those with bad splits, won't help the team win...and it's doubled down when it involves a fave like Cargo or anyone on the Brewers.

Edited July 8, 2016 by GreenSox

[OmarComing25]

Be precise. I said that his road OPS is about what Rios' OPS was, and simply suggested he has equal value (especially as his salary is about twice as high).

Sure most players hit better at home....but most players do NOT have the split differentials Cargo has.

Comparisons with Holiday are ridiculous. Holliday had road OPS >.800 in each of his last 3 years in Colorado, including .892 his last year. Cargo's are in the .750 range. And he's older than Holliday was. And his D is poor. And he's paid nearly $20 million a year.

 

Of course I'm getting attacked. I know I'll get attacked when suggesting that trading for players at or past their prime, especially those with bad splits, won't help the team win. It doesn't matter how much evidence there is: from Dunn to Laroche to, yes, Frazier (who hasn't come close to Cincy numbers). I was beaten down for suggesting the Shark trade was lousy; and the Frazier trade.

It doesn't matter that the winning organizations don't make trades like this. People want those "stars" falling as they may be. 7 non-playoff seasons in a row be damned.

You're getting attacked because you're ignoring information that goes against your argument.